Leeze Gudymenko

Lawyer, interests in rule of law, democracy, int’l relations, and more. RT not endorsements

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@fordnation Please ENFORCE highway speed limits in Ontario. Apparently ~20% or ~30% of drivers on highways in GTA are driving at >120 km/h.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@aleabitoreddit @grok what is “openAI contagion” in the post?

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

SpaceX IPO and 2 other giant ai IPO this year will force passive ETFs to sell off existing mega seven tech companies, thus driving down their share prices.

[Alex @TickerSymbolYOU]

I got rich off $NVDA. Here's how I'm investing around the SpaceX IPO:

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say:

8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares.

Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO...

Don't think there's been any historical precedence like this yet?

[Moonlight🌙月光 @Moon1ightSt]

@aleabitoreddit The old dollar flywheel was Treasuries. The new one might be tech giants like SpaceX. What do you think? 🤔

When the entire world has to buy US dollars before they can buy the most hyped company ever

We’re watching capital get sucked into the US at escape velocity

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@aleabitoreddit @cats_crypto I was one of the “idots” lately, 😂 . I was attracted to two of those WhatsApp accounts. Then after thoughts I realized those were scams, and immediately blocked/ deleted them.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@XXY177 大陆股市中只有两类人可以稳赚：第一是大股东，这实际上是最大的“庄家”。第二是做庄的大资金。其他人全部是陪玩韭菜。这个判断准确性超过95%

[Art of Speculation @ArtofSpecuycky]

今日美股总结：今天跌到7238，我认为这是本周的底，但下周还会给机会上车

先说今天发生了什么
纳指盘中最深跌了4%，标普一度跌2.3%。然后午后抄底资金涌入，大幅收复失地，标普最终只收跌0.61%，纳指收跌0.97%，留下了一根长下影线。
VIX盘中冲到23，收盘重新回落到20以下。
我的判断：今天纳指7238点的低点，大概率就是本周的短期底部，短暂反弹后下周还会给机会上车。

为什么不用过度恐慌？
这次调整的性质是什么？不是AI逻辑崩了，不是基本面出了问题，是高位正常的获利了结加上几个事情撞在一起：SpaceX上市前的流动性虹吸、非农数据超预期引发加息担忧、地缘政治扰动。
拿个数据对比一下就清楚了。
纳指100从今年1月28号到3月30号，跌了12.8%，花了整整两个月。
这次从6月3号跌到6月9号，跌了8.4%，只花了6个交易日。
这就是典型的空间换时间，跌的幅度相对有限，但速度很快，主要是因为杠杆账户的被迫平仓加上SpaceX的流动性抽血，放大了跌幅。
这种快速下杀通常不会持续太久，因为下跌动能会很快耗尽。

今天盘面板块在轮动
这是今天最重要的信号。
科技股和半导体在跌，但罗素2000小盘股逆势上涨0.23%，房地产、金融、材料、必需消费品、公共事业、工业板块全线大涨，整个市场涨跌家数比是3500比2800。
资金没有离开美股，只是从前期涨了很多的科技股里出来，换到了估值更便宜的地方。
这不是熊市信号，是健康轮动。

为什么今天跌了这么狠
三个原因撞在一起
第一，特朗普发推特说一架阿帕奇直升机在霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗击落，并说美国必须做出回应。
第二，SpaceX这次IPO申购达到了4倍超额认购，也就是说750亿的发行规模吸引了超过2500亿美元在场边排队。机构为了给配售腾出空间，必须卖掉前期涨得最多的科技股和半导体。这个抽血效应这几天一直在压着市场。
第三，日本这个月释放加息信号，预计今年10月份还有一次加息。
这三件事是短期的流动性和情绪扰动。

基本面实际上非常强劲
标普500成分股目前实现了29%的利润增长和11.4%的营收增长，大幅超出预期。
更重要的是，标普的Forward PE现在在20.4倍，刚好在过去5年平均值20倍附近。
这是合理估值配合强劲基本面，没有什么泡沫。短期是因为财报季结束没什么别的利好，受宏观环境影响造成的波动。
在这种情况下，每一次由宏观情绪驱动的下跌，都是白送的买点。

技术面怎么看
看图（图1，随便画画，大概是那么个意思）
今天SPY在1小时图上留下了一根很长的下影线，RSI出现了底背离，Stoch RSI从超卖区域快速反弹。这些都是短期筑底的信号。
下一个阻力位在741附近，这是下跌趋势线的第三次接触点。如果明天CPI数据符合预期或略低于预期，反弹先看741，然后是之前说的这周上限745。
下周要观察的是：会不会创出比今天724更低的lower low，还是higher low。如果higher low，看二次探底到730到731。如果lower low，看710。

明天CPI是关键，但预期已经被抬得很高了
目前市场对CPI的悲观预期已经相当充分。
两家大行给出了不同的预测：摩根大通预计整体CPI环比0.58%，核心CPI环比0.27%；高盛更乐观，预计核心CPI只有0.17%，因为住房通胀可能大幅回落。
关键是只要数据符合预期或者略低于预期，空头回补就会发生，大盘会接着反弹。
这种情况下，预期越悲观，利空出尽的反弹反而越猛。
期权市场定价了明天约1.7%的单日波动，隐含波动率已经很高了。如果数据没有炸，IV暴跌会触发做市商的机械性买入，那才是真正的右侧入场窗口。

短期6月份不会立马V型反转，但也不会跌很多
这是我现在的核心判断。
直接V回7600前高不现实，因为下周还有日本央行放风6月可能加息到0.75%到1%，以及6月17日美联储主席第一次主持FOMC会议，这两件事都是不确定性。
但大幅下跌的概率也不高，因为基本面太强了，而且SpaceX上市之后流动性会重新释放出来，OpenAI IPO预计在9月，在那之前市场有充分的动力再创新高。
JP Morgan的建议也是接下来两周分批逢低建仓，跟我的想法差不多，稳健的可以等这周五spacex ipo后或者是下周日本央行加息后，美联储会议前（我不觉得沃什是鹰派，如果市场提前给出悲观预期，那大概率是买入信号。）
这波调整大概率6月底之前基本就结束了。

几个值得关注的个股
英伟达今天盘中跌穿200美元整数关口又被拉回来。过去一年它在180到208之间横盘，但同期利润增长了70%到80%，估值倍数被动压缩了很多。这是非常健康的业绩填平估值。
ServiceNow今天跟跌了6%。100美元附近的ServiceNow，对于相信AI商业化会继续加速的人来说是一个不错的位置。
Applied Digital今天签了一笔15年、52亿美元的算力租赁大单，虽然盘中冲高回落，但订单质量很高，这类有长期合同锁定收入的AI基础设施公司，在当前环境里反而会比较抗跌。
Oracle今天盘后财报。周三盘后Oracle出财报，期权市场定价了±12%的波动。如果数据好，会给整个软件板块打一针强心针。OpenAI开始推进IPO这件事也给甲骨文的信贷风险提供了背书。这是明天值得关注的催化剂。Openai 预计9月份上市，Oracle相关股9月份前可以关注。

最后说几句心里话
如果你这一周跌了很多，很难受，我完全理解。
但你得想清楚一个问题，你当初买入这些公司的理由，有任何一条被今天的数据证伪了吗？AI的资本开支还在增加吗？是的。巨头们的财报还在超预期吗？是的。算力还在短缺吗？黄仁勋昨天刚说SK海力士把产能翻倍都不够用。
这些没有变。变的只是短期的情绪和流动性，而情绪和流动性是会恢复的。
恐慌贪婪指数现在在恐慌区间。历史一次次告诉我们，这个时候买入的人，一年后往往是最舒服的那一批。
分批买，不要一次性押注，但也不要因为恐慌什么都不做。别人在抢筹码的时候，你要想清楚自己站在哪一边。

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

So to be responsible, I would not recommend people to invest in never China stocks and China concepts on the US markets. Not bc there are no good companies in China, but the cheat Chinese culture: In Chinese corporate culture, if you are 51% shareholder, you are quasi-entitled to bagging and transferring 100% of the listed company’s profit via miscellaneous transfer pricing schedules if not direct fund misappropriation.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@aleabitoreddit Stock performance in China is meaningless. Just check the growth of Shanghai Stock Exchange index from year 2000 to 2026: essentially no more than 2X or 3X. Chinese stocks always siphone / suck retail investors! The controlling shareholders bag corporate profits easily. Period.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.

Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:

- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)

- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).

- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.

It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.

If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.

But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)

With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.

Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.

With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.

With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.

There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.

[Dominic Rinaldi @DominicRinaldi9]

Those who are patient and continue to invest in @Tesla and @elonmusk will be rewarded exponentially!! So many catalysts on the horizon

[TW @TW_trades_]

Names to buy on today’s dip:

$AAOI
$FLNC
$SIVE
$NBIS
$SNDK
$XFAB
$DRAM
$NVTS

The sell off today seems like an over reaction.

Good time to add to ur positions 🙌

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.

Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?

There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…

Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.

I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.

So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…

Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.

Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?

Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…

Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@itsmichaelluu The market to watch out

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

Last time $SPY broke under 20SMA it crashed from $700 to $630.

Today, it broke it again for 1st time in 4 months. It can break under $700 very soon.

Everything is ON SALE, make sure to buy at key levels:

1. $728-$730 previous area of consolidation and institutional buy zone

2. $715 (50SMA) massive demand zone and bounce area

3. $697-$700 hard support and powerful demand and consolidation

4. $640-$670 hard breakaway gap area to fill

I warned you a sell off was coming leading up to June 17 FOMC with Kevin Warsh. Don't be scared its time to buy the dips!

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share when everything will unfold with you right now.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@aleabitoreddit Is there a way to buy these Taiwan stocks on US market?

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@itsmichaelluu What is your play for $ORCL. Thanks

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

股票投资大咖Serenity仍认为$SIVE有10x-20X潜力。$SIVE今天跳涨超50%。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.

My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.

Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.

Is just one step of the way.

[Leeze Gudymenko @lorenz_kw]

@seni0re @WealthyReadings @grok @Grok what is he talking about?