ligand

[ligand @ligandew]

@stackhodler How will be nebius fall?

[Eliant Capital @eliant_capital]

Tourists needed to get shaken out after Jackson Hole, but good luck to those fading what can’t be printed when the Treasury (Bessent) is actively telling you they’re pursuing financial repression to achieve their goal of lower yields

[ligand @ligandew]

@stackhodler What about nebius summer :-) ? Are you concerned about a possible implosion of the circular financing which poses a risk especially for neoclouds? Do you think the charts mirror a start of that?

[Brett Winton @wintonARK]

a surprise I think is coming

the quick payback periods and extraordinarily high IRR for AI infrastructure, even at monumental scale, will push up cost of capital sufficient to push many traditional businesses into the abyss, even those without obvious direct AI counter-exposure

[Citrini @citrini]

NVDA is going to break all time highs.

For the NVDA funding shorts, they’ll cover quickly. For the underweight long only managers, that’ll take a bit longer.

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

X feels noisier than ever.

Many investors are deeply confused.

Some of the biggest permabulls are suddenly going heavy into the Mag7, while many of the bears I talk to are now adding hypergrowth AI names.

Feels like the world is upside down.

To be honest if I listen to the reasoning it feels less like intentional, thoughtful diversification or risk management and more like people giving up on having an opinion.

I sense that many people are simply exhausted from keeping up with a constantly changing narrative and volatility over the last two years, from trade wars to real wars to financing concerns.

I feel this exhaustion strongly myself.

I can't go on vacation for a week, or often even relax for a weekend, without waking up to a new policy or macro event that then gets amplified by the media news cycle as if it's the end of the world.

But I think it's time people look at facts & data again.

The visual below is the Nasdaq over the last 10 years.

2016 — Brexit

2018 — U.S.-China Trade War

2020 — COVID-19 Global Lockdowns

2022 — Russia Invades Ukraine

2022 — 40-Year-High Inflation + Aggressive Fed Hikes

2023 — SVB Collapse / Banking Crisis

2024 — Yen Carry Trade Unwind

2025 — DeepSeek AI Shock

2025 — “Liberation Day” Tariffs / Global Trade War Panic

Result: QQQ is up about +545% since the start of 2016.

The reality is that most of the time, the market just shrugs it off.

Most "bad news" are completely meaningless in the face of massive economic growth that happens more silently but consistently, every single day across the global economy.

The 2022 "crash" felt horrible at the time, especially if you worked at an early-stage startup that needed funding.

But even that now looks like a tiny hiccup.

What you really need to internalize is this:

The market is designed to go up.

Economic growth + inflation structurally push stock prices higher over time.

And you're turning bearish now, at the dawn of AGI?

After reading all of this, here's an old Chinese wisdom I want to bestow upon you:

If you have a big shlong, you gotta stay long.

And if you have tits, buy the dips.

[Will @WClemente]

The outlook for medical breakthroughs that we are likely to see in our lifetimes, especially with AI and quantum, have to make you so bullish on life and humans broadly. Just try not to get hit by a bus in the next 10-15 years.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Specialist AI’s (single language, single area of knowledge) are another 100X

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

New $NBIS 2027 Price Target: $927

Now freely available on X.

I still strongly recommend reading the now-free article on Substack, as the formatting makes it much easier to read and follow.

This is my base case, NOT my bull case.

It does, however, assume that we can strongly trust management’s exact guidance, wording, and numbers.

Historically, my assumptions around Nebius ARR have been among the most accurate on X, even before management guided to those levels.

Hope you enjoy it, and please share it with other AI infrastructure investors if you got value from it :)

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

There are times in life when you should consider going full retard.

When:

1) Almost all of the smartest people in AI unanimously tell you that "memory is the bottleneck"

2) Useful end-to-end agents haven't even arrived yet, and they will 1,000x our compute needs

3) Memory supply is growing very slowly while demand is exploding

4) Memory companies trade at some of the lowest forward P/Es in the entire market

That is one of those times when you go full retard.

The 300 IQ move here is to do the 80 IQ thing and simply do the obvious thing.

Turn on your brain for a second to realize you might do well by turning it off here.

$DRAM $SKHY $SNDK etc.

Disclaimer: As of right now I'm personally long SK hynix (Korean listing) and own $DRAM in my Autopilot portfolio.

Not financial advice.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

A long rise to a peak due in 2040 is the expectation from the 60-year cycle in long term rates. It has been working since the 1700s, and is tied to climate cycles.

[Will @WClemente]

https://t.co/Yc7cBblawh

[Travis Kling @Travis_Kling]

Ok so in the last day-

- Bessent’s main crypto advisor quits
- Coinbase CLO quits
- Trump Media sells $165mm of BTC

Did I get that right?

[Citrini @citrini]

What if the really crazy part of the bubble hasn’t happened yet

[ligand @ligandew]

@apruden08 @nic_carter Well that sounds like the good ole times in Dien Bien Phu.
AI disrupting maths
QC
Governance
Concentration
Self custody /coldcard
Adoption
brain drain
volatility
disenchantment

why own a disruptible product if you can own disrupting producers

[nic carter @nic_carter]

Bitcoin maximalism is over. Bitcoin "culture" is over. Bitcoin influencers are over. Every popular hardcore Bitcoin figure has disgraced themself in some way.

Bitcoin will remain, beneficially stripped of the cult around it.

[Pierre-Luc @dallairedemers]

We have ASI now.

It's time to ship fusion reactors, ambient condition superconductors, CRQCs and quantum gravity experiments.

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

tl;dr Leopold will raise more money and buy a shit ton of $NBIS $BE $SNDK

Just without leverage.

He's still up 80% YTD.

He's still 100x richer than all the people making fun of him.

Also got married.

All at 24.

According to X a "loser" and retard.
Lol.

[nic carter @nic_carter]

it brings me no joy to say this but if you’re the kind of guy that can get into a position to lose one or even ten billion dollars you’re the kind of guy that will be entrusted with billions more