flow

Cross-asset manager | Option trader

[based16z @based16z]

Mark Walter basically showed the private credit Ponzi game is ending

People finally admitting AI doesn't drive productivity or GDP growth

Dario Amodei is becoming the most hated man in America, and his last ditch effort was to claim he could solve cancer. Then we solved cancer without him.

US30y complete retrace of yield curve control attempt

Thiel hiding out in Argentina

Different game developing

[flow @lordflow_]

We all should organise to break the 30Y bonds and be like Soros

We all would win

right?

[flow @lordflow_]

Guys, I don't think bidding up old-economy names growing 5% a year to drag $RSP to all-time highs is the solution to your problems.

chill a bit

[flow @lordflow_]

Now this bid in the 30Y is kind of worrisome.

Could be a shift in investors heads, where they start preferring that yield over equity risk.

[flow @lordflow_]

I think the market is screaming to go up.

But Iran is holding it down.

Imagine if Iran magically gets resolved…

Would not bet against AI right now.

[flow @lordflow_]

We are back to the old days where :

$SOXX ⬇️— $IGV ⬆️

A tale as old as time

[flow @lordflow_]

This is how the yield curve looked at the top of the dot com bubble before the colapse.

The market was expecting a deceleration in growth.

Nothing like what we see today.

If the AI bubble is starting to colapse, we should see 30Y yield going down not up.

[flow @lordflow_]

US treasury yield curve is pricing growth ahead.

Nothing wrong with that.

And in the short term, the treasury can continue to finance itself through short term debt at a lower rate.

[flow @lordflow_]

US treasury yield curve is pricing growth ahead.

Nothing wrong with that.

And in the short term, the treasury can continue to finance itself through short term debt at a lower rate.

[flow @lordflow_]

I don’t really get the overnight panic over US treasuries.

The curve is steepening. Nothing wrong with that. Signaling growth ahead.

Nothing happens on 30 year yield at 5.3%.

[flow @lordflow_]

$INTC is the maximum expression of the paradigm shift we’re living through:

private sector and government intersecting to build the nation’s future.
Intel isn’t a chip stock anymore. It’s national infrastructure.

The national champion will keep outperforming.

[flow @lordflow_]

Not all semis are built equal

[flow @lordflow_]

We are going now through a much healthier phase of the AI bull market.

$SOXX is up but not all semis are fully correlated. Now you need to be a stock picker inside the semi land.

I don’t think we already toped, just now we need to be more selective

[flow @lordflow_]

I think the AI bubble will be much bigger than the internet.

Is imperative that America inflates this bubble as much as it can as the future of America’s supremacy depends on it.

[flow @lordflow_]

Tbh, I think that AI is still the safest trade out there.

The theme of our lifetime is here to stay and the deep cooperation we are seeing between the private sector and the government, is a paradigm shift that some people is underestimating.

This puts up a backstop on the AI trade as it is national security for it to succeed.

[flow @lordflow_]

Tbh, I think that AI is still the safest trade out there.

The theme of our lifetime is here to stay and the deep cooperation we are seeing between the private sector and the government, is a paradigm shift that some people is underestimating.

This puts up a backstop on the AI trade as it is national security for it to succeed.

[flow @lordflow_]

@holeyprofit Honestly it’d be better if we didn’t have Bessent in here suppressing vol and scaring traders off these supposedly ‘destabilising’ trades

[flow @lordflow_]

The index resilience is brutal

I think burry is right. I don’t know when will it happen, but the market is not behaving in a healthy manner.

This only ends one way.

[flow @lordflow_]

Trump is out of his own script saying things that are real but bring oil prices up

[flow @lordflow_]

I love the asymmetry of options in "non-volatile" stocks.

Is the most under appreciated setup

[flow @lordflow_]

guys...

$LMT