Aaron Lanni

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@negligible_cap @PythiaR Consulting is first thing companies are cutting to increase AI budgets. They missed on SW tied to mainframe workloads. Its more a mainframe miss than SW miss.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@compoundpapi @45WallSt Totally

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@compoundpapi @45WallSt Not a bad comparison, minus Ashtead’s cyclical earnings which makes it harder to value IMO.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@PrefShares The 16B$ Waymo funding round + 1P expansion is hard for me to process. Is there a chance it tries to build a human/AV network faster than Uber can add AVs to its network?

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@negligible_cap If deploying agents was easy MSFT wouldn’t be putting 2.5B$ in a new company to help with that.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@Invesquotes Remember when litho intensity concerns, China slowdown, sluggish bookings and High NA delays were holding the stock back. Those were the good old days.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@P_Remarks Historically these 2 lines converge back

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@evrgn11112231 Bonkers. Mizuho

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@DurableCreators These risks were there a few years ago. Agentic is new but why wouldn’t it run on their rails?

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@dalibali2 Its almost like ppl forgot last quarter’s results.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@SupBagholder @eric_seufert @jolivan I kinda disagree here. Ad optimization/conversion is discussed at lenght in calls. They can only go so deep while leaving time to hit on the other initiatives. Also, if stock was 1000$ would we be talking about his communication skills?

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@SouthernValue95 Seeing 17% growth in EPS for 26 using S&P Global’s estimate of operating earnings.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@evrgn11112231 @GavinSBaker Assuming you like or hold TDG, the software equivalent is CSU IMO

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@GHadjia Same argument can be made for Search and YT maturity IMO, plus you need to UW OAI risk. Mkt is assigning very high mult for GCP. So lots of upside if META can show path to improving and monetizing its new LLM.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@taobanker @evrgn11112231 @epochso @malinvested I’m trying to rationalize how GOOG will spend 240B$ in 2027 as Search matures, it will have to be in support of GCP which is spending into a market with two other LLMs dictating how much capex they *think* they’ll need in 3 years and getting AMZN/MSFT on board with that plan.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@dcurras1 I wouldn’t try to rationalize the selling other than investors don’t want to hold SW. Complexity was there when LMN was at 40x fwd.

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@CousinGraig @imnotharsh @PiyDW A bit strange their guide to only modest acceleration for Azure in H2 calendar 26 given their GPU mix of capex has gone up, no?

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@MattJMcClintock Been wrestling with this thought: Why isn’t a category killer taking more share/comping better than this even in a tough macro (vs say CVNA). Makes me think value prop not special enough?

[Aaron Lanni @lanaar2]

@ZachZinn3 @HedgeyeComm And they’re obviously reaping some reward from that 2024-25 capex or they wouldn’t be re-accelerating? They mentioned working on next gen recommenders in the call which is what I’m referring to.