Leni Mayo

Co-founder Small-time angel investor. Software Engineer.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@chrisbrycki Hi Chris - screenshot?

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

The lock-in effect

It may be that the most economically consequential outcome of the proposed tax rises will not be:
- discouraging founders; or
- founder flight
but something called "the lock-in effect".

The literature on it is consistent across almost 50 years of study.

The basic idea is that raising taxes at exit makes owners less likely to sell.

From there, it's straightforward to predict:
- reduced transaction volumes
- reduced liquidity; and
- a whole set of inefficiencies re: owners that should have sold years ago but were averse to losing half.

Having the highest CGT rate in the world will no doubt put Australia in a position to contribute to the literature on the topic 😊

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@shandsaker Pretty good swerve given how late he saw the dog!

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@buirachel @shandsaker @andrewbirt @SmallTimeVC @LaunchVic One thing not measured by the Startup Genome Report is serendipity.

Brownian motion of people and ideas and...hey presto, a company!

I doubt that the longest lockdown in the world will prove friendly to serendipity. Quite the reverse.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@GuyCoops @lukie And Richmond!

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

> There was another factor that had roughly triple the predictive power of brainpower.

https://t.co/XT6fDmuhzl

[richard shotton @rshotton]

Tetlock’s study into forecasting accuracy found that the most important skill was a willingness to update ones beliefs when new information arrived

In Think Again

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

Signal is blowing up.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@petecameron steps down as chair of @StartupVic leaving every aspect of the org >2x better than he found it: management, finances, board. Thanks Pete.

Congrats to incoming co-chairs @RachelYang_ and @morganranieri!

[Scott Handsaker @shandsaker]

Congrats to @petecameron for his tenure as chair of @StartupVic . Passing the baton after doing more than almost anyone to make the organization relevant, viable and impactful. Victoria thanks you. 👏

[Mary Curnock Cook @MaryCurnockCook]

Such a great email sent by a Dyson Institute Undergraduate Engineer to James Dyson after his announcement of new Degree Awarding Powers @Dyson

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@daveslutzkin Carn The Tiges!

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

Terrific essay on what makes TikTok special by @eugenewei

https://t.co/TMlEyqUL8E

[Ofir Reich @OfirReich]

What determines the success of #COVID19 #TestAndTrace?

Our SEIR on a graph says:
(i) Symptom Onset to Test Time (& to self-isolation)
(ii) Share of Contacts Traced

Less important:
(iii) Test & Trace Time: test turnaround & contact tracing time.

https://t.co/LoiC5hFPxe
1/

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

Holograms?

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Hypothesis: One limit on the switch to a remote world is that the only safe way for a group to talk is in person. Better communication tools and more bandwidth can't fix this.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

@shandsaker @DanielAndrewsMP Dentists not working means that this problem has a built-in solution! (says me who wants to visit the dentist but cant)

[Lex Fridman @lexfridman]

Air flow from a person breathing, talking, and coughing, with & without face mask. Visualization by @LaVisionInc

[Robert Nelsen @rtnarch]

With this new info, WHO is considering calling a world conference to discuss whether we should consider recommending we all wear hats sometime in 2021.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

The UK's response to COVID-19 explained with a bucket of water

[Louis Stedman-Bryce @Lstedmanbryce]

🚨This is the clearest, most informative video of why the government is not closing schools and quarantining us.

This WILL SAVE LIVES in the long run and make absolutely sure the NHS is not overrun.

Quarantine only when the NHS is at 95% of MAX capacity. We have one shot at it.

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

Australia is roughly level with Italy in COVID-19 tests per capita

Which is an encouraging thought

https://t.co/pUuUtREg9l

https://t.co/4oVII8wke5 - credit to @NSWHealth for regular updates and transparency re: numbers ==> breeds confidence

[Leni Mayo @lenidot]

Excellent paper in @TheLancet on the difficult tradeoffs:

> Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths and the economic impact

> Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals

https://t.co/uHUgzfKrfU

#COVID19

[Dick King-Smith HQ @DickKingSmith]

On the face of it, one might not guess that it has been 50 million years since pinnipeds (seals et al.) evolutionarily split from other caniforms (dogs, etc.) during the Eocene.