Zac

Looking at snowfall from a long term perspective. Follow snap.hibbo on Instagram for photography projects.

[Zac @longrangesnow]

https://t.co/BIAQ3ueLab

My North American winter snowfall outlook is now available with climate driver analysis and conclusions. Apologies for its lateness, but I hope you all appreciate it :)

[Zac @longrangesnow]

@MattHugo81 Not that surprised that it is coming back up…

[Zac @longrangesnow]

As we see a rapid decline in the SH stratospheric polar vortex to end our somewhat up and down season, we see a somewhat unexpected stagnation to the building of the NH stratospheric polar vortex:
Images: @zd1awrence

[Anthony Sharwood ❄️ @antsharwood]

Thundersnow at Mt Buller, Australia, tonight. Yes thundersnow

[Zac @longrangesnow]

1st analog: Neutral ENSO years preceded by Nina, controlled against +IOD years
2nd analog: Years with similar Indian Ocean and Western Pacific SSTA patterns.

[Zac @longrangesnow]

https://t.co/0YxbuxLpDx

My look at the Australian winter forecast, looking at a slightly above average winter, given climate drivers and analogs. #aussnow @JaneBunn @weatherzone @Gergyl @Snowatch @Mountainwatch1 @PerisherResort @ThredboResort @mtbuller @_hotham @fallsaustralia

[Zac @longrangesnow]

From the relatively fresh EC seasonal run: troughing for the Australian Alps throughout winter, a good sign. Best precipitation anomalies in Aug/Sept. A tad warm in June, colder than usual in Sept, suggesting a backloaded snowfall season #aussnow

[Zac @longrangesnow]

@Gergyl are you going to get around to your Aus snow season prediction this year?

[Zac @longrangesnow]

However lots of moisture from the tropics isn’t always a good thing, and warm temps in the Great Australian Bight may weaken the power of cold fronts hitting SE Australia.

Still a variety of factors and plenty of time until the snow season really starts going though #aussnow 4/4

[Zac @longrangesnow]

Just some thoughts on the upcoming Australian snow season (thread): EC looking the best for July and to a lesser extent August, and potentially a poor June and Sept (which is workable as they aren’t usually the key snowy months anyway) 1/4 #aussnow

[Zac @longrangesnow]

Although it’s not a Nina (those ENSO regions starting to warm during our winter), the cool SSTs in the SH tropical Pacific matched with the warm SSTs to Australia’s NE and NW bodes well for plenty of moisture for snowfall.
3/4 #aussnow

[Zac @longrangesnow]

EPS pretty convinced for over 5 feet of snowfall for Lake Tahoe for the next 10 days as well. #tahoewx

[Zac @longrangesnow]

8-10 feet possible over the next 10 days over the Sierra range peaks, focused on the period from Wednesday to Friday. 4-5 feet for Lake Tahoe level. #tahoewx

[Zac @longrangesnow]

https://t.co/jnKuGOh0tW

Cold and snowy for the next 2 weeks for Europe, afterwards depends on the GWO staying in the -AAM phases and the progress of the polar vortex and the NAO....

[Zac @longrangesnow]

And as for Southern Europe and the UK, it’s giving it a go, hopefully the pattern changes start to bear some fruit:

[Zac @longrangesnow]

Just a reminder that the current strong -AO state is bringing snowy weather events in uncommon locations, even if it isn’t in the Eastern US as of yet. It’s certainly bringing the cold deep down into the CONUS.

[Brad Tollefson @Brad_Tollefson]

Three to four inches of snow fell on Texas Tech last night and this morning.

[Zac @longrangesnow]

And it looks like it’s going to stick around for a while yet (though that hint of +AO is of concern who want to see this state push into February)

[Zac @longrangesnow]

My latest Japanese long term snowfall forecast is out now:

https://t.co/Q0uIDe3Qtj

[Zac @longrangesnow]

Strong positive EAMT, Strong Aleutian Low, SSW, -AO tropospheric base state, some real potential brewing for the Eastern and Southern US for snowfall risk.

More discussion here:

https://t.co/9mviFLepvx

[Zac @longrangesnow]

Possibility of a colder and snowier January for Southern Europe and the UK, thanks to a possible SSW and favourable GWO/AAM conditions in the forecast, more in the forecast below:

https://t.co/olXQcycQeD