LeppyrdTracks

Price leaves tracks. We count the facts.
Real Samples
Real Data
20 years, 6 markets, every stat with its sample.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@Ryan725 Correct but no one cares if it closes green or not. Like no one is trading and saying I’m going to close when the candle closes green. It could close a tick over and be green. You’re right, much better to specify the type then you know if you get expansion or nothing. 🤝

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

What does “Closes as a Green Day” mean anyway?

No one sits there all day and says, “Okay, I’ll trade and exit when this day closes green”.

[Leppyrd @LeppyrdTrading]

This is why you don’t trust 16 sessions over 20 years of data.

Expand it out to 20 years and you see this is only true 56.2% of the time.

Small sample sizes will wreck people believing something that isn’t a true edge.

We’re here to spread transparency with trading & stats.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@MrMilkTrading @TradingLucid This happened to me as well, brutal. Was simply in the middle of reversing positions and boom. On probation forever.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@MrMilkTrading Yup exactly, right now my best thing I’ve found is a formula of profit factor over the previous 20 trades over 50 days. But that’s still chasing what’s “hot” and we know that’s probably never the right thing to do, almost the inverse of that.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@edgeful 85% of YM noon 5-min ORBs double-break

We got 82.4% on 649 sessions. Every hour does it:

10:00 73% · 12:00 82% · 14:00 71%

Noon isn't special.

Range average is 37 pts — $18 on MYM. you'd risk $18 to make $18 at 50.5% WR with fees eating 10% of the range.

That’s not a trade.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@asxcfdtrader Preach 🤝!!

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

This trading space deserves better data than this.

What if I told you, as long as price is above the daily open when Asia closes we have the same odds as closing green on the day as an “Asia breakout”?

Daily candles average 600+ points..who is trading to a “green candle”? 🥀

[edgeful @edgeful]

struggling to build a bias after the Asian session?

15min candles will you the bias you should have…

check it out:

[Austin Clark @AC_Trades]

I swear to baby Thor and Zeus

Im not usually someone that’s “that guy” saying something is wrong or bad in trading

But don’t tell me you’re using stats and then saying “if X candle closes bullish that means NQ closes bullish 70% of the time”

OH GEE BUDDY WOW

You mean to tell me an instrument that is an index fund that the very mechanics of what makes THE NASDAQ 100 skews more bullish than bearish days because people use this index fund for longterm investment accounts, growth, etc

It’s surely not that

It’s because the 0754 candle closed bullish.

Baby Jesus 6 pounds 6 ounces please forgive the next person that shares this

There’s a difference between ACTIONABLE statistics that generate positive net MFE and doo doo cookie cutter Claude prompts

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@edgeful Claim is true, BUT we checked days with NO gap, and
price travels that same distance 90% of the time anyway.

The gap isn't pulling price.
NQ moves that much on a normal day.

90% of people who take vitamin C get over a cold
in a week and so do the people who don't.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@semoi69 @LeppyrdTrading @MrZincx @edgeful Oh I did run this one already lol! Same result, in simple terms if I run a 100 yard race against my brother and give him a 50 yard head start, he wins 90% of the time. 😂

https://t.co/RJzQvvr3uQ

[Leppyrd @LeppyrdTrading]

This is why you don’t trust 16 sessions over 20 years of data.

Expand it out to 20 years and you see this is only true 56.2% of the time.

Small sample sizes will wreck people believing something that isn’t a true edge.

We’re here to spread transparency with trading & stats.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@__ighodalo Absolutely, but showing small sample sizes is not good. That’s why I built LeppyrdTracks to show things over a longer period of time so we have true probabilities instead of a few months. Probabilities over everything. This is how all my algos are built too.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@noahbate Ayyy! Appreciate that good sir!

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@TAkewula https://t.co/tRKXn9PaVa not too active right now but I stream every now and then and some stats channels are in there.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@edgeful 20 years of NQ, not 25 days:

88% single break is 71.0%

Tuesday: 71.1%, the most average day

Friday highest at 76.6%

6.8% of any 25-day window prints 88%.
Small samples give false hopes and dreams.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@edgeful Not true, there is no edge here. The Asia breakout means nothing. Over 20 years: the daily candle closes green if its above the 18:00 open the same percentage with or without the “Asia breakout” better sample size gets it better data. And no one is trading to a “Green Day”

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@AndrewTradesNQ @edgeful Over a 20 year sample.

Asian range breakout: 69.6% n=1,979

Price above 18:00 open when Asia closes (no breakout needed) 69.9% n=1,971

Much larger sample and it shows the breakout makes it 0.3% worse.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@edgeful lol what???

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@AndrewTradesNQ @edgeful Over a 20 year sample.

Asian range breakout: 69.6% n=1,979

Price above 18:00 open when Asia closes (no breakout needed) 69.9% n=1,971

Much larger sample and it shows the breakout makes it 0.3% worse.

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@AndrewTradesNQ @edgeful Only a 6 month sample..

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

@bonehn Haha enjoy brotha!

[LeppyrdTracks @leppyrdtracks]

20+ years of futures data, every question I could think of tested against it.

Full walkthrough.

https://t.co/EsAGdhBsfz