I keep seeing various share counts for SpaceX (~13.08B sh), which at the $135/sh IPO price yields something like $1.77T mkt cap.
Somebody tell @elonmusk or the CFO to issue a couple more shares and make it a round $1.776T mkt cap for the US bicentennial... 🚀🇺🇸💵
There’s one metric I watch to predict what will happen in venture markets
It’s not dollars deployed.
It’s not average valuation.
It’s the NUMBER and YoY GROWTH RATE of startups funded in a given year
Case in point…from ‘95-‘99, number of startups funded nearly 3x’d
We know how that ended…
Great numbers of startups create an unsustainable dispersion of talent and growth capital that bottlenecks companies getting to large outcomes
So where are we today? Round count is actually DOWN from ‘24-25. Below even 2019 levels.
Makes you think…🤔
Earlier this month we wrapped up NextView's 3rd annual Founder Retreat in Sonoma County's Russian River Valley 🌲⛺️🛶
Same format as always. Same goal as always.
Founders getting real and connecting with each other.
Every year, I share this video of French caretakers who take sand from Omaha Beach in Normandy, and scrub them into the letters to give them the gold coloring.
They do this for all 9,386 US soldiers who died.
France also gave us this land as American soil. #MemorialDayWeekend
This is very good.
The individual points may be reasonably well understood by those who have been building or investing in hard tech for awhile. But taken as a whole, it is particularly thoughtful (as usual for Leo).
Deep tech startups aren't just harder versions of software startups. After 10 years investing in sw & 5 in deep tech, I wrote a post about their key differences.
Core theme: what makes deep tech harder upfront also makes the winners much harder to copy.
https://t.co/XeDUOVAe5Y
NVIDIA just reported >$82B in revenue for Q1 2026.
To put that in historical context for other megacap tech, it's only within the last 10-15yrs that companies first exceeded that on a *full year* basis.
Microsoft (2014 - $87B)
Alphabet (2016 - $90B)
Apple (2011 - $108B)
Anthropic exp $10.9B Q2 revenue, up from $4.8B in Q1, and $559M of operating profit for the Q.
Compute is 56 cents per dollar of revenue, lower than I expected.
Q2 projection:
$10.9B revenue
-$6.1B compute
-$2.7B sales & marketing
-$1.5B other costs
=$559M operating income
Congrats to NextView Partner @stephpalmeri, named to @BusinessInsider's Seed 40 — a list recognizing "the women whose early bets have helped shape the startup ecosystem."
"Lists like this are fun, but the real story is always the founders." - @stephpalmeri
More below 👇
This IPO illustrates the power of an individual partner over the brand name firm in VC. Pierre Lamond was a partner of both Sequoia and Khosla. But instead of those firms backing Cerebras, it was Eclipse (the firm he joined at the age of 84) that backed this little known chip company, multiple times, in the early years. What a way to wrap up a career (he was born in 1930, same year as Buffett).
Happy Cinco de LinkedIn!
23 years ago today (5/5/03) we launched the LinkedIn website publicly. We hit 500K users and took this team photo <12mo later.