Henry

run it up

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

STRIKE. 💥🦅

[Dip Wheeler @DipWheeler]

they're gambling on live traffic now.....we're cooked.

[ShortSeller @ShortSeller]

$NBIS So city council meeting had a lot of community pitchforks 1/13 ...but nothing new - and my sense is the board is bought and paid for (so no new threat to NBIS) ...what WAS interesting is that apparently NBIS just this week petitioned the PJM Grid for 50mw of power

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

New Pershing Square letter, a must read for me.

https://t.co/C3URNktKZ0

[SpacBobby @SpacBobby]

$UNH - Wow!

One of the most successful hedge funds in the world, Renaissance Technologies’ Q2 filings shows a new $420 million position in UnitedHealth.

Boolish!

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

I thought I would take some time to explain why I feel confident in the path the reinstated CEO of $UNH is taking including the EPS Guidance, linked Buyback strategy and showcase why the current challenges faced are less special than most would believe.

We will look at a timeline from 2006 to 2021 and I will try to showcase how the strategy led to 67 consecutive quarters of beats from Q1 2008 until Q4 2024.

2006

Buybacks:
Repurchased 70.4 million shares for $3.3 billion (2006 10-K). Authorization: $3 billion. Q4: ~30 million shares at ~$47 average price.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$2.85–$2.90; actual adjusted EPS $2.97, beating Q3 and Q4 by $0.05–$0.10.

Challenges/Scandals:
Stock options backdating scandal led to stock price dip to ~$45 (from ~$60).

2008

Buybacks:
Repurchased 103.2 million shares for $3.5 billion (2008 10-K). Q1: $1.2 billion; Q2: $0.9 billion; Q3: $0.8 billion; Q4: $0.6 billion. Authorization: $5 billion in November.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$3.00–$3.15; actual adjusted EPS $3.14, beating Q2 and Q3 by $0.03–$0.07.

Challenges/Scandals:
Financial crisis dropped stock to ~$20 from ~$36. DOJ probed Medicare Advantage billing.

Q1–Q2 buybacks aligned with market lows.

2009

Buybacks:
Repurchased 46.1 million shares for $1.3 billion (2009 10-K). Q1: $0.5 billion; Q2: $0.4 billion; Q3: $0.2 billion; Q4: $0.2 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$2.90–$3.00; actual EPS $3.24, beating three quarters by $0.05–$0.12.

Reduced buybacks as prices recovered.

2011

Buybacks:
Repurchased 39.4 million shares for $1.7 billion (2011 10-K). Q1: $0.5 billion; Q2: $0.4 billion; Q3: $0.4 billion; Q4: $0.4 billion. Authorization: $3 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$3.95–$4.05; actual adjusted EPS $4.73, beating all quarters by $0.10–$0.15.

Challenges/Scandals:
ACA uncertainty caused stock dip to ~$36.

Q2–Q3 buybacks targeted ACA-related dips.

2014

Buybacks:
Repurchased 34.1 million shares for $2.7 billion (2014 10-K). Q1: $0.7 billion; Q2: $0.7 billion; Q3: $0.6 billion; Q4: $0.7 billion. Authorization: $3 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$5.50–$5.60; actual EPS $5.70, beating Q3 and Q4 by $0.05–$0.10.

Challenges/Scandals:
ACA exchange losses and Catamaran acquisition scrutiny led to stock dip to ~$95.

2015

Buybacks:
Repurchased 26.3 million shares for $2.8 billion (2015 10-K). Q1: $0.8 billion; Q2: $0.7 billion; Q3: $0.7 billion; Q4: $0.6 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$6.15–$6.35; actual EPS $6.45, beating three quarters by $0.05–$0.12.

Q1 buybacks targeted ACA-related dips.

2017

CEO Change:
David Wichmann became CEO in September.

2018

Buybacks:
Repurchased 20.2 million shares for $4.1 billion (2018 10-K). Q1: $1.0 billion; Q2: $1.1 billion; Q3: $1.0 billion; Q4: $1.0 billion. Authorization: $6 billion in November.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$12.30–$12.80; actual adjusted EPS $12.88, beating three quarters by $0.10–$0.20.

Challenges/Scandals:
DOJ probed Medicare Advantage upcoding; “Medicare for All” fears caused Q4 dip to ~$220.

Q4 buybacks intensified during sell-off.

2020

Buybacks:
Repurchased 12.4 million shares for $3.5 billion (2020 10-K). Q1: $1.5 billion; Q2: $0.5 billion; Q3: $0.7 billion; Q4: $0.8 billion. Authorization: $5 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$16.00–$16.50; actual EPS $16.88, beating all quarters by $0.10–$0.25.

Challenges/Scandals:
COVID-19 delayed procedures, dropping stock to ~$230 in March.

Buyback Opportunism:
Q1 buybacks surged during COVID dip.

2021

CEO Change:
Andrew Witty became CEO in April.

Buybacks:
Repurchased 14.1 million shares for $5.1 billion (2021 10-K). Q1: $1.4 billion; Q2: $1.3 billion; Q3: $1.2 billion; Q4: $1.2 billion.

EPS Guidance and Performance:
Guidance ~$18.10–$18.60; actual EPS $19.02, beating three quarters by $0.15–$0.25.

Challenges/Scandals:
DOJ indicted Surgical Care Affiliates for pre-acquisition antitrust violations, causing volatility.

Key Observations

UNH repurchased ~265 million shares for ~$24.1 billion, reducing shares outstanding by ~20% (from ~1.35 billion in 2006 to ~950 million in 2021).

Peaks buyback pace lines up with downturns:
2006: $3.3 billion
2008: $3.5 billion
2015: $2.8 billion
2020: $3.5 billion

$UNH guides conservatively during these periods EPS and beats:
2006: $2.85–$2.90 vs $2.97
2008: $3.00–$3.15 vs. $3.14
2015: $6.15–$6.35 vs $6.45
2020: $16.00–$16.50 vs. $16.88

These downturns and buybacks often align with some 'this time i different news/scandal:

2006 options scandal
2008 financial crisis
2014–2015 ACA fears
2020 COVID

The result proves how effective the management has been to return shareholder value, with the stock rising from ~$16 in 2009 to ~$600 in 2024.

I will include the chart below to illustrate this dynamic, you won't see 2006, but we dipped as well and once again, buybacks were increased drastically when we dipped from 44 to 33 (25% drawdown.)

Guide low, buy back shares at increased pace, beat and the stock recovers. Over and over again.

[intern @intern]

“i thought you owned bitcoin…what the hell is harry potter obama sonic inu

[Zack Voell @zackvoell]

“welcome back diamond hands, how was the moon?”

[cevo @cryptocevo]

All of you

[sophie @netcapgirl]

my man knows a thing or two about silicon

[Henry @longsanghenry]

Strong holding $IXS

[cevo @cryptocevo]

$CPOOL first tp is $1 wont touch bags before this happens

[Ace @Ace_da_Book]

$CANTO repricing imminent with parallelized EVM announcement.

Monad raised at $1b valuation pre-token

SEI trading at $8.3b FDV

Canto $291m FDV.

[Eclipse @EclipseFND]

Eclipse's Ethereum bridge enforces the security of the L2.

This deep dive outlines the technical details of our bridge, how blocks are posted to Celestia, and our fraud proof design, distinct from implementations common across EVM-based L2s.

https://t.co/yarOMY67hq

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

This is the most important Matt 7:6 price chart I think I have ever shared via a Xeet. My recommendation is for all investors to have exposure to #Gold $GC_F $GLD $XAU

[Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas]

Gold Miners sentiment back toward the Sep lows

[Jesse Felder @jessefelder]

'The rise in renewable electricity generation could substantially boost demand for copper.' https://t.co/Hv9vKn7I9B via @SoberLook @RealAlpineMacro

[Amy Nixon @texasrunnerDFW]

“US Homeowners are in great financial shape”

“This isn’t 2008”

US Homeowners searching Google this month:

[FxMacro @fxmacro]

BlackRock IShares Files for Spot Bitcoin ETF... GBTC is a massive buy
trading at a 44.5% discount

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Hear me out.

Mistral AI, a French AI company was just valued at ~250 million:

- Company created a month ago

- They don’t even have a product

- Employees have barely started working

No frenzy to see here, all rational behavior and valuations…..