Lucky husband of @ntduke and father of two amazing girls. Cofounder of NextView. Built some product at Ebay and learned some investing at Spark Capital
But the takeaway is not that you should always say yes.
Don't forget that the cost of being right once is the many times you used the same mental model and ended up being wrong. If the wins always made up for those losses, VC's would perform much better overall.
The biggest mistake of any decent VC's career is usually a sin of omission, not a sin of commission.
In other words, it's always the investment you did not make or the follow-on you failed to invest enough into.
It's almost never the investment that didn't work out.
Introducing SKY-001, the first Engineering World Model.
On CAD and BIM tasks, it beats GPT-6 Astra and every frontier model we tested:
-> 51-125x faster
- > 150-210x cheaper
-> Higher IOU than all frontier models
SKY-001 lets you dream a physical object before you build it.
18 months of work. Built by the team out of Maluuba's deep learning lab (acq. by @MSRResearch).
The first ‘AI General Engineer’ will be the backbone for Autonomous Manufacturing.
Most VCs are aiming at a bullseye on a target they can barely see.
Last year the venture industry did about 15,000 deals. A typical early-stage firm backed twelve of them. The one that cost it most is the one it never saw.
Congrats to the team at @Ultraroboticsco on their series A from terrific investors! We've been investing in physical AI for several years now, and it's a joy to be working with this team for the second time.
Robotics has a distribution problem. Today, Ultra is announcing $62M in funding to solve it, including a $50M Series A led by @hiFramework.
We believe that deployment is the bottleneck in robotics.
It’s relatively easy to make a robot look impressive in a controlled environment. It’s much harder to put a robot into the open world, make it useful, keep it running, earn the trust of the people working alongside it, and do that over and over and over again.
So that’s what we’re focusing on.
There are basically three approaches to venture. And one is dominating the attention, headlines, and capital.
1. Fighting for diamonds in the middle of the fairway
2. Searching for diamonds in the rough
3. Mining for silver
It's been about a year since I wrote my post about the Existential Crisis for Seed VC's.
Some updated thoughts here on the three paths forward for seed investors.
https://t.co/5kDf2Scmu5
I directionally agree with. I think if you have 10%+ of your fund in a company, it's probably not an option.
Also, if you never write a follow-on check and never do an SPV, then it's not really an option because you never exercise it.
@credistick I think everyone has conviction about the founder and market at the beginning of the investment, and they lose that conviction if things go sideways long enough
@andrewparker This sort of thing makes me think that the GMV numbers are wildly exaggerated. There is a lot of friction in actually transacting, and I've found that 80% of the time, I feels like it wasn't worth the trouble. This will definitely change though.
There are basically three approaches to venture. And one is dominating the attention, headlines, and capital.
1. Fighting for diamonds in the middle of the fairway
2. Searching for diamonds in the rough
3. Mining for silver
One misconception of this is that lower price does not = diamond in the rough. The market is actually quite efficient. A diamond in the rough can still be priced at $60M pre, if it would have otherwise been priced at $120M pre with a more consensus fact pattern.
There are basically three approaches to venture. And one is dominating the attention, headlines, and capital.
1. Fighting for diamonds in the middle of the fairway
2. Searching for diamonds in the rough
3. Mining for silver