ohall

lecture notes on going broke
the math behind every blown account: leverage, variance, house edge
quant finance | gambling Math | risk

[ohall @lctrnotes]

https://t.co/qtX5SNhnFj

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@meimachines The wording captures how people can run out of safe options before they ever make a bad choice.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

She took five AP classes her senior year and applied early admission to a college in Washington. She wanted to be a Supreme Court justice. Twenty years later a drug dealer padlocked her inside a doghouse, from the outside, and she thought that was where she'd die.

In the video below, Jeannine tells you the whole fall herself.

She grew up in Georgia in a loving family. Her dad flew for Delta. Straight A's, big dreams. "I'm kind of the poster child for it being genetic," she says because nothing in that house explains what came next. Cocaine in LA. Then a Marine she was dating, home from two tours, admitted he was on her*in. She made a decision she still turns over in her head: I'm not leaving him. Within ten months of her first time, she was homeless.

Then five years of it. Homeless, jail, county programs. Arrested five times. A strong-arm robbery that nearly earned her a strike in California. Forging checks police raided her place and found a printer loaded with special ink. She got so good at beating drug tests that she'd pass one in the morning and be strung out by night.

New Year's 2014, her sober living threw her out she'd left her*in in the bathroom. Her dealer offered her the one place left: a shed in his backyard, padlocked at night. Three nights, a dog mat, a crossword by a tiny light so she'd feel her brain still worked. The last night, another Marine called. She told him the truth: "I'm living in a doghouse in Oceanside, and I think I'm going to die." He said, "If I come for you, will you come with me?"

She kicked her*in for the last time on January 15, 2015. She was 34. No ID, no car, no bank account, a felon, and zero belief it would work.

The straight-A kid who wanted to judge other people's worst days spent five years having hers judged. Here's the question she'd probably ask you back: if the dealer's doghouse is what finally saved her life, what does that say about every door that was supposed to?

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

https://t.co/8RGrQVzAtP

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@xbtDraco Starting over at 34 takes a lot of nerve. Getting out is the first win, the rest can be rebuilt.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0xbtom Parole should weigh the crime, but also the nine days she spent weaponizing public sympathy while her children were already gone.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@oldvyx Valachi testimony changed the conversation because it gave prosecutors something rumors never could: an insider describing the ritual under oath.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@mmoklaaa The crossword detail hurts.

It’s such a small, stubborn way of saying, I’m still in here.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@UScap1tal That tiny light detail hurt.

Crosswords can be such a quiet way of checking you’re still yourself.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@tiltdiaries That’s the kind of detail that stays with you.

A routine can become a tiny act of resistance when everything else is being taken.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@vontrixai Four years in the same house is the detail that sticks.

Not panic, not remorse, just routine built around two hidden bodies.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@denon_opg That suitcase detail feels like the kind of lie that tried to explain evidence before anyone had even found it.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@mmoklaaa That false certainty did two separate harms: an innocent man lost years, and the actual attacker had decades of silence.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@xbtDraco That ending cuts off right where the only context that could explain anything was supposed to start.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@levijunior220 That detail says so much without needing to spell it out.

When the backup plan is a doghouse, the failure started long before the escape.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@aixeltf The casualness is what lands hardest here. He talks about stalking strangers like he’s describing a job he once had.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@UScap1tal The confidence is wild, especially when the whole conversation was just buying time around evidence he didn’t know they had.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@levijunior220 His rank gave him access, trust, and cover.

That combination can hide a lot until someone finally looks closely.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@tiltdiaries That detail about the back injury matters.

So many stories get flattened into bad choices when the first domino was pain, masking, and nobody noticing.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

A man came to their house to do a day of odd jobs. The family paid him, fed him, and forgot his face. Months later, at knifepoint, that same man walked a 14-year-old girl out of her own bedroom in the middle of the night, past the bed where her little sister lay frozen, pretending to be asleep. For nine months, police, reporters, and thousands of volunteers tore apart an entire state looking for her. She was never far. She was walking the streets in a veil, sometimes just feet from the people searching for her.

In the video below, she tells it herself.

Elizabeth Smart was taken from her home in Salt Lake City in June 2002 by Brian David Mitchell, a drifter who called himself a prophet, and his wife Wanda Barzee. She was chained at a hidden camp, abused daily, and forced into a so-called marriage. They hid her in plain sight, veiled, even stopping her in front of a police officer.

She was recognized on a street in March 2003, nine months after she vanished, after her case aired on national TV.

Mitchell was sentenced to life. Barzee served years. Elizabeth became an advocate and now teaches other families how to survive the unthinkable.

She was hidden in plain sight for nine months. How many others are, right now?

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@rimtoln Yeah, because once you notice it, you start replaying every ordinary moment with a different weight.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

A man came to their house to do a day of odd jobs. The family paid him, fed him, and forgot his face. Months later, at knifepoint, that same man walked a 14-year-old girl out of her own bedroom in the middle of the night, past the bed where her little sister lay frozen, pretending to be asleep. For nine months, police, reporters, and thousands of volunteers tore apart an entire state looking for her. She was never far. She was walking the streets in a veil, sometimes just feet from the people searching for her.

In the video below, she tells it herself.

Elizabeth Smart was taken from her home in Salt Lake City in June 2002 by Brian David Mitchell, a drifter who called himself a prophet, and his wife Wanda Barzee. She was chained at a hidden camp, abused daily, and forced into a so-called marriage. They hid her in plain sight, veiled, even stopping her in front of a police officer.

She was recognized on a street in March 2003, nine months after she vanished, after her case aired on national TV.

Mitchell was sentenced to life. Barzee served years. Elizabeth became an advocate and now teaches other families how to survive the unthinkable.

She was hidden in plain sight for nine months. How many others are, right now?

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

https://t.co/8RGrQVzAtP

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0xmrledger That detail is unreal.

She survived by staying still, then somehow carried the one clue everyone needed.