luchin

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@TeCLaro Será que se da la estacionalidad? O lograran mantener el momentum.

Esperaremos con paciencia

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@mondra723 Bien interesante hoy!

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@mondra723 El movimiento de hoy fue interesante, semis quietos, mags subiendo, aunque para mí, creo que no es suficiente.
A esta historia le falta un pedazo

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@HyenukChu Yo comencé el mes haciendo swing y terminé haciendo daytrading, un buen mes.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@mondra723 Así es el FOMO y la locura colectiva, después vienen los fracasos. Según hasta hipotecan las casas para comprar productos apalancados en dos activos 😅😅

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@CarlosZinver Está en promo!

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@HyenukChu Por fin parece que hay tendencia.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@Mariellangsaez B.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@EnLineaBVC Para $NU pienso más en la estructura, (acumulación ) de cara a las elecciones de medio termino en USA.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@EnLineaBVC El volumen a veces confunde, más de lo que aclara, en este caso, para mí, confunde

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@mondra723 Porque positivo es +1%, como lo es 100% eso cambia mucho el enfoque

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@mondra723 El hecho de que no pierdas, es una cosa; ahora cuan grande es el retorno positivo, es otra muy diferente, yo me voy por la segunda, aspiro a tener retornos un poco más grande que los índices, sino mi gestión no habrá valido la pena.

cuán positivos son esos retornos?

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

When good setups don't work, the answer isn't to try to trade the bad ones.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

The Market Has Already Moved On

A leadership change is already
underway, but most investors are still clinging to the last trade. Everyone is crowded into semiconductors and memory, propped up by passive flows and a sell-side still extrapolating an era of outsized earnings surprises that is now behind us. The big earnings revision cycle in semiconductors and AI power is over.

The bottleneck trade is crowded and over-owned, and that playbook is exhausted. Semis now represent 20% of the S&P 500. A period of digestion is needed.

The market is broadening. Beneath the surface, the median stock is delivering double-digit earnings growth, with second-quarter earnings tracking toward 25% year-over-year. This is a rolling recovery, not a narrow AI story.

The AI cycle is not over, but it is evolving. Hyperscalers may be near a bottom and are beginning to convert capex into revenue, extending the cycle. But the bottleneck trade, owning semiconductors and AI Power, is no longer sufficient.

The era of massive upside earnings surprises is over IMHO

These stocks are crowded, expectations are elevated, and future earnings beats are unlikely to surprise as they have.

Leadership is rotating. Equal-weight indices, small caps, and domestic cyclicals are gaining traction, supported by improving earnings and still-muted positioning. Policy is reinforcing the shift, with a more Hamiltonian focus on domestic investment and productive capital.
Liquidity is also changing. Credit creation is moving from the Fed to the private sector, with bank deregulation playing a key role.

This is a more selective regime.
Investors can wait, or adapt. The market has already decided.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

As we noted back on June 17, one of the historically weakest times of the year was here.

The S&P 500 is currently down 5 days in a row and lower 7 of 8 days.

Is this really a surprise?

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 is down close to 3% in June currently.

We are still firmly in the June swoon period and historically June in a midterm year is quite weak. The good news is July has been strong.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

You can always tell an amateur who lacks long term market experience by four simple words. They say "it's different this time." No, it's not!
Other than technology speeding things up and making market access more readily available, virtually nothing has changed other than the names.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@HyenukChu @Cholu3 Las probabilidades son diferentes al no tener todas las operaciones en un solo sector.

Ahora tambien te puede preguntar, porque 5 operaciones y no 1 o 2?

A veces el mejor trade, es ko hacer nada

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@HyenukChu @Cholu3 Mira tus probabilidades, esas se cumplen, una buena pregunta para hacer es, cual de estas 5 operaciones abiertas se ira a profit?.. Otro factor es la correlacion de los activos, si tienes 5 operaciones en el mismo sector o sentido, es como una sola operación.

[luchin @luisalbeiro]

@HyenukChu 🤣🤣