The Observer

Learn to observe.

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Transitioning this whole account. The good work was done.

This account will strive to tweet and share valuable information.

I strive to speak truth and will always be watching injustice.

- Matt Shea Parody

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

@WomenBeingAwful Guys so that means in her head her husbansa suicide was:

“Oh my gaaawwwwd he did it to get back at meeeeeeee”

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Analysis too much on Iran’s side

[Sami Hamdi سامي الهاشمي الحامدي @SALHACHIMI]

As long as Iran squeezes the Hormuz Strait, they can ramp up oil prices, which increases the price of gas at the pump for Americans, which frustrates ordinary Americans who could punish Trump in the midterms, meaning Trump loses the Houses and becomes a lame duck President.

Trump wants to negotiate without the pressure Iran is putting on the US economy. Therefore, he has been trying to carve out an alternative route in the Hormuz closer to Oman. Iran sent drones to hit the ships that attempted to cross, embarrassing the US and warning ships that US cannot protect them.

An embarrassed US lashed out, hitting Iran, trying to raise the stakes and the price of Iran controlling the Hormuz. Iran stubbornly responded by escalating further continuing to hit other ships attempting to cross, and demanding all ships liaise with Tehran and discuss "navigation fees".

Trump knows full well that Iran's squeeze could ruin his political future, and that if Iran continues to control the Hormuz, then his only option to de-escalate would be to cede terms in a deal that the world would call a "historic defeat" and "American surrender".

With little room to manoeuvre as his approval ratings continue to drop at home, Trump is escalating in frustration, ramping up attacks on Iran, demanding they loosen their grip on the Hormuz so that ships can pass, oil prices can drop, allowing him to negotiate with breathing space without the economic pressure that he believes is driving midterm discontent.

Iran, refusing to yield, is ramping up their response even further, hitting US allies (including Oman), and declaring that no one is safe as long as US continues their attack. Iran is trying to raise the cost for the entire region, pressuring neighbouring states to lobby Trump to back off.

Trump, refusing to back down, is ramping up his attacks even further, declaring that Iran did not respect the MOU, trying to rally the region into a military attack on Iran's sensitive sites, hoping to push Iran to a point where their survival depends on lifting their chokehold on the Hormuz.

Gulf states are on red alert, scrambling to decide whether to join the US in weakening Iran to prevent an imbalanced deal that might change the power dynamics of the region, or stay out of the war and risk the ire of a furious Washington which demands logistical support for their attacks on Iran. Sanaa Airport has been hit; Houthis have blamed Saudi and fired missiles. Perhaps the hit was a warning to the Houthis not to get involved, and the Houthis are firing as a warning to the Saudis not to get involved.

The most dangerous dynamic in all this is that both parties have not reached the maximum in terms of their abilities to escalate. Iran has the ability to mobilise the Houthis to shut the Bab al-Mandab Strait, causing potentially catastrophic damage to regional economies and the global economy. The US has the ability to bully regional powers into a wider confrontation with Iran, opening multiple regional fronts that will not be easily closed after.

Both parties want the other to blink. The problem is the fire may be too great and out of control by the time they do.

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

@WomenBeingAwful Guys so that means in her head her husbansa suicide was:

“Oh my gaaawwwwd he did it to get back at meeeeeeee”

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

https://t.co/g4XFtu2T2K

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Good Riddance

[US Homeland Security News @defense_civil25]

🚨Update: DEAD!! IRGC Supreme Commanding General Ahmad Wahidi, who took command after several of his fellow Generals were killed at the start of the War, was killed in a US air-strikes in Tehran tonight!!

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Fund the Muslims in Yemen

They’ll take out this Houthi garbage easy

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Houthi leader says the group will target Saudi Arabia's 'vital infrastructure'

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/FiuOD3hEig

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Good.

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

JUST IN: 🇦🇪🇮🇷 Dubai plans new port to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, per FT

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Houthis need a proper beating.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

NOW 🔴

Houthi linked media claims a missile strike targeted Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia.

Still needs verification.

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

May Allah destroy the Houthis

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Reports of Yemeni Missile launches towards Saudi Arabia

#MacroEdge

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The UAE is planning to build a new port and container terminal on the country's east cost to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, per FT.

Details include:

1. Dubai's DP World is in talks to develop a new multipurpose port in the coastal area of Fujairah

2. The new project would allow containers to enter and leave the country without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

3. Shipments would then be moved on trucks overland to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and neighboring Gulf countries

The Iran War continues to reshape global trade.

[Insider Wire @InsiderWire]

#BREAKING: U.S. strikes pummel the Iranian regime, direct hits on enemy military sites across more than 23 locations nationwide and counting.

[Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi]

EXCLUSIVE: Our investigation into Israel's secret operation to cultivate Ahmadinejad and turn him into an asset. His trips to Budapest were a front to meet Israelis, including Mossad chief David Barnea. Gift link w/ @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes @ronenbergman

https://t.co/0lcWXPfB9F

[Biff #SARSisAirborne 🍉 @Biff234523]

FYI, the /r/ContagionCuriosity subreddit now has a megathresd up on the ongoing cyclosporiasis outbreak, probably the best place to follow along. Which I would recommend doing, along with the basic precaution of avoiding raw produce that is frequently implicated (bagged salad, cilantro, basil, raspberries, and blackberries), at least until a source is identified.

https://t.co/JU7GbG8S1c

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Make Iran pay

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has now launched missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE in the past minutes. This is the largest Iranian attack in months.

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

I’m in love with this sentence:

“One of the most underrated skills you can learn is the ability to ignore your mood and stick with the plan.”

[The Observer @learntoobserve]

Oh how the days change

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

JUST IN - Syria, Iraq and US plan to unveil Mediterranean pipeline deal to bypass Strait of Hormuz — Middle East Eye

[Farid @Farid_0v]

@_Isabel_C You do realize that the book you are quoting is al-Kamil [fil Dhu'afa], right? Translation: The Complete Collection of Weak Narrators.

The narrator, Amer bin Saleh, is accused of ripping off hadiths from people, and this specific report is used to accuse him of unreliability.

[NIK @ns123abc]

BRO LITERALLY PREDICTED THIS