SpaceX IPO and 2 other giant ai IPO this year will force passive ETFs to sell off existing mega seven tech companies, thus driving down their share prices.
Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say:
8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares.
Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO...
Don't think there's been any historical precedence like this yet?
@aleabitoreddit The old dollar flywheel was Treasuries. The new one might be tech giants like SpaceX. What do you think? 🤔
When the entire world has to buy US dollars before they can buy the most hyped company ever
We’re watching capital get sucked into the US at escape velocity
@aleabitoreddit@cats_crypto I was one of the “idots” lately, 😂 . I was attracted to two of those WhatsApp accounts. Then after thoughts I realized those were scams, and immediately blocked/ deleted them.
So to be responsible, I would not recommend people to invest in never China stocks and China concepts on the US markets. Not bc there are no good companies in China, but the cheat Chinese culture: In Chinese corporate culture, if you are 51% shareholder, you are quasi-entitled to bagging and transferring 100% of the listed company’s profit via miscellaneous transfer pricing schedules if not direct fund misappropriation.
@aleabitoreddit Stock performance in China is meaningless. Just check the growth of Shanghai Stock Exchange index from year 2000 to 2026: essentially no more than 2X or 3X. Chinese stocks always siphone / suck retail investors! The controlling shareholders bag corporate profits easily. Period.
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.
Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:
- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)
- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).
- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.
It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.
If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.
But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)
With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.
Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.
With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.
With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.
There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
Names to buy on today’s dip:
$AAOI
$FLNC
$SIVE
$NBIS
$SNDK
$XFAB
$DRAM
$NVTS
The sell off today seems like an over reaction.
Good time to add to ur positions 🙌
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.
Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?
There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…
Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.
I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.
So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…
Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.
Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?
Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…
Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
Last time $SPY broke under 20SMA it crashed from $700 to $630.
Today, it broke it again for 1st time in 4 months. It can break under $700 very soon.
Everything is ON SALE, make sure to buy at key levels:
1. $728-$730 previous area of consolidation and institutional buy zone
2. $715 (50SMA) massive demand zone and bounce area
3. $697-$700 hard support and powerful demand and consolidation
4. $640-$670 hard breakaway gap area to fill
I warned you a sell off was coming leading up to June 17 FOMC with Kevin Warsh. Don't be scared its time to buy the dips!
♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share when everything will unfold with you right now.
$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.
My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.
Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.
Is just one step of the way.