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A "pet rock" should not outperform equities long-term in an economy broadly engaged in positive economic value-added activities.
A "pet rock" should absolutely outperform equities long-term in an economy broadly engaged in debt-fueled financial engineering to drive returns.
Exposure is down from earlier highs.
· Are managers right to be cautious at these valuations, or are they once again going to get caught in a pain trade?
· Or will stretched multiples and 1 sided sentiment catch up as tariff effects begin to show?
Goldman on trade court decision: nothingburger
"The administration could quickly replace the 10% tariff with a similar tariff of up to 15% under Sec 122... This would then provide the administration time to launch a series of Sec. 301 cases against larger trading partners "
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Blackstone is now down 40% from its November highs, and is right back at its post-Liberation Day lows.
Remember, this is probably the best run manager of private assets in the world, so just consider how your run of the mill PE or VC shop is looking right now.
No foreigners were not selling Treasuries to punish the US (Trump)
A 3-day tick chart of the Dollar Index (DXY). Note the green annotation. It's up 2.2% from Thursday's low. This is a big move for this short a time frame.
If China or other foreigners were selling Treasuries to drive yields up to punish the US (Trump) for the tariff war, they would have to convert those dollars to a foreign currency. Otherwise, selling Treasuries and leaving the money in dollars in a US bank is pointless.
If they sold enough Treasuries to swing yields as wildly as they did today, the subsequent selling of dollars to exit the US would have driven down the dollar. Instead, it rallied more than usual.
This suggests that foreign money was moving into the US, not away from it. As I described above, the selling was more domestic and more concerned about inflation.