りゅう

日本株と米国株と仮想通貨 $PLTR $NVDA $HOOD $IREN $SNDK

[HIKICHI＆Company @USurasara]

UBS証券レーティング

キオクシアホールディングス（285A）　
「BUY」継続　
目標株価79000円→132000円

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Micron signed a strategic agreement with Anthropic earlier this week which will see it become the AI firm’s primary memory and storage component supplier, with Micron also making a strategic investment in Anthropic’s Series H round.

$MU $NVDA $AMD

[TheStreet @TheStreet]

Micron just dethroned Nvidia in one key way

Read more: https://t.co/KJOY9MzGib

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Micron $MU hasn't recorded back to back red weeks since $450/share, ~60% below the current share price...

Having already gained +250% YTD but sitting at a mere ~7x forward P/E, the question on every trader's mind... is it too late to get in, or is this party just getting started?

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

$MU $DRAM $SNDK Bank of America just put out their 2030 semi TAM.

$1.96T total.
$900B is memory. Nearly half.

And this is almost certainly outdated. It's not pricing in the Agentic AI boom yet.

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

キオクシア、社員600人が「10億り人」　AIが生む富の新景色
https://t.co/IbzU72LQ9E

[T.Kamada @Kamada3]

米国のテクノロジー関連ファンドへの資金フローに極めて大きな変動が見られます。

今週、米国のテクノロジー・セクター・ファンドからは150億ドルの資金が流出しました。これは少なくとも過去2年半で最大の週間流出額です。

この流出額は、同期間におけるこれまでの最大流出額を100%上回る規模です。

なお、その前週には190億ドルの資金が流入しており、こちらも少なくとも過去2年半で最大の週間流入額を記録していました。

さらに、米国株式ファンドからも今週85億ドルの資金が流出しました。これは3ヶ月ぶりの大きな週間流出額であり、直前には過去最高となる1,190億ドルの流入があった後の動きです。

年初来、米国株式ファンドには3,320億ドルの資金が流入しており、これは先進国市場全体への流入額合計（6,610億ドル）の半分を占めています。

投資家は巨額の利益を確定させています。-- The Kobeissi Letter

[りゅう @laurier_fx]

@teriteritoushi 代金インフレ時代！
株はもう下がらない。

[장코드 @jsh3pump_]

JP모건 "한국 증시, 조정 때마다 사라"
강세 시나리오 목표치 15,000으로 상향

1. JP모건이 코스피 강세 시나리오 목표치를 15,000으로 대폭 상향하며, "주가가 빠질 때마다 매수해 한국 시장에 대한 최대 투자 비중을 유지하라" 고 권고함

2. 믹소 다스를 비롯한 JP모건 전략가들은 AI 산업에 대한 긍정적인 전망과 하드웨어 기업들의 실적 개선, 그리고 앞으로 더 이어질 여력이 있는 개인 투자자들의 매수세를 목표가 상향의 근거로 제시함

3. 특히 AI 데이터센터 구축에 참여하는 기술 기업들의 실적이 이제 거시경제 차원에서도 유의미한 수준까지 커졌으며, 이것이 기업∙가계∙정부 전반에 부를 늘려주는 '자산 효과'를 일으키고 있다고 분석함

4. 아울러 기본 및 약세 시나리오에 대한 코스피 목표치 역시 각각 12,500과 8,000으로 함께 상향 조정함

뭐라구요? 코스피 1만5천이요?😨

[老樹投資研究所 @FoWSS0aRjC8qzSx]

昨日、キオクシアが歴史的大暴落！
前日比－16,410円、終値92,290円。8連騰の怪物が一瞬で牙を剥き、ホルダーを焼き尽くした。
一方、ノンホルダーは9万円台復活に狂喜乱舞。「神のバーゲンセール到来！」
健全な押し目か、それとも天井からの地獄か——
今こそ命がけで買い向かう勇敢な戦士、求む！

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

アンソロピック「ミュトス5」、米が信頼できるパートナー利用許可 https://t.co/QXlOtp1l5z

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

CXMT will probably list at $500B (some are predicting $700B) on the Shanghai Star Market

Big Fund I, II, III have raised a total of $95B since 2014 and total Chinese state investment & subsidies are believed to be around $250B since 2014
Now, just 1 company going public will literally generate 2x-3x return on the total investment

Crazy

[Jukan @ICML @jukan05]

$DRAM ETF has added CXMT’s parent company.

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

AI株急落で露呈、ウォール街の投機エコシステム－熱狂が逆回転 https://t.co/hG0Bl0U1nA

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

$MU $SNDK $DRAM

Lenovo: memory prices are the "new normal" into 2030.

Apple: MacBook and iPad prices already raised.

Xbox: citing 2.5x memory cost surges. Another doubling by fall 2027.

All confirming the same thing. Memory prices are not coming down. Structural.

[Oh Come On! @BluthCapital]

$MU CEO, in effect:

"For > decade $AAPL has been buying our chips for $5, gluing it inside a metal box, & selling it to consumers for $99 upgrades & laughing at our attempts to get $7.
Now we're charging them $50 & they turned around & raised prices on their customers $250."

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm.

On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply.

He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others…

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says $AAPL is reportedly raising baseline iPhone DRAM from 8GB to 9GB in 2027 to keep Apple Intelligence running smoothly.

On-device AI is pushing DRAM content per phone higher which is bullish for $MU, Samsung and SK Hynix.

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this).

For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down.

Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle.

What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend.

DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away.

HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers.

Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances.

Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027.

Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year.

Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%.

There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides.

Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history.

Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided.

For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS.

At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher.

Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028.

The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it.

This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it.

Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.