Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
$CBRS $CRWD: Why Cerebras Is Essential Infrastructure for AI Cybersecurity
The $CRWD partnership and this video, which has only 367 views, were largely buried beneath the Iran headlines and broader macro bearishness. Yet this is another major reason I remain incredibly bullish on $CBRS: cybersecurity could become one of the largest and most natural markets for Cerebras.
The reason is simple. Cybersecurity is an enormous real-time inference problem. Modern security platforms ingest staggering volumes of endpoint, identity, cloud and network events. AI must correlate signals across multiple systems, determine whether activity is benign or malicious, select a response and act before an attacker can exfiltrate data, encrypt another machine or move laterally through the organization.
Cerebras CISO Naor Penso explains the requirement clearly:
“There is no viable way for AI to be adopted into that ecosystem if it’s not in real time.”
“Every minute counts.”
“Real time is critical for cybersecurity…and for AI it is really important to have fast inference in order to hit that real-time mark.”
This is exactly where Cerebras’s architecture becomes strategically valuable. Security investigations increasingly require multi-agent systems. One agent analyzes network activity. Another examines endpoint behavior. Others check identity, cloud logs, historical patterns and threat intelligence. Their conclusions then feed into a larger reasoning model that determines whether the event is benign, requires human review or demands immediate action.
Every sequential model call adds latency. Penso explains that with conventional inference, a complex chain of agents can turn a single investigation into “30 seconds, a minute, two minutes or three minutes” before reaching a resolution.
In cybersecurity, those minutes have consequences.
“Every minute is another few hundreds of megabytes of data that could have left the organization.”
“Every minute that is passing by with ransomware running in the environment is another minute, another computer getting infected.”
Fast inference therefore affects far more than chatbot responsiveness. It determines whether sophisticated AI reasoning can operate inside the window in which a cyberattack can still be stopped.
Cerebras can allow security platforms to deploy larger, more capable models and networks of specialized agents while preserving real-time performance. That creates the possibility of deeper investigation, higher-quality conclusions and faster automated response.
Penso describes the advantage:
“With fast inference, you’re getting hyper-fast speeds of responses across all your agents and still not caving in on the quality.”
That is the importance of the $CRWD partnership.
CrowdStrike is using Cerebras technology, while Cerebras has selected CrowdStrike as its cybersecurity platform. This is a reciprocal commercial and technical relationship between a leading AI inference company and one of the world’s leading cybersecurity platforms.
Penso says CrowdStrike recognizes the same architectural requirement:
“CrowdStrike sees exactly what we believe is true, which is fast inference is imperative for the success of cybersecurity.”
He summarizes the partnership this way:
“We’re providing the fastest inference on earth and the highest quality as well…and CrowdStrike delivers the best endpoint security in the world.”
CrowdStrike gives Cerebras a powerful real-world validation point. Falcon operates at immense scale, where latency, throughput and response quality directly affect the product. If Cerebras can help CrowdStrike reason across its security data faster, respond to threats sooner and make Charlotte AI more capable, this partnership could become a showcase for Cerebras across the entire cybersecurity industry.
Other vendors face the same problem. Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne, Microsoft, Zscaler, Cloudflare and countless security startups all want increasingly autonomous AI agents. Those agents must investigate threats, query multiple tools and generate reliable answers almost instantly.
The competitive question may become: How intelligent can your security platform be while remaining genuinely real time?
That is a hardware and inference problem, and Cerebras was built specifically to solve it. The long-term opportunity extends beyond one CrowdStrike deployment. Cerebras could become an inference layer beneath AI-driven detection, investigation and response across the cybersecurity industry.
Penso’s conclusion captures the urgency:
“If we as security practitioners don’t adopt AI, we will be breached very fast.”
“AI is today, in my mind, the only viable way for us to scale.”
Attackers are using AI to increase their speed, sophistication and targeting. Defenders will need AI systems capable of reasoning and responding at machine speed. Cerebras offers the rare combination of model intelligence, massive throughput and extremely low latency that this transition requires.
Cybersecurity is becoming an AI inference race.
CrowdStrike choosing Cerebras suggests that Cerebras intends to be the engine helping the defenders win it.
Long $CBRS.
Hiring Tony Robbins today costs 1 million dollars for just one day.
This is a 21-minute tape recorded in his own home more than 30 years ago.
There, he explains exactly how to get anyone to say yes.
The same material for which they now charge a fortune... completely free.
It's a rare, unfiltered recording from the time when he still didn't charge millionaires just for being in the same room.
When someone says no, they give two excuses:
“I don’t have time” or “I don’t have money”
Neither is true.
The real reason is that they still don’t believe it’s worth it.
It’s not a money problem. It’s a state problem.
Tony teaches something he calls “attack and confess”
Instead of arguing the objection, you confess your own:
“I had the chance to go six months ago and I didn’t until two months ago.
I can’t even imagine the time I wasted”
The room goes silent. No one argues.
Then he gets the person on the “yes train”
Each little yes adds to the next.
Until saying no at the end feels harder than saying yes.
When it’s time to sign, the person has already said yes five times without realizing it.
Just 21 minutes.
There you learn the two only moves that people pay 1 million a day for:
how to read anyone’s state… and how to shift it.
Most people spend years guessing in sales.
He wrote it on a flipchart in his living room in less than half an hour.
A seat in that room cost $125 dollars.
Today it costs $1 million dollars a day to sit in front of him.
The tape is free right now.
And the answer is in this video.
Anthropic engineer: “At Anthropic, we don’t write prompts anymore. We build loops.”
In just 42 minutes, she breaks down how the Claude team builds systems that can prompt themselves.
If this were a $400 course, people would probably call it one of the best agent courses of the year.
But it’s completely free.
Watch it.
I've been digging into @bendingspoons and I'm intrigued... their entire business model is built around buying former tech/internet darlings that have been crushed and forgotten... these companies need a combination of better management, better product, better marketing, better margins, etc.
Over the past 5+ years they have acquired a bunch of companies including AOL, Vimeo, Brightcove, Streamyard, WeTransfer, Eventbright, Airtable, Meetup, Evernote and many more.
Just today they announced the acquisitoin of Miro for $1.35B which was valued at $17.5B fust a few years ago. Based on publicly available information and what they have disclosed, it appears they're buying these companies at a 85-95% discount from their highs... which could be public or private valuations.
Four weeks ago they reported Q2 earnings... revenues up 126% YoY, operating incomg up 139% YoY, net income up 171% YoY
https://t.co/X8ZV3buKZF
Some of these numbers are slightly misleading (ie revenues) because of the acquisitions but they're not growing this fast at the expense of profits... posting non-GAAP net income margins of 42% in Q2 although GAAP net income margins are only 25% -- I suspect both numbers have room for improvement in the coming quarters/years.
If you believe that ai doesn't kill all consumer/enterprise software and they can live together... perhaps integrating ai into software to make it better for customers while making it cheaper for $BSP to operate/improve.
I will definitely keep this one of my radar.
Feel free to share your thoughts on $BSP, their business model, their acquisition strategy, etc.
Starting on Sept 15th, SpaceXAI team members will build a company from the ground up using Grok @Bot and livestream it. Link to register for the stream is below.
Agenda:
"Starting with an idea and a blank slate, they’ll work through a business plan, feature decisions, and real engineering work to turn a concept into a reality. Over the course of this three-day livestream, you’ll be able to follow their building in real time and will see how Grok Bot fits into each stage of the development process.
Throughout the livestream, we’ll also hand off to teammates for department-specific deep dives. From the first line of code to setting customers up for success, you’ll learn how to use Grok Bot for real workflows across every stage of your business, and will walk away with actionable use cases for your function.
The livestream runs from 8:30 AM - 6:00 PM every day, with the following guest sessions:
Day 1: September 15
• 9:00 - 10:00 AM: Grok Bot 101
• 12:30 - 2:00 PM: Grok Bot for Engineering
• 2:30 - 4:00 PM: Grok Bot for Product Managers
• 4:30 - 5:30 PM: Grok Bot for Founders
Day 2: September 16
• 9:00 - 10:30 AM: Grok Bot for Sales Engineering
• 12:30 - 2:00 PM: Grok Bot for Sales
• 2:30 - 3:30 PM: Grok Bot for SDRs
• 4:00 - 5:00 PM: Grok Bot for Customer Support
Day 3: September 17
• 9:00 - 10:30 AM: Grok Bot for Marketing Operations
• 12:30 - 1:30 PM: Grok Bot for Post-Sales
• 2:30 - 4:00 PM: Grok Bot for Marketing"
Link to register for livestream: https://t.co/ncKCtdL3ui
Let me get this straight chat… you have:
$NVDA 70% supply constrained revenue growth projections (would be 100%+)
$AVGO AI revenue growing 100%+ Y/Y for next 2 years from mid ~$50B -> $230B
OpenAI Astra blowing away AGI benchmarks and starting to train itself.
$MSFT / $GOOGL / $AMZN stating compute demand imbalances into next year, with Nvidia projecting $1.3T spend for 2027.
You’re seeing this flow through supply chains from Samsung 70% capacity LTAs into 2031 to Powertech advanced packaging capacity 100% booked into 2030.
Even your legacy players like Winbond are starting 2029-2030 allocations.
Markets always have temporary drawdowns and macro scares… but…
How can anyone not think AI stock go brrr?
In 1991 a Stanford professor turned $100,000 into $7 million off two stocks that went nowhere - using nothing but their swings. Wall Street was so rattled it buried his math for 30 years.
His name was Thomas Cover, and in information theory he was royalty - he wrote the textbook the whole field still learns from. Then he did something no one asked for. He pointed Claude Shannon's math at the stock market.
He took two forgettable stocks. On their own, over 20 years, one rose 4x and the other 8x - nothing special. But they jumped around hard, and out of sync. So he rebalanced them daily: trim the one that popped, add to the one that dropped. That pair returned over 70x. The gain never came from the companies. It came from the shaking.
The rule behind it is one line:
W* = max E[log bᵀX]
Maximize the expected log of your wealth, not the average return. Average return says dump everything into the top stock. Log says spread and rebalance - because compounding runs on the geometric mean, and volatility becomes fuel instead of risk.
Then Cover went further. He built a portfolio that keeps pace with the best rebalancing you could have picked with a year of hindsight - no forecasts, no model. It held through the crashes of 1929 and 1987. And the same constant that runs it shows up in file compression. To Cover, beating the market and zipping a song were the same problem.
He never found a better stock. He found the money hiding in the fact that stocks move at all.
I turn 50 today. This is a message to my kids but I offer it to you in case any of it rings useful.
I was born in Sri Lanka in 1976 in a country that, at the time, was about to enter a decades long civil war. My father was able to get stationed at the Sri Lankan High Commission in Canada for four years in the early 80s - when some of the fighting was most severe - and which from our vantage point in Canada gave us some respite from an otherwise omnipresent conflict.
He came as a diplomat but then my father filed for refugee status after four years when his life was threatened by militants. We stayed in Canada as refugees. My dad never really landed on his feet and we grew up on welfare.
My mom stepped up. She did an incredible thing and put our family on her back and kept marching forward. Sometimes the steps were very small but she always tried to keep moving forward.
I worked at Burger King starting at 14, giving my paycheck to my mom and dad to support our family in the role that I was assigned - earn enough to pay for our bus passes because we couldn’t afford a car.
I was a loser growing up. Some friends, some good memories but mostly forgettable and lonely. I wasn’t very studious but did get my act together in my final year and got into a great university.
I immigrated to the US soon after graduating and found an opportunity. Things clicked and I have been traveling a path to find myself ever since. Only in America is this possible…
I worked hard, followed the rules, paid my taxes and stayed in California out of loyalty for the opportunities it has given me despite its dysfunction.
I found my wife here. Had my kids here. Found my tribe here.
There have been some very hard times as well - deaths, divorce, financial pain, mistakes of omission and mistakes of commission. You can’t dwell on these things - they are weights that will pull you down if you’re not careful. Learn from them. Respect them. BUT MOVE ON.
To think 50 years ago I could have ever gotten a chance to meet the people I’ve met and have had the experiences I’ve had would have been mind boggling to my parents. It’s mind boggling to me now.
We forget often and try to convince others it’s not true but America truly is the best country in the world. Everything and anything is possible here. I can testify. Be grateful to be here.
This is the only place that gives EVERYONE a chance to live a great adventure. The first 50 years have been that for me - an incredible adventure.
Notice there is nothing here about accomplishments or money. Because it doesn’t matter and it won’t matter.
You will be dust in less than 100 years from now and the decision to be remembered won’t be yours so stop sweating it. It’s not in your control.
So what is in your control?
Be kind. Have fun. Work on something meaningful to you. Find your tribe. Try to find perspective. Find an incredible partner. Have a bunch of kids. Live an adventure. Forgive your parents - they were doing the best they could even if that wasn’t what you deserved.
I will do what I can to make my next 50 years a wild ride.
You should too.
I love you and thank you. ❤️
🙏🏽🙏🏽
Manlobbi believes an explosion of yet-to-be-created AI applications plus decade-long power/grid/copper constraints could keep the overall AI infrastructure investment supercycle going for 15–20 years, disproportionately benefiting scaled platforms such as $META/ $GOOGL and infrastructure bottleneck owners.
https://t.co/qBcWUwCp2D
Consensus estimate is that ~15GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027.
This is harder than just finding power, as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid-cooling, (massive) chillers & complex networking. https://t.co/cRXJ1Wrkri
My friend applied to 250 tech jobs in two years. No MIT. No Stanford.
Last month SpaceXAI offered him $850,000.
I asked him how he broke in from zero.
He sent me the exact video that got him in. Google's 1 hour course on "Full AI Engineering in 2026".
Ex- Google Jeff Dean shows you exactly how to build AI agents like Grok Bot from scratch.
I watched it last night.
Halfway through, I realized I could break into an AI lab in weeks, not years.
Bookmark this and read the article below.
• 00:00 - LLM foundation
• 17:22 - how to actually use AI models
• 30:03 - AI prompt engineering
• 52:35 - one human coordinating 100 AI agents
We had a great call with $AAOI management yesterday... we were very bullish going into the call... we're even more bullish after the call and thus increased our position by approximately ~15%.
Management reiterates that demand is not the problem.. it's all about capacity which is why they're doing the $600M ATM offering... they need to continue increasing capacity for the overwhelming demand they see coming over the next few years.
It certainly doesn't sound like $AAOI will have any problems hitting their mid-2027 targets (management sounds extremely confident) which implies at least $3.5-4.0B revenues for CY2027. I think there's a decent chance they do $4.5-5.0B revenues next year.
$AAOI is already sitting on 2 LTAs from hyperscalers and said they could have several more if they had the capacity.
Reading between lines, seeing another ATM offering and knowing their desire to continue building out capacity in Texas... I'll be surprised if they're not doing at least $550-600M revenues per month by end of 2027 with a decent chance they're doing $650-700M (or more).
Assuming CY2026 revenues come in close to $1.1 billion... I think the odds are increasing that $AAOI does at least 300% revenue growth next year (CY2027) followed by at least 80-120% growth in 2028.
If $AAOI does $4-5B revenues next year and then on track to double that number in 2028... I fully expect this to be a $500-600 stock in the next 18-24 months.
We own at least 5-6 stocks that I believe can be 5-baggers within the next 2 years... $AAOI is one of them... obviously they need to execute really well and the upside will be significant if they do :)
NFA.
DYOR.
*We are long $AAOI at @FirstWaveFund