lkws

[Martin Luk @martinlukkt]

CSCO 2000 vs DRAM 2026
QCOM 2000 vs MU 2026

Tune out all the noise. Only price pays.

[James Muninn @Muninn]

The most frequent advice we get on position sizing is a recipe for blowing up our accounts.

I looked at how Market Wizard Kristjan Qullamaggie actually sized his positions, to go from $9,000 to $105,000,000 in 10 years https://t.co/QNkqL5QvTX

[Ghost @Market0perator]

I came across an article @PradeepBonde wrote and below is a very important excerpt:

- Expertise lead career is one of the way to achieving success
- Expertise is not knowledge, it is situation specific
- Expertise is not age dependent, it is dependent on how much focused effort you put in to building expertise
- Expertise is not hierarchy dependent
- Expertise is more self satisfying process. The title, salary, perks you will get is a side effect
- Expertise building is under your control not dependent on external factors
- Expertise and perspective are two most critical skills in any field

[vnkumar trades 🏌🏽‍♂️🏇🏋🏻‍♂️🐆 @vnkumarvnk]

🚨IMPLIED VOLATILITY FOR EARNINGS NEXT WEEK 📈📉

$MRVL ±19.6% 🔥
$IREN ±16.8%
$AFRM ±16.2%
$BILI ±14.5%
$KSS ±13.5%
$CRWD ±10.0%
$ESTC ±9.8%
$INTU ±9.2%
$ADSK ±8.9%
$PDD ±8.3%
$NTNX ±8.0%
$GAP ±7.5%
$BURL ±7.2%
$BBY ±7.0%
$ULTA ±6.7%
$NVDA ±6.3%
$WDAY ±6.2%
$VEEV ±5.8%
$DG ±5.5%

[Fernando Pertini | DecodeMarkets @DecodeMarkets]

Tom Lee made a very interesting point in Thursday’s @fundstrat Macro Minute.

The first leg of the AI trade was upstream: semiconductors, memory, infrastructure.

Those trades had extraordinary runs and are now correcting

What is gaining traction now is downstream.

Software. Applications.
And, interestingly, $ETH

Ethereum already went through a massive deflation of expectations, while the underlying story kept getting stronger.

Stablecoins. Tokenization. Institutional adoption. And eventually AI agents transacting onchain.

That is what makes this chart so interesting.

Capital may simply be moving from building the infrastructure to owning the rails where the next wave of activity happens.

And that’s why this still feels like the early innings.

The price is starting to move.
The positioning hasn’t.

Most portfolios still own zero $ETH

[茄利略・CUP @KelileoCUP]

Moderna (MRNA) 革命性 melanoma 癌症個人化疫苗療法

背景：黑色素瘤(melanoma)係最惡嘅皮膚癌。 就算做手術切得乾乾淨淨，惡性程度高嘅病人幾年內都有好大機會覆發，而且一擴散到其他器官就好難醫。所以醫學界一直想搵方法：手術之後打啲嘢落去，叫個身體自己免疫系統 「睇場」，唔好俾癌症覆發。

Keytruda 係而家嘅標準做��。 人體免疫系統本身有能力攻擊癌細胞，但癌細胞可以啟動免疫系統嘅 「抑制機制」 (即係 PD-1 通路)，令免疫細胞停止攻擊。Merck 隻 Keytruda 係一種 PD-1 抑制劑，作用係阻斷呢個抑制機制，令免疫細胞恢復攻擊能力。不過佢有一個限制：免疫細胞就算恢復咗活性，都未必能夠準確辨認邊啲係癌細胞。

Moderna 隻疫苗，就係補上 「辨認」 呢一環。 每個病人嘅腫瘤基因突變組合都唔同，而呢啲突變會令癌細胞表面出現一啲正常細胞無嘅蛋白特徵，叫做 neoantigen。做法係：將手術切除嘅腫瘤組織攞去做基因排序，搵出呢個病人腫瘤獨有嘅 neoantigen，再用 mRNA 技術 —— 同 COVID 疫苗同一套製造方法 —— 為佢度身訂造一支疫苗。打咗之後，病人嘅免疫系統會學識辨認呢啲特徵，主動搜尋同攻擊帶有呢啲特徵嘅癌細胞。所以叫 「個人化」：人人支疫苗都唔同，無兩支係一樣嘅。兩隻藥夾埋用，疫苗負責教免疫系統辨認目標，Keytruda 負責解除免疫系統嘅抑制，一個管認、一個管打。

Phase 3 係新藥上市前最後一關、規模最大嘅人體測試。過唔到呢關，前面講得幾動聽都係廢；但過到，就可以攞去監管機構申請上市。今次係史上第一次有 mRNA 癌症療法過到呢關。

個測試點做？搵咗 1,137 個已經做完手術、高風險嘅黑色素瘤病人，以 2:1 分成兩組：三分之二打 「疫苗 + Keytruda」 ，三分之一只用 Keytruda。跟住鬥兩樣嘢：

1）RFS(recurrence-free survival) —— 病人手術後��到幾耐，癌症都冇返嚟。呢個係主要目標。

2）DMFS (distant metastasis-free survival) —— 病人捱到幾耐，癌症都無擴散去遠處器官。呢個係次要目標。

結果：疫苗組兩項都明顯贏晒單用 Keytruda 嗰組，而且贏得夠statistically significant。獨立監察委員會直接提早叫停個測試 —— 因為答案已經清楚，無需要再等。

咁仲有咩未知？ 兩樣：一）公司暫時只講咗 「贏」，未公佈贏幾多 (具體數字留返醫學會議先出)；二）OS (overall survival) —— 即係病人最終係咪真係命長咗 —— 仲要時間跟進。呢個係之後最大嘅懸念位。

點解個市咁癲？因為呢個唔係一隻藥嘅勝利，而係成個技術路線嘅勝利：證明咗 mRNA 唔只係打防疫針，仲可以用嚟醫癌，而且理���上同一套方法可以複製去肺癌、膀胱癌、腎癌。MRNA 一日收 $174.38 ，升 +176.97% ，市值由約250億美元跳上 $69.2B，連帶成個生科板塊創新高。

以下表格列出美國上市相關股票：

[James Muninn @Muninn]

This is the article I wish I had when I started trading. And probably in year two and three as well.. https://t.co/DYcyk8oSMf

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Earnings EP on stocks no more work as all the move is priced in on day 1 in most cases.
So the setup no more works the same way it used to.

The post earnings announcement drift anomaly no more works like it used to, so you have to develop new setups.

https://t.co/GKonpSymxV

[Dr J Rould @jrouldz]

The next time you hear someone compare today’s environment to 2021, show them this list ✍️

$RIVN
2021 Revenue: $55M
2025 Revenue: $5.3B
2021 Market Cap: $150B
Current Market Cap: $22B

$LCID
2021 Revenue: $27M
2025 Revenue: $1.35B
2021 Market Cap: $100B
Current Market Cap: $2.7B

$ZM
2021 Revenue: $4.1B
2025 Revenue: $4.7B
2021 Market Cap: $160B
Current Market Cap: $29B

$TDOC
2021 Revenue: $2.0B
2025 Revenue: $2.5B
2021 Market Cap: $50B
Current Market Cap: $1.2B

$RBLX
2021 Revenue: $1.9B
2025 Revenue: $4.9B
2021 Market Cap: $80B
Current Market Cap: $26B

$U
2021 Revenue: $1.1B
2025 Revenue: $1.9B
2021 Market Cap: $60B
Current Market Cap: $18B

$QS
2021 Revenue: $0
2025 Revenue: $0
2021 Market Cap: $55B
Current Market Cap: $3.4B

$PLUG
2021 Revenue: $502M
2025 Revenue: ~$710M
2021 Market Cap: $40B
Current Market Cap: $2.8B

$NKLA
2021 Revenue: ~$0
2025 Revenue: N/A
2021 Market Cap: $35B
Current Market Cap: BANKRUPT

$PTON
2021 Revenue: $4.0B
2025 Revenue: $2.5B
2021 Market Cap: $50B
Current Market Cap: $2.4B

$AI
2021 Revenue: $183M
2025 Revenue: $389M
2021 Market Cap: $45B
Current Market Cap: $1.45B

$UPST
2021 Revenue: $849M
2025 Revenue: $1.0B
2021 Market Cap: $30B
Current Market Cap: $2.9B

$SPCE
2021 Revenue: $3.3M
2025 Revenue: $1.5M
2021 Market Cap: $15B
Current Market Cap: $390M

$XYZ (then SQ)
2021 Revenue: $17.7B
2025 Revenue: $24.2B
2021 Market Cap: $130B
Current Market Cap: $47B

$ABNB
2021 Revenue: $6.0B
2025 Revenue: $12.2B
2021 Market Cap: $125B
Current Market Cap: $90B

$COIN
2021 Revenue: $7.8B
2025 Revenue: $7.2B
2021 Market Cap: $100B
Current Market Cap: $38B

$ROKU
2021 Revenue: $2.8B
2025 Revenue: $4.7B
2021 Market Cap: $65B
Current Market Cap: $22B

$OPEN
2021 Revenue: $8.0B
2025 Revenue: $4.4B
2021 Market Cap: $30B
Current Market Cap: $3.3B

THAT was market froth. It was *everywhere*. Today's market simply does not compare and anyone who implies otherwise should be muted 😆 I hope you all enjoyed this list, I had fun making it!

[James Muninn @Muninn]

Sell into strength or let it run?

Whatever you decide comes with a side effect

This is the first data I have seen that says how big that side effect actually is 👇 https://t.co/0MsrchQd25

[AnamaTrader @anamatrader]

@PradeepBonde Thanks EG, but one thing I always find difficult with your MM is that it switches fairly quickly between sellers and buyers dominating? In MM it often seems to switch after 2-3 all the time? Or do I misinterpret ?

[Martin Luk @martinlukkt]

Weekend study: Share one observation from the QCOM vs NDX chart that really stands out to you.

You’ll be amazed how much could be extracted from a single chart.

[Will Hu @traderwillhu]

A masterclass by Martin Luk: Why and how to short SKHY, one of the best trades he took recently.
https://t.co/ep8CBEq6cn

[23:35] - [32:50]
I just shorted a bit of SK Hynix. I would like to expand on this a bit. Generally, when I try to take a new trade, most of the time I would like to align with the daily and the weekly first. Actually, the first thing that I look at is the sector or the theme itself, whether they are doing well or not. I don't want to short the stock where its peers or its sector is doing very well, but it's a laggard in a strong sector. I don't want to short the laggard in a strong sector; I would like to focus on the stock in a weak sector. The more stocks look weak within that sector, the better the sector I would like to short, and vice versa. If I'm trying to go long, I would like many of the stocks to look great in an uptrend or show relative strength to the market, doing some bullish candlestick patterns like an undercut and reclaim, or building higher lows and showing some volatility contraction, maybe some inside days.

In this case, I think the semiconductor sector as a whole is just kind of weak to me compared to the market, and I don't really like the volatility and the volume expansion up there. That's the big picture behind there: the first thing is the sector and the theme, and then going to the individual stock.

SK Hynix is definitely one of the huge leaders that is extended into the upside, and now it is breaking down below the 50 EMA. This is the first bounce into the declining 50 and also bouncing into the declining 9. This is the underlying South Korean stock chart. I really love shorting at the first bounce or the first pullback. It also aligns with the previous swing lows from the bear flag here and the declining weekly 9 EMA. This is the daily and also the weekly too. Although the weekly is not that much, the weekly volume expansion is definitely some sign of distribution that I don't really like.

For the intraday, you guys know I love shorting it on the bounce. Luckily, I didn't short at the opening range lows. We got a quick flush into the previous high on this ADR launch date. I consider this as the previous swing high, then it built support, rallying into the unfilled gap and also the declining 9 EMA. Before the close, before it really turned lower, the 9 EMA was around 187. You can go back to the recordings and see how the 9 EMA looks. It was also near the unfilled gap from this huge green candle. We got an unfilled gap below the 188.50 area.

I'm looking at these levels. I think it's definitely okay to overshoot a bit, maybe into the 189 or 190 level. It did find some resistance at 188. When I saw this five-minute candle gradually losing the momentum, I zoomed in into the one-minute chart and used the anchored VWAP on the one-minute chart. This is the technique that I learned from Kristjan Qullamaggie when he's doing parabolic shorts; he always links it to either the anchored VWAP from the open or the high of the day. He uses this on parabolic shorts, but I noticed that it works pretty well on other entries as well. I utilized this entry tactic into this trade.

We got a one-minute bounce into the anchor. I think this is one of the best trades I've taken recently, and hopefully it works out. But if it doesn't, I think this entry is one of the best this year, definitely. We'll see how it plays out. The stop is pretty tight, and I think the entry is pretty concise and logical at that point. Definitely, you can wait for the five-minute breakdown, but the stop will be a little bit wide. Maybe I would have to set it up to this bar's high, which would be a 2% stop. That's why I always look for other types of entry strategies to really tighten my stop and find the best potential risk-reward entry.

Also, the weakness of the whole semiconductor sector and Western Digital helped. Western Digital is the one that I didn't take on the opening range low breakout, and it just went down like gravity, like a bungee jump, showing huge weakness. It also helps the short on SK Hynix too.

The pattern itself is not the most important thing for taking a trade to me. It's all about the theme as a whole, the sector as a whole, and then gradually zooming into the individual stocks—the weekly, the daily, and then the intraday. Sometimes I may also compare it with the index or the sector ETF to really nail the intraday entry, but it really depends. The precise entry really depends because I don't think there's any chart pattern telling you to short right here; I just couldn't find any.

But I would consider this short a really good entry and a really good trade, no matter how it's going to end up. Actually, if you don't look at today's candle, this pattern as a whole is a bullish pattern. It is called a Morning Star, I think, something like that. A red candle with a doji and then a huge green candle on the right-hand side. It's actually a bullish pattern, but I think the pattern really doesn't matter. It's just a gimmick.

[Martin Luk @martinlukkt]

$QCOM has been mentioned repeatedly in my streams as an example of how the next market leader in the AI bull may not have appeared yet. Its stage 2 uptrend began in Jan 1999, near the late stage of the late 1998 lockout rally, and it eventually delivered a staggering 2,900% return after breaking out.

$PANW began its stage 2 uptrend in May 2026, which was near the late stage of the early 2026 lockout rally. I don't know where this thing is going to end up.

$CRWD $FTNT $NET have also shown immense strength during this pullback.

Hey history will you rhyme?

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

The AI "bubble" already popped.
Average drawdown: -42% from peaks so far:

🔴 NuScale $SMR -85%
🔴 Oklo $OKLO -76%
🔴 Redwire $RDW -69%
🔴 Navitas $NVTS -63%
🔴 Oracle $ORCL -62%
🔴 Intuitive Machines $LUNR -62%
🔴 AST SpaceMobile $ASTS -58%
🔴 IonQ $IONQ -57%
🔴 Planet Labs $PL -57%
🔴 Super Micro $SMCI -56%
🔴 Applied Opto $AAOI -56%
🔴 Rocket Lab $RKLB -55%
🔴 IREN $IREN -54%
🔴 Ondas $ONDS -53%
🔴 Tempus $TE -51%
🔴 ServiceNow $NOW -50%
🔴 CoreWeave $CRWV -50%
🔴 Applied Digital $APLD -43%
🔴 Ouster $OUST -42%
🔴 Arm $ARM -42%
🔴 Bloom Energy $BE -39%
🔴 Nebius $NBIS -38%
🔴 Palantir $PLTR -38%
🔴 Marvell $MRVL -37%
🔴 AeroVironment $AVAV -34%
🔴 Cameco $CCJ -33%
🔴 Coherent $COHR -32%
🔴 Western Digital $WDC -31%
🔴 Vistra $VST -30%
🔴 Constellation $CEG -30%
🔴 Microsoft $MSFT -28%
🔴 Intel $INTC -28%
🔴 SanDisk $SNDK -27%
🔴 Lumentum $LITE -26%
🔴 Micron $MU -24%
🔴 Kratos $KTOS -22%
🔴 Broadcom $AVGO -21%
🔴 Vertiv $VRT -19%
🔴 Dell $DELL -17%
🔴 Meta $META -17%
🔴 Red Cat $RCAT -15%
🔴 Alphabet $GOOGL -10%
🔴 Nvidia $NVDA -10%
🔴 AMD $AMD -9%
🔴 TeraWulf $WULF -8%
🔴 Amazon $AMZN -8%
🔴 GE Vernova $GEV -7%
🔴 Taiwan Semi $TSM -6%
🔴 ASML $ASML -5%
🔴 Arista $ANET -5%

UPDATED cheatsheet for you to save:

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

The core principles for my trading I discussed with @RichardMoglen

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Finding setup is most important in the beginning after that situational awareness.
Fix setup problems first.
From the new market wizard book

[Francesco @FranVezz]

A member in the trading room was asking me about $INOD yesterday, and I explained it could work, but wasn’t for me - this is due to the megaphone pattern.

In other words, volatility is expanding, not contracting.

“Wide and loose is for losers, tight is for winners”

- @Qullamaggie

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

What makes stock go up say 100% plus in two months? how does the move starts? How it ends? How many days? What catalyst? Which sector? What price points? What capitalization? IPO year and so on. You want to create a profile of what to look for in big movers at start.

[Martin Luk @martinlukkt]

Parabolic volume expansion🚀

If I could share just one technical edge with others, this would be it.

When stocks are skyrocketing into no man’s land and the market is getting euphoric, it’s even more critical to stay calm and get out fast when the music stops.

There are countless examples of stocks topping out on a massive volume day after a huge move.

It’s so easy to spot and use, no matter what setup you’re following, what time frame you’re using, or what asset you’re trading.

During the trading day, I’ll zoom in and use a 15-minute or 1-hour time frame to watch for volume expansion and sell into strength.

Even if you hide the price, you can spot the top solely by the volume.

Always sell some when the volume is pouring in.

---

I accidentally deleted the original tweet that's why you're seeing it again