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[Vancouver Value Investor @BCValueInvestor]

Douglas LeoneI Investing Heuristics:

1. Would I put my kids' money into this?

If you want to raise the stakes, you can ask yourself if you would bet your life on this investment?

2. Punch card investing.

You only get 20 investments in a life time— is this investment 1 of those 20? If no, move on.

3. Can this single investment return the whole fund?

In order for this to happen, the company needs have traits that can lead to a positive feed back loop.

Positive feedback loops don’t follow regression to the mean — they follow divergence from the mean

[Kevin Gee @kevg1412]

New from Santa Barbara Management's Bob Casey. Masterclass in messaging and communicating a new offering.

Still the letter I most look forward to reading every month.

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Look at what they do and not what they say

[Hindsight Capital @Klaudnin3]

Chris Hohn is buying rocks and everyone is too busy chasing AI to notice.

TCI's latest 13F, filed in August: a brand new $758M position in $MLM and $722M in $VMC. Fresh money, not adds.

The pricing power is structural. Local monopolies on permitted reserves, freight economics that wall off imports, and a product every road, data center, LNG terminal and power project needs. Vulcan printed mix adjusted pricing up 5% last quarter with aggregates cash gross profit per ton over $12. Martin Marietta is running plus 4% with midyear increases still flowing.

The margin story is a catch up on delay. Two years of diesel and energy inflation masked the compounding underneath. VMC posted $654M of EBITDA while eating a $40M fuel headwind. Price locks in every January and again at midyear while costs reset daily. When the fuel drag fades, the margin expansion shows up late. That lag is the setup.

$MLM's Lhoist deal is the sleeper. $13.5B for the national lime leader: 2 billion tons of reserves, over 200 years of reserve life, and industrial demand from steel, environmental and chemical markets that doesn't cycle with housing. Accretive to earnings and margins in year one. Lime prices like aggregates, but almost nobody models it yet.

The residential bear case is the gift. The affordability trough has private volumes dead, which keeps these cheap, while both footprints sit squarely on data center, power and LNG corridors. A housing reset is upside, not risk.

Hohn doesn't trade stories. He owns franchises for a decade at a time. And right now he's buying rocks.

[RiverRoadPartners @partners_road]

Put a soft ban on the use of AI here. Finding analysts are starting their analysis with a defined thesis (rather than with zero bias/conclusion), then using AI to “over-confirm” their thesis.
Confirmation bias is the most dangerous risk in investing; AI seems to reinforce this.

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

A great question Bill Ruane would ask company management

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

"Start early. Read everything in sight. Look for the successful framework that’s been successful for people, and there’s nothing like Graham’s, in my view.

You’ll have a lot of fun and you’ll probably make a lot of money."

— Warren Buffett

[DanYohannes @RealDanYohannes]

At just 20, he was called up to represent his country at the U20 World Cup while he was beginning to get minutes with Arsenal’s first team. During the tournament, he suffered a devastating ACL injury that kept him out for a long time. His recovery was further complicated by another surgery, and it took more than 18 months before he was able to get back on his feet.

During that difficult period, Wenger, who had been his mentor, left Arsenal. Despite everything, he still returned to first-team preseason training, determined to rebuild his career. Then, tragedy struck again: one of his parents and his sister were involved in a car accident and passed away, forcing him to leave preseason.

When he eventually returned, he was dealing with far more than just being physically unfit. He had also fallen out of Emery’s plans, leading to a loan move where he struggled to find stability and never truly settled at a club.

A footballer’s journey comes with challenges that often remain unseen. From the outside, it can look like a player simply lost their way, but there can be an entire story behind it.

[Dirtcheapstocks @dirtcheapstocks]

Having a lot of fun reading about early 2000's Buffett.

- 2002 junk debt purchases.
- Calling the GFC 4 years before it happened.
- Buying Daehan Flour at ~2x earnings and 40% of net cash.

I'll work up some case studies over the next few months.

[财经悟空 @wukong2021]

95年出生的都32了，人生其实非常短暂，不是每个人都能活到八九十岁，即便长寿，也要忍受衰弱和病痛。基本上七十岁以后就一日三餐，然后在门口坐着发呆，一日复一日一直到死。不生病还好，生病了就更难受了，精力旺盛的好年头可能我也只剩下10-20年了，所以千万别被旁人的眼光或社会的标准框住，想吃什么就吃，想学什么就学，多陪陪惦念的人，多看看世界，享受生活本身，因为人生是仅此一次的体验。

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Steve Schwarzman on how he landed his first job on Wallstreet in 1969

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

“Until you can manage your emotions, don't expect to manage money.”

— Warren Buffett

[Max Sturtevant @maxwellcopy]

How to manufacture your own "luck":

> Don't lock yourself in your room or your town 24/7. Go to business events, go to parties, go to a nice gym. You'll get "lucky" meeting successful people there.

> Post fire organic content. You'll get "lucky" with successful people and opportunities randomly popping up.

> Curate your social media feeds with successful and tactical accounts. You'll get "lucky" with ideas and strategies stumbling onto you while you're scrolling.

> Travel to new cities and countries as much as you can. You'll post an IG story and get "lucky" when a well connected person in the area reaches out to meet up.

> Listen to a business podcast or 1 hour of business YouTube videos per day. You’ll get “lucky” when your next big idea gets inspired from a random thing you heard in a random podcast.

> Test strategies and formats you came up with yourself instead of copying someone else. You'll get "lucky" every now and then by finding something nobody else is doing.

> Be a fun, lighthearted, approachable person. You'll get "lucky" with people approaching you who end up contributing to your business or your personal life.

[Tim Denning @Tim_Denning]

No one is ready.

No one is ready for cancer. No one is ready to get laid off. No one is ready to lose a child. No one is ready to start a business. No one is ready to settle down. No one is ready to lose weight. No one is ready to get divorced. No one is ready to say goodbye to their parents. No one is ready for unexpected depression. No one is ready to see their best friend commit suicide.

No one is ready. No one is ready. No one is ready.

Stick this on your bathroom mirror. Tattoo it to your leg. Never forget.

Ready isn't a feeling. It's a decision.

You must violently decide to lean into the uncertainty and take action. Being action-orientated is a behavior and 99% of people don't do it. As soon as you even think you're ready, the chaos of the world reminds you nothing is predictable.

But there's a hidden strategy. A counterintuitive truth that makes taking action easier. Once you start taking action your fears get smaller because you now have new information about what works and what doesn't. So there's less to be afraid of.

Make big moves. Make the world violently respond to your deepest desires. Make mediocrity your enemy. Make action replace overthinking.

No one feels ready — not me, not you. And definitely not your heroes.

You'll never feel ready. Just start.

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

Companies in the middle of a reinvestment cycle create incredible opportunity: long-term earnings power increases while impatient investors sell the stock, causing its price to decline.

[Shagun 💰 @shaguncrypto]

Move to a small town.

Buy a $200K house instead of a $900K one.

Take the job that gives you more time, not the biggest salary.

Have kids.
Know your neighbors.
Grill in the backyard.
Take road trips instead of luxury vacations.
Pay off the house.
Build a simple life.

Then you’re 70, sitting on the porch with the person you love, watching your grandkids play.

The house isn’t impressive.

The town isn’t famous.

But somehow, you won.

[Durable Value Creators @DurableCreators]

For those curious, here's the latest state of the Durable Value Creators investable universe. I was working through the physical infrastructure group when I made the initial post, but I've now officially included it. There's a couple changes to the core but largely the same ideas

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

On top of normal fluctuations, this shareholder held through a potentially crippling lawsuit from United Technologies and four recessions, including two that hit the airline industry especially hard: 9/11 and Covid.

He belongs on the Mount Rushmore of investing.

[DREN!! @City_Dren]

🚨 Sergio Agüero on Gabriel Jesus joining Barcelona:

🗣️ “Gabriel was never my enemy at Manchester City. He was a fantastic teammate and, honestly, he made me work harder.

Pep once told me, ‘If you don’t perform, Gabriel will take your place.’ He knew Gabriel could play as a striker, from the wing, press defenders and still score.

That versatility is what makes him unique. He can change a game without forcing the team to change its system.

Now Barcelona have signed him, and I understand why Flick wanted him. They needed a striker after the Álvarez pursuit didn’t work, and Gabriel gives them exactly what Flick likes - pressing, movement, link-up play and goals.

With Yamal and Raphinha around him, I think Gabriel can fit Barcelona very well.

He may not be Álvarez, but Barcelona have got a player who can make a serious difference.”

[Rilwan @Real1_balogun]

Man City replaced Gabriel Jesus with Julian Alvarez.

Jesus left for Arsenal and Alvarez joined Atletico Madrid from Man City later on.

Barcelona want Alvarez from Atletico Madrid. Alvarez wants Barcelona too but Atletico Madrid won't sell to Barcelona.

Arsenal want Jesus out and will sell. Arsenal are chasing Alvarez.

As Barcelona have been unsuccessful in their Alvarez pursuit, they turn to Jesus from Arsenal.

Jesus lost his place to Alvarez at Man City.

Alvarez has for the time being, lost his Barcelona dream to Jesus.

It's the Jesus-Alvarez merry-go-round.