things that are supposed to "work" in investing/trading but actually have a 0% success rate
-sotp
-buybacks
-"paying a dividend will create/expand into a new yield-oriented shareholder base"
-"how did IR sound" "how did the CFO sound" etc
-RSI
-mean-reversion of any valuation metric or multiple
-debt to GDP, entitlement spending, other doomer pitches that end with "and then the 30-year goes to 12%"
-"wait until the market realizes that the depreciable life of their office kitchen microwave is 5 years and not 6"
-NAV discount
-M&A synergies
-ERP implementations (unless ur short)
-if 2nd best player with 30% margins can get to 1st's 40% margins...catch up trade --> 50% upside. then you learn its structural
-any/all intraday trading color esp on progress of any "big client" order - if an elephant doesnt want to leave a trail, there's infinite ways to do so thru swaps/derivatives/etc. same for all "unusual options flow," if they dont want to be seen, u aint gonna see em
-"an activist could get involved here"
-"email the ceo and tell him and other insiders to buy some stock"
-"the AI overhang will lift as long as the quarter is okay"
-short squeezes
-lock-up expiration
-analyst day trade / conference day trade / investor day
-"I could see PE getting interested here around 5x EBITDA"
-variant view on FX for the qtr
-shorting Deere
@bookdepth@fute_nukem Allocators have never replicated anything cheaply and they also don't really care about alpha if the "beta" returns they are getting are 3-4x higher than QQQ. Idio only matters inside podshops. No one cares about Chris Hohn or Bill Ackman's factor risk.
@CasinoCapital The UK mindset is to obsess over getting on the property ladder (and underperform inflation) and completely disregard the most straightforward way of wealth building
@MichaelCGlasper There was absolutely no need for detailed research to predict that outcome and the trade was far from a monster success. Anyone with half a brain and a simple UK trading account (like Hargreaves) could have replicated it.
@evantindell@Adam_Wyden can we get an update on this? Will you roll the $RICK bailout into $CDON? 46x upside based on what you told Swedish retail investors! If you liked it at 1000 SEK you must LOVE it at 65 🤡