Learn. Invest. Grow

Learning personal finance and micro-blogging it

I tweet on interesting reads, BSE updates,videos etc.
Converting info to knowledge

Tweets are personal views.

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

Key takeaways from @unifi2maran webinar from @kotakneo :

Classification of mcap :
Large cap --> Top 1-100 companies hv Mcap 11L to 27k cr

Midcap -->101-250 companies hv Mcap 27k to 7k cr

Small cap --> 251-500 companies hv Mcap 7k to 2k cr

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@FI_InvestIndia @police_haryana Isn't the scooter driver at fault as well here ? Why is he moving towards the overtaking lane when left side is so much free

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@kushalkasliwall @Investor_Mohit @UditSharma_IH @ash_lodha @Rishikesh_ADX Lovely report ! Got my weekend sorted !

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@ishmohit1 Any stockscans sector rotation tool for USA too ?

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@investofino Great chart , what all indicators are you using on Tradingview ?

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@Invesquotes I think you are missing $QCOM in this map

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@KawzInvests What about $NOK with their Infinera acquisitions

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@CKCapitalxx $QCOM It's the dark horse in semis

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@ishmohit1 Which Book ?

[Shreenidhi P @nid_rockz]

When taxation is the only thing govt cares for

Results are self explanatory

India vs global mkts for last 2 years

Looks like so called "Shock Absorbers" need a special shock treatment

Japan,Korea, Taiwan are up between 100-200% over the last 1 year

Nasdaq up 38%
Dow up 26%

DAX almost nearing life highs

All we do is:
Keep taxing middle class every year and burden them
Increasing taxation on equity markets and make sure FIis run out of India
Give freebies to the ones who don't want to work
Periodically, do farm loan waivers for the ones who never pay tax
On top of it, govt is doing OFS in such kind of mkt 🙏🙏

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@SamirKhazaka I think the market works on future narrative.
Also , please provide your insights on other stocks as well rather than just writing about QCOM whether they will live up to the expectation. Their PE was so low that market believes any incremental revenue from DC will be great addon

[GoldForest Investments @Goldforestinves]

📊 The Full Data Center Ecosystem in India – All Key Players & Segments

🏢 Physical Infra & Real Estate
Adani Ports (AdaniConneX JV), DLF, Hiranandani (Yotta JV), NBCC, L&T, Lodha, Embassy, Anant Raj

⚡ Power, Electrification & Automation
NTPC, Tata Power, Blue Star, Voltas, KEI, Polycab, Hitachi Energy India (ABB), Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, CG Power, TD Power, Marine Electricals, Apar Industries

❄️ Cooling & HVAC
Blue Star, KRN Heat Exchanger, Voltas, Hitachi

🌐 Network & Connectivity
Bilvor, RailTel, Bharti Airtel (Nxtra DC), Tata Communications, Yotta (unlisted), Reliance Jio (unlisted DC arm), ADC India, Sterlite Tech

🖥️ Servers, GPU & IT Hardware
Netweb Technology, Dixon Tech, HCL Tech, Wipro, TCS, Apar Industries

☁️ Cloud & Managed Services
AWS, GCP, Azure, E2E Networks, Airtel Cloud, Anant Raj, BlackBox, Aurion Pro, Sify Tech, Tata Communications

🔋 Battery Backup & Generators
TD Power, Amaraja

🔌 Optical Fiber & Infrastructure Providers
Sterlite Tech, ADC India, Orient Tech, Allied Digital

🏦 End Users / Demand Drivers
AI workloads, BFSI, OTT streaming, Govt

🚀 Key Revenue Opportunity: US$8B

This is the complete ecosystem driving India’s data revolution! 💡🌐📈

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@Bunnyk199 @AimInvestments @grok KRN Heat exchanger

[Arpit @ag_arpit1]

“You Were Not Born Just to Earn, Marry, and Die – The Shocking Truth of Life Sanatan Dharma Tried to Teach Us (But We Forgot)”

#longthread

They made us believe life is about success, fame, and happiness. But our ancestors left behind a deeper, powerful path – from Karma to Dharma to Moksha. We just stopped looking…

From karma to moksha – 15 ancient truths that reveal what life was really meant for… 👇

[Sahil Sharma @sahil_vi]

Tariffs are not the end game. We are entering a long drawn trade war which is meant to re-engineer the global economic order
I have spent the last 3 months doing nothing but studying what is happening around us. I finally am starting to understand what is happening & why is it happening the way that it is.
1# First some light maths

Trade account: balance of exports & imports.

Trade deficit = Imports > Exports.
Trade surplus = Exports > Imports.
America is Trade Deficit
China is Trade surplus
Capital account = balance of capital investments (into factories, FII, FDI, FPI etc).
Capital Deficit = I am exporting capital account investments into other nations, investing in them
Capital Surplus = I am importing capital account investments from other nations, they are investing in me.
For any country, its trade/current and capital accounts have to balance.

So for any country

BoP (balance of payment) identity
Capital Account + Trade Account = 0

This is true for any country & any reserve currency.

Look at in another way, whatever $ China earns by exporting good & services need to be recycled into American investments which typically ends up being US treasuries & US equity stocks.
Relationship bw Savings, Investment & trade balance.
Savings−Investment=Trade Balance

Savings = GDP - PrivateConsumption - GovernmentSpending

Investment (I) is spending on capital goods such as factories, machinery, and equipment.

So this means that a country with high Trade surplus keeps savings higher than investments which means it keeps both private & Govt consumption low.

#2 Some important History
The current economic order was engineered at Bretton Woods agreement.

1. It made dollar the reserve currency of the world. Meaning everyone saves in dollars, typically US treasuries.

2. It established America as the consumer of last resort & thus the savings destination of last resort. They are one & the same thing since the BoP
3. As a consequence, if the world at large is net trade surplus , by identity, America has to be large trade deficit & also capital account surplus. This means that this means they inevitably need to keep fiscal deficit high & run large debt & deficit since they are where the world saves their monies.
4. How does CHina or Japan Or Germany run a large trade surplus? They do this by ensuring that their savings are high. How do they do this? By financial repression of labor (lower wages compared to their productivity). By financial repression of savers by keeping rates low. When interest rates are low it favors producers like manufacturing companies over savers since the savers make less money.

America expected that when China, Japan earned trade dollars, those would be recycled into american exports. And so china would not maintain large persistent surpluses.

We know this because in 1985 when they saw $ strengthen 2x in 5 years & american exports became uncompetitive, they Engineered the Plaza accords primarily with Japan, Europe, South Korea which led to an orderly depreciation of $ by 2x & made American exports net competitive though in 6 years not immediately. This was like a walk in park compared to what they need to engineer now. Why? Because these were all allies inside the American security umbrella. Just the threat of tarriffs by Uncle Sam was enough to bring everyone to the table & hash out an orderly $ depreciation.

As you can imagine, this worked well for a few years. But you know $ depreciation is like a 1 time trick. The imbalance is cased by differential savings trade.

For any country:

Savings - Investment = Trade balance

Since dharti is a closed trading system this means summed over all countries.

Savings_china - Investment_china + Savings_india - Investment_india + … + Savings_usa - Investments_usa = 0

This means that any domestic policies which impact consumption, savings, investment all affect other nations of dharti.

Since the underlying causal factors which is high savings rate in Japan, germany (caused by repression of investors & labor) was not addressed & since nations can make other reciprocal policies which might not seem like trade policies but are in fact trade policies, so america ended up being a trade deficit nation again in a few short years. This has been continuing in the same way until 2024 when Trump decided to reset the Global economic order.

Why is Trump doing this & why now?

Many people try to paint him as a madman. He isnt. If you just see his economic & executive cabinet/team this is clear. Scott bessant. Howard lutnik. Elon Musk. Stephen Miran. These are not madmen. Trump is doing this due to a few reasons:

1. It became clear in last several decades that America is able to start wars but not finish them. Free trade has effectively hollowed out the american military industrial complex. This is why trade has become a national security issue. Despite throwing kitchen sink at the problem Russia has convincingly outlasted outproduced & outsmarted American war machine in Ukraine. Similar outcomes in Iraq, Afghanistan & other wars have now convinced the national security establishment that they need to produce in America. But the thing about production is that you cannot just produce a few things in isolation. THis is why the emphasis on Autos. Auto producers are the ones who produce ships (notice how often JD vance references Ship building in his speeches), tanks , missiles & arms & ammunition. America understands that as things stand today it would lose in a kinetic war with China so it has a very short window of 2-5 years to rearm itself if it is to stand a chance in a future kinetic war with China (if war with china seems like a distant possibility check out Andreesen horowitz website They are a VC firm who is acting with white house to bring military production back to america).

2. decades of neoliberal consensus on shifting production to China. Hence, America runs consistent trade deficits. These need to be financed by Fiscal deficits financed by US treasuries which is debt. THis has created this massive debt bubble in America. The official debt they have already taken is close to 37T$ but if you include non funded liabilities which are to come in the future (social security promises they have made which they would fund in the future) then the debt is closer to 160-180T$. This is an insane amount of debt!! Never before has america run a debt of 120% of GDP in a non war environment.

3. Never before in history of all empires has an empire turned from "late-stage empire" indicator or imperial overstretch which is when its interest expenses for debt are greater than defence spending. Last year America’s interest expense was ~900 billion$ and is crossing 1T$ & possibly 1.4T$ despite their every action. This is why scott bessant (USA finance minister/treasury secretary) says his only focus is the 10Y Treasury yield. He dismissed the wall street sell-off as “This is a Mag7 problem not a MAGA problem”. This is why DOGE. This is why now.

What is Trump doing?

Tariffs are not the end game. We are entering a long drawn trade war which is meant to re-engineer the global economic order.
Tariffs are the headline catcher, they are the act before the act. They are the misdirection of a magician as he performs his trick.

1. Tariffs actually hurt their objectives since it strengthens $ & also pushes partly burden on american consumers. Tariffs also unfairly penalize even net trade deficit countries like india. Or countries which whom USA runs trade surplus like UK.

2. Tariffs are a negotiation tactic. A way to bring china & everyone else on the table. Negotiation can only be conducted if the other person wants it more badly than you do. This is the thinking. Make them bleed before you implement the actual actions.

3. The real game is capital controls. This is clearly outlined in writings of @michaelxpettis @michaeljmcnair @SteveMiran. America needs to stop the world from buying american financial instruments. In order of priority they want the world to do the following :

1. Save less. Dont run trade surpluses. Specially with America. Michael pettis’s “can trade interventions lead to freer trade” is a must read: https://t.co/bCpqWGIshm
2. If you must save. Dont save in $. When you save in $ then it forces america to create fiscal deficit & debt to accommodate that net global savings. So america is willingly encouraging the world to dedollarize by which we mean save in other neutral reserve assets like Gold, Silver.
3. In fact the sovereign wealth fund is another way of achieving same objective. America buys up assets in the rest of the world. This reverse or inverts the capital flows & forces the trade account flows to reverse by weakening the $ strengthening the other currencies.
4. If the world must save in $ then america wants them to invest in their factories & create real jobs for americans. The class imbalance in america is unbelievable. The top 1% can buy 99% of all homes in america if they wanted to. The top 10% consume 50% of all consumption in America. Two thirds of america couldnt come up with 2000$ in a crisis if they had one. The average life expectancy of a non college grad in America is 7 years, seven whole years less than college grads. This is due to the hollowing out of american industrial might over the last few years. Few economists assume that being developed automatically means less manufacturing. This is not so. Look at Germany or Japan as an example.
5. What is the end game? It is a mar-a-lago accord which would be another global economic system reordering event. I expect following features in this system:

1. Countries are prevented from running persistent large trade surpluses with penalties for doing so.
2. Dollar depreciation vs other currencies to make american manufacturing more competitive
3. Reversal of tariffs.
4. Potentially, some backing of the new $ system with gold, silver, other commodities.
5. I also expect america to be quite happy with stagflation since this sort of financial repression was common post WW2 in 1940s & helped them inflate away their debt from 120% to 50% of GDP. This means they want to let inflation run higher for longer which is a repression of bond holders by making real interest rates negative. This might be coupled with some form of capital controls seen post WW2.

What is going to happen now?

I think of this as a game theoretic setup. The world case scenario for china is mar-a-lago accord since it results in Japanification of china. Which is what plaza accord caused to Japan.
1. Japan depended on Exports. America depreciated $ to make exports competitive. This hurt japanese economy & exports so japan started cutting interest rates. This led to a massive asset bubble (stock markets, real estate everything). At the peak of the bubble (around 1989), the grounds of Tokyo's Imperial Palace—covering about 1.15 square kilometers (approx. 280 acres)—were famously reported to be valued at more than all of the real estate in the entire state of California

2. China is hyper aware about this & really really doesnt want to turn into a japan. I expect china to respond not only with tariffs which wont hurt america a lot but in every n-th order consequence ways it can. Open source software to break the monopoly of US tech. Deep seek. Qwen. Alibaba models. More such open source models to compete away the profit pools of MAG7

3. China will weaponize the supply chain. Rare earth minerals. Semiconductor (i expect china to take Taiwan in next 2-3 years). Anything & everything else that it can, will be weaponized.
4. China may attempt to establish manufacturing bases in strategic locations to ensure american goods cant compete there. Eg: Chinese BYD, CATL factories in Hungary to open up Europe markets to them
5. People expect the tariffs to be good for Bharat since we are towards end of the tariff range at 26%. Nothing could be further than the truth. There are two big problems. No supply chains have the elasticity to absorb 26% price increases. countries will enter into a competitive devaluation of Currencies. Central bank of tariffed nations will cut interest rates. But every element of supply chain, Every manufacturer, exporter, importer, retailer, distributor & customer will need to shrink their savings rate. The tarrifs should also be seen as a way to shrink the savings of surplus countries. The tariff rates confirm this. Countries with the largest trade surplus have highest tariff rates. This shows us what its about. It is about reversing capital flows & balancing trade. The only problem is that tarrifs hurt american businesses & consumers as well. For this reason they are only a temporary negotiation tactic for bringing everyone on the table.
6. The world is demand deficient ex America. Since America is walling itself off, this means that the world needs to absorb all the excess capacities which were sold into China. this means that 2nd order 3rd order consequences will be china dumping into india what it had planned to export to America & so forth. So all industries will suffer. If you own a manufacturer who is domestic focussed then even he will suffer if chinese used to export it to usa but now export it to india just to keep capacity utilization high.
7. Japan & china do not allow foreigners to buy their treasuries. Similarly bharat also has highest taxation on FII ownership. Why?? Because capital flows cause trade flows. If we allowed a large amount of capital $ flows into bharat, this further appreciate rupee & make our exports uncompetitive. When America tries to use Sovereign wealth fund to try & balance the capital account & other nations try to block these attempts, then it will provide even more legitimacy to america to place multiple capital controls in place. @michaelmcnair ‘s article on this subject is a must read. https://t.co/GM3RObfTyV
8. I expect Gold to do really well for next 3-5 years. After all gold is real money. Everything else is a promise of money. AMerican $ is worth less if america cannot produce enough goods for you to buy and/or if america prints too many $ to devalue the $ that you hold. And you know that they need to print at least 160 trillion $ in next many decades at least (this number grows every year). Some people believe bitcoin will do well. I dont know. It has to register itself as sound money in order to be 'digital gold' as of now it is more like a 'nasdaq clone'. I am also not 100% sure that push comes to shove can American security establishement get a back door entry into bitcoin? Id rather own gold. The money of last 5,000 years. Individual companies will continue to do well if entrepreneur is hungry & hard working. Defence as a theme should do best in bharat since europe is arming itself. they need the weapons. Can we produce & supply them?
9. Many people believe bottom might be in place for many individual stocks. This is just a fallacy of short term horizon thinking. Consider an EPC company which is at single digit multiple & i expect 100% EPS growth. It is clearly undervalued. But its order might be in Middle east. That project could be funded by chinese govt. Their trade surplus goes down, funding dries up, order never materializes or worse, project stops in the middle. It is impossible to predict how things will turn out but companies which are domestic focussed will do better than others.
10. I expect out GDP growth to go down from 6.5-7% to 5.5-6% if the trade war plays out with high intensity. This will impact domestic facing companies as well. if we previously assumed that they will grow at 50% now they might grow at 30%.
11. Right now pharma & semiconductor are excluded from Tariffs. Why? In fact if you read Stephen miran's paper it will become clear that pharma & semicon are most strategically important. They are excluded because they dont have the domestic capacity to produce these right now. But these are most important for America to produce domestically. I expect Pharma & semicon tarrifs to come into place in next 12-24 months whenever they feel they have critical mass of production capacities. Reason for not tarrifing now is that it is also politically sensitive given the widespread applications. The terminal value of these companies is impacted even today, market wont wait for actual tariffs to be announced when the direction is clear.

Predicting the end game here is equivalent to to visualize the outcome of a multi variate multi player game outcome which is as complex as world itself. Maybe the rishi of ancient Bharat could have done it. I cannot. I just know that we are in a regime where we need to very carefully watch actions of all nations & be prepared for a very difficult next 3-5 years.

I owe a massive intellectual debt to many great thinkers who have openly shared their working & reasoning which have allowed me to clearly see the world for what it is. In no particular order, if one wants to understand what is coming better, please follow & read everything written by & all videos of :

1. @michaelxpettis who i call the bheeshma pitama of the upcoming economic reset. He has been writing about it for last decade or more. His book "The great rebalance" is a must read.
2. @SteveMiran whos paper on restructuring trade systems outlines these many capital control policy actions america can undertake including taxing YST interest, swaping existing bonds with 0 interest century bonds
3. @michaeljmcnair whos articles like the sovreign wealth fund helped me connect the dots profoundly between capital & trade flows
4. @LukeGromen who's videos got me started thinking about what is Trump doing & why
5. @ankitatIIMA guruji who's videos got me started thinking about what is happening in the world & what is our place in it
6. @sanjeevsanyal sir who is follow very closely to understand how bharat is navigating these waters
7. @neelkanthmishra sir who i listen to every single week to understand how the world is shaping up & what is bharat's role in it

Non exhaustive set of Sources:
1. https://t.co/ZCKp4gnrpR
2. https://t.co/yESeIA6bbx
3. https://t.co/bCpqWGIshm
4. https://t.co/rlV76Md9jx
5. https://t.co/41jZ0jv5j7
6. https://t.co/geOXjqojiW
7. https://t.co/VwVtTrcqrk
8. https://t.co/zsJlnvPh7g
9. https://t.co/iOPnc7iA11
10. https://t.co/Ht21rb3hF2

[Niraj Shah @niraj_shah]

Madhusudan Kela ( @MadhusudanKela ) spoke to us a little earlier. Strong insights - here's a few excerpts

Key thought - Focus on preservation of capital. Dont credit yourself with the gains of last few years. Everyone has made money. Do your homework. Keep list of stocks ready to take advantage of market volatility.
(1/N)

[Dr Vismaya VR ✨Enigma✨ @Vismaya9999]

https://t.co/VC8mMKUahW

[Nigel D'Souza @Nigel__DSouza]

Nuvama Alternate Research on Godrej Properties

Today, December 09, 2024, MSCI indices will adjust the float and shares in the last 30 minutes of trade.

Passive in-flows in GPL is expected to be approximately USD 60 million, translating to 1.9 million shares, with an estimated impact of around 2 trading days

@PagariaAbhilash @CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live

#StockMarket

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

@finallynitin Yes , would be great if free on trading view

[Learn. Invest. Grow @learninvesgrow]

Could Sagence AI’s Analog Inferencing for GenAI be NVIDIA’s Downfall? https://t.co/By9MkS9Mxm

[BhikuMhatre @MumbaichaDon]

What an excellent explanation on Hinduism 👍🫡

Please listen - share if you like.