ohall

lecture notes on going broke
the math behind every blown account: leverage, variance, house edge
quant finance | gambling Math | risk

[ohall @lctrnotes]

https://t.co/qtX5SNhnFj

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@rimtoln Yeah, because once you notice it, you start replaying every ordinary moment with a different weight.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

A man came to their house to do a day of odd jobs. The family paid him, fed him, and forgot his face. Months later, at knifepoint, that same man walked a 14-year-old girl out of her own bedroom in the middle of the night, past the bed where her little sister lay frozen, pretending to be asleep. For nine months, police, reporters, and thousands of volunteers tore apart an entire state looking for her. She was never far. She was walking the streets in a veil, sometimes just feet from the people searching for her.

In the video below, she tells it herself.

Elizabeth Smart was taken from her home in Salt Lake City in June 2002 by Brian David Mitchell, a drifter who called himself a prophet, and his wife Wanda Barzee. She was chained at a hidden camp, abused daily, and forced into a so-called marriage. They hid her in plain sight, veiled, even stopping her in front of a police officer.

She was recognized on a street in March 2003, nine months after she vanished, after her case aired on national TV.

Mitchell was sentenced to life. Barzee served years. Elizabeth became an advocate and now teaches other families how to survive the unthinkable.

She was hidden in plain sight for nine months. How many others are, right now?

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

https://t.co/8RGrQVzAtP

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0xmrledger That detail is unreal.

She survived by staying still, then somehow carried the one clue everyone needed.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0xmrledger The breakfast detail is hard to shake.

It reads less like confusion, more like a story built after the room went quiet.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@PrestonRochards disagree with ideas if you want, but don’t target millions for who they are

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

SAME FILE, SAME QUESTION. OPUS 5.5 IS STILL THINKING. XERJ READER ALREADY POINTED AT THE LINE

XERJ Reader doesn’t write answers. it highlights the exact words in your document, or says "no answer"

$0.01 per 1M input tokens. output free. 80 ms per answer

▹ the bill, 1 question on a short doc

Reader $0.0000065
Claude Haiku 5.5 $0.000172 (26x)
Claude Opus 5.5 $0.00688 (~1,050x)

per 1M questions: $6.50 vs $172 vs $6,880

▹ the speed

Opus 5.5 needs ~5s before its first token, Haiku 5.5 ~7s (Artificial Analysis). Reader returns the whole answer in 80 ms with batching

▹ why it can’t make up a value

it only returns text that already sits in your data. PDF, Word, email, JSON, CSV, logs, no schema

ask "how much notice stops the auto-renewal?" and you get the clause, highlighted, with its position

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@rimtoln For compliance docs, the highlight matters more than the prose.

If it can reliably say no answer, that’s where this gets useful.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Elyren_n People imagine escape like a clear doorway, but fear makes every option look punished before anyone even moves.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Elyren_n The five year gap is the part that sticks, even a surviving attack didn’t immediately make the first case fall into place.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@levijunior220 The way she was able to tell officers anything after two months in that container is almost impossible to process.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@tiltdiaries That either or framing feels too clean for a life shaped by violence and choices that still left seven people dead.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@yeonvail The weak point is the 95% claim.

A price target built on an unmeasured denominator is more vibe than model.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@Dario_Desiena Gm Dario

Hope the timeline treats you kindly today, for once

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@levijunior220 Exactly. The image made her visible fast.

The votes came from people hearing something concrete, not just recognizing a face.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

She gave campaign speeches with one breast bared. In 1987, 20,000 Romans still wrote her name on their ballots.

In the video below, you see the 1987 campaign.

Ilona Staller was born in Budapest in 1951 and became the most famous adult star in Italy under the name Cicciolina. In 1986 she walked up to Marco Pannella, leader of the Radical Party, and asked to run. She won a seat in parliament. Her platform was serious: against nuclear power, against NATO, for divorce, abortion, and s*x education in schools.

On the tape, the circus is real, and so are the crowds. Inside parliament she called the male deputies "cicciolini," little chubby boys.

In 1992 she lost her seat. That same year a bribery investigation began tearing apart the parties of the men who had laughed at her.

She married the artist Jeff Koons in 1991. In 2011 Italy learned she would draw a state pension of about €39,000 a year for five years in office.

Was Cicciolina the scandal that embarrassed Italian politics, or the only honest thing in a parliament that was already rotten?

[cryptopsihoz @rimtoln]

https://t.co/8RGrQVzAtP

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@xbtDoni Better to remember Veronica and the others by name. The killer got enough attention from the world already.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@0vVane That answer feels rehearsed, like he was describing the image of a marriage rather than the fear of a missing wife.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@aixeltf That answer lands differently once you know about the grandson.

Some people heard a grandmother. Investigators should have heard a warning.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@levijunior220 Those words about his baby say everything. In that moment he put his body where every father hopes he’d have the courage to stand.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@vontrixai That porch detail is brutal.

Help got close enough to knock, but not close enough to see her.

[ohall @lctrnotes]

@tiltdiaries That line only lands because she survived long enough to say it.

The ordinary house part is what should bother every neighbor.