Listing Math

Public deal math. Labels on. DM us a listing you're looking at and we'll run the numbers and give our take.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@IanjhReynolds Good first pass: tie the listing's cash flow to tax returns and bank deposits for the same years. If the three don't line up, that's the first question for the seller.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@thedeallshow That's the flag we raise most on listings. If the owner is the brand, ask how much revenue sits on relationships they personally hold, and price a real transition period into the deal.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@walkerdeibel For smaller deals the practical question is cost. Private credit usually prices above SBA, so run debt coverage at the private rate before assuming it fills the gap.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@bizbritain The affordability test is the useful part. Monthly repayment times 12 should fit inside what the plan shows after your own living costs, with room left over if the first few months are slow.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@SMB_Attorney Same thing happens at Main Street size. The hardest seller to deal with is one anchored to an offer from 2021. Price follows today's cash flow, not the old number.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@agazdecki Flip it to the buyer's side: at $2M, a buyer paying 3 to 4x is underwriting roughly $500K to $670K a year of cash flow. The founder's $667K a year is the exit math, not the salary.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

Listing: https://t.co/JPmDZnkU64

$4.5M / $1.0M CF = 4.50× (our math), 38% margin. ~5-yr-old firm riding post-Surfside recerts; owner wants to stay as the face of BD. Ask: revenue by client, signed share of the $10M pipeline, who sells if he leaves.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

Would you buy this? Condo engineering & PM firm, South FL, 9 staff, est. 2021.

Ask $4,500,000. Listed cash flow $1,000,000 = 4.50x (our math).

Verdict: NEED THE BOOKS. Flag: owner is the rainmaker.

Listing-stated, unverified. Not advice.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@RoosterAnalysis Working capital is the line buyers skip most. If customers pay in 45 days, you're funding payroll for the first month and a half after close, and none of that shows up in the down payment.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@jessedilillo One way to see it: price the deal the way a cash buyer would, then compare it to the seller-financed price. The difference is what you're paying for the terms.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@JonMStoddard That gap hits twice: once in the price and again after close. Stock that isn't moving usually has to be discounted to clear, and lenders tend to haircut aged inventory too, so it often isn't worth what the balance sheet says.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@Storage_Venture Agreed on the order. Underwrite it at the price with normal bank debt first, then let the seller note improve the return. If the note is the only reason the numbers work, the price is too high.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@BizScout_ $250K on $128K is about 1.95x. On a restaurant the question is how much of that $128K is the owner working the line. If replacing them costs ~$55K, cash flow is closer to $73K and the multiple is ~3.4x.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@brianbeers Those three numbers also make the coverage check easy. Monthly payment times 12 against the cash flow left after paying a manager tells you whether the business pays the note or you do.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

Listing: https://t.co/mw7bsklOt0

$2.2M / $626K CF = 3.52× (our math). CF is 36% of $1.72M sales. Code-required products on NYC sites; owners retiring, sales partner stays; warehouse must relocate. Ask: top customers, code-change risk, move cost.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

Would you buy this? NYC job-site structures & fire-safety maker, 6 staff, since 2012.

Ask $2,200,000. Listed cash flow $625,618 = 3.52x (our math).

Verdict: LOOK FURTHER. Flag: the warehouse has to move.

Listing-stated, unverified. Not advice.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@downsjoe Self-storage is one of the few deals where the business and the real estate get underwritten together, so the term mix matters a lot. Real estate can amortize over 25 years and the business piece over 10, and that split moves the coverage ratio more than the headline rate.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@zaneccampbell The balloon is the part to plan for. At 0% over 240 months that's $375 a month, so after 60 payments you've paid $22,500 and still owe $67,500. The refi has to work in year 5 at whatever rates are then.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@heIpfullandlord A seller willing to carry paper is also betting the asset keeps paying, which is useful information on its own. Same logic in small business deals: a seller note that gets paid out of the cash flow is the seller putting money behind their own numbers.

[Listing Math @ListingMath]

@SMB_Attorney Those are the businesses that show up on listing sites with no website and a 2-3x multiple. Cabinets, sheds, farm equipment. The catch is usually the same: the owner is the salesman and the best craftsman, so part of the cash flow walks out the door with them.