Antonio Paños

Concentrated energy & macro | Asymmetric, catalyst-driven | ~105% CAGR/ +10000% since 2020

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@privatetrader07 I will said that on a normal scenario, but on the current geopolitical climate, $TLW is asymetric

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

Tullow Oil trades like it's about to go bankrupt.

It's not.

They just refinanced their debt. The Jubilee field produces near 95,000 barrels a day. Brent is rising for reasons that won't disappear in 6 months.

The market is afraid. Fear creates price. Price creates opportunity.

There are two types of investors: those who buy when everyone wants to buy, and those who buy when nobody wants to.

The first ones pay the price of comfort.
The second ones collect the price of someone else's fear.

You decide which one you are.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@privatetrader07 Agree WI at Jubilee is the main thesis risk

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

What I'm looking at is that with the 4D seismic data, the company can recover production of 55kboe in the medium term, which would bring FCF of over $500 million vs current 300 Million Marketcap... And in that scenario, the cost of debt drops dramatically. So I think the company is deeply undervalued.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

He said net debt didn't fall in H1.
True. It ticked up slightly, to $1.4bn.
What they don't say: $68M of that was the toll for a refinancing that avoided a May default. Paid once. Doesn't come back.

Capex was front-loaded too: $131M of the $200M full-year budget. Drilling's mostly done. H2 carries less weight.

In 2025, with everything against them weak price, receivables stuck net debt still fell $99M. And that was the easy year, selling assets.
Buying the TEN FPSO kills the lease from 2027. Structural savings, every year after.

And H1 production 43.7k is already clean of Gabon (10,000 bopd). Sold a year ago. What you're seeing is new wells, not portfolio makeup.
H2 could average ~5,000 bopd higher. And for 2027, there's still spare capacity on the Jubilee FPSO and even more on TEN, where they hold more than half the asset.

Net debt went from $2.81bn to $1.4bn.
They could still sell down a small stake in Jubilee or TEN and cut debt further.
$TLW

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Javier's numbers are correct but why are we now pretending *any* flow thru Hormuz is some kind of surplus? We're through the looking glass if this is how people are thinking about this crisis. Even with pipeline offsets and dark transits hormuz exports are down 10 mbpd vs prewar!

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

En la fiebre del Oro el que más ganaba era el que vendía la pala. En la fiebre de la IA; el que más ganará, a partir de ahora, será el que venda Energía.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@GavMcCracken They did not achieve to came over 5000 Barrels in 4 years, although many millions were on the ground. So look at decline rates

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

El mercado no te paga por tener razón. Te paga por tenerla antes que los demás.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@mintzmyer Based on these results, $TLW is set to outperform $KOS.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@mintzmyer Based on these results, $TLW is set to outperform $KOS.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

3/4El resto, cientos de millones en acero tomando el sol.
Y el mercado la entierra. La precia como si estuviera exprimida hasta la última gota.Exprimida.
Con 55.000 barriles diarios de capacidad propia vacía. Esperando.
No hay que construir nada. La pista está asfaltada.Y pagada

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

1/3 Hay una cuenta que el mercado prefiere no hacer.
La hago yo.
Tullow tiene dos barcos en Ghana. Dos plantas flotantes que procesan crudo. Entre las dos, capacidad para 200.000 barriles al día.
Tullow no usa ni la mitad.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

2/3Y mejora.
Porque no es dueña de todo. Comparte con Kosmos y con el Estado. De esos barcos, a ella le corresponden netos unos 91.000 barriles diarios.
¿Cuántos produce?
36.000.
El 40%. Cuatro de cada diez.
El FPSO de TEN da risa. Le pertenecen 44.000 barriles netos.Bombea 8000

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

Valía £15.000M en 2012. Hoy £230M.
El mercado entierra a Tullow. Sobrevivió a su deuda, tiene Ghana hasta 2040, y su CEO habla de $2.000M.
Abajo: £230M.
Arriba: una opción desnuda sobre el crudo.
Asimetría pura. No para viudas $TLW

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@mtbert Time for buybacks?

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@CernunnosCap @investingwithac @mtbert @StockStormX @LastRonin1979 You don’t need Hims supplements. Get out in the sun, ride your bike hard, and eat a proper beef steak. That’s real testosterone. That’s real health. That’s the old-school way.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@CernunnosCap @mtbert @investingwithac @StockStormX @LastRonin1979 That’s like comparing a bicycle to a Ferrari.

[Antonio Paños @lordcoal1]

@Edyy55 @mtbert @mariots How many baggers has Schlosser achieved so far? Maybe it is a family decisión. If Bertolini meets the guidance, I’m happy with his compensation. His track record is excellent.