The Long Telegram

A podcast about geopolitics, predictions, and more from @GeovaneVideo.

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates

🎙️: https://t.co/qt7UDugyld

[Clay Graubard @ClayGraubard]

Some scattered thoughts and rapid predictions on the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War: https://t.co/kyJRarcjQY

🔮 Forecast: The Russo-Ukrainian War is set to end this year (~80% odds) and Ukraine will lose it (~95% odds).

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 002: Is the United States and Iran headed for War? + Israel-Hamas, Turkey-Sweden NATO updates

🎙️ The next @LongTelegramFM episode is out! Watch below or find links to the mp3, YouTube video, and all podcast platforms on our website: https://t.co/vqujhJuUhj

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 A 50% chance of a multi-front war conditional on Israel invading Gaza?? + a whole lot more about the 🇮🇱🇵🇸 conflict.

🎙️ The @LongTelegramFM is finally here. Watch below or find links to the mp3, video, and more at our website: https://t.co/TYQc6Q9h7B

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

🆕 001: Will Israel fight a Multi-Front War after invading Gaza? w/ @D1Wheeler and @ezra_brodey

🎙️: https://t.co/Una3aG9ZO1

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 10/16/23
2️⃣ Diving into @RobinHanson's vision for Prediction Markets
3️⃣ The @NYTimes covers PMs and @ManifoldMarkets
& more

🆕 Predictions 004: https://t.co/FgWfzQv6FH

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 What if @robinhanson is right and everyone else is wrong about the future of prediction markets?
➡️ https://t.co/iCxggBt05M

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

1️⃣ News in Numbers for Week 9/11/23
2️⃣ Diving into Natural Disaster Forecasting
3️⃣ Forecasting Saudi-Israeli Normalization
4️⃣ CFTC outlines Prediction Market stance
& more

🆕 Predictions 003: https://t.co/SexbUCpkHD

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

Celebrate your #forecastFridays with the inaugural edition of our newsletter Predictions:
1️⃣ News in Numbers
2️⃣ Opinion: Merits of Long-Term Forecasting
3️⃣ Global Guess: More African Coups?
4️⃣ Base Rate News: Forecasting & Prediction Markets

Read now: https://t.co/IYouyPZiek

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

We can't wait for @ManifoldMarkets' Manifest Conference this fall on #forecasting and #prediction markets! https://t.co/R1me03xe5o

In anticipation, we collected our best relevant content ft @Kalshi @metaculus @smarkets @PredictIt + more to get you ready ⤵️https://t.co/THEYcchoQN

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🚨 A new episode of The Long Telegram is out!

On this episode we sat down with @zakavkaza to discuss the #Russia-#Ukraine conflict, #US-#China relations, and even #crypto! And most importantly, we discuss Max's new book which is out today! Watch now ⤵️

https://t.co/OXD7cOpSfP

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 Tensions are on the rise in the #Arctic, driven by climate change, military expansion, resources, and trade:
https://t.co/VAWgHBW6P4

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

We sat down with @intintrigue's John Fowler (@johnsnonsense) last week to discuss recent US-China developments, the war in Ukraine, Macron's desire to attend the upcoming #BRICS Summit, and the future of the #EU. Watch ⤵️
https://t.co/0fwstECzKO

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 How Diplomats Get Away with Murder: What is Diplomatic Immunity? https://t.co/N4CC70ASi6 #geopolitics #diplomats #diplomacy #diplomaticimmunity #AnneSacoolas #HarryDunn

[Andrew Eaddy @AndrewJEaddy]

Our team @GeovaneVideo did a morning-after recap of the #election in #Turkey. Let us know if you want to here us talk about the upcoming elections in Greece as well! Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics heating up

https://t.co/aZ4ihy9SAx

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🆕 What Happened to #ISIS?: The Rise and Fall of ISIS https://t.co/lHGNDd1hEq #geopolitics #waronterror #MiddleEast

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

🇺🇦 A stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems likely in the near term, potentially resulting in a "forever war" or frozen conflict, marginally favoring Russia. Such conflicts have been used by Russia before.

📺 Full video: https://t.co/gn0ABPQ2cQ

🇷🇺 Recent events in Afghanistan show how war weariness can affect Western support. If the Ukraine conflict becomes a stalemate, Western political and military support may wane, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand.

🇺🇸 Economic and political instability could expedite this process. Ukraine also faces the possibility of a less supportive US president after the 2024 election, impacting the conflict's dynamics.

⚠️ A stalemate in Ukraine raises the risk of the war escalating beyond its borders, causing even greater instability in the region. The international community must stay vigilant to prevent further escalation.
#Ukraine #Russia #RussiaUkraine #stalemate #geopolitics #GeoVane

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

Soon™

[The Long Telegram @LongTelegramFM]

🧵

[CIT (en) @CITeam_en]

More information on this order, which we have seen and studied.

Military district commands are ordered to create tank and motorized rifle reserve battalions on the basis of each regiment and brigade.

Some will employ older vehicles, for example BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles.

[Sabine Fischer @SabFis3]

The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.

To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)

#RussiainvadesUkraine