m4arpa

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@phongle Still not humble. Still not learning.

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@phongle @BitcoinPierre oooff!
@phongle is short #bitcoin

[Simon Gerovich @gerovich]

アラン・グリーンスパン氏が100歳で逝去した。

FRB議長を約19年にわたり務め、「マエストロ」と称された、現代において最も影響力のある中央銀行家の一人だった。だが、若き経済学者だった頃の彼は、健全通貨（サウンドマネー）の擁護者だった。1966年の論考「金と経済的自由」より：

「財政赤字とは、富を没収するための仕組みにほかならない。金はこの陰湿な過程の前に立ちはだかる。金は財産権の守護者として存在する。」

「金本位制が存在しなければ、インフレによる没収から貯蓄を守る術はない。安全な価値の保存手段は存在しない。もし存在するなら、政府はその保有を違法とせざるを得ないだろう。かつて金がそうされたように。」

彼はその弊害を1966年に正確に診断していた。そしてその後19年にわたりFRBを率い、自らが警告したまさにその政策を体現することとなった。

皮肉なことに、若き日の彼が描いた「あまりに確実であるがゆえに、政府が違法化せざるを得ない価値の保存手段」は、いま現実に存在する。かつて金がそうされたように没収することは、もはやできない。今回、それはビットコインだ。

心よりご冥福をお祈りいたします。

[One Chair @OneChairPod]

Most people still think Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF is just "Japan's" $MSTR.

They're missing the bigger picture.

Metaplanet isn't copying Strategy.

It's building a global Bitcoin capital machine that could become impossible to compete with.

In this conversation with @TheBTCPharaoh, we discuss:
• Why Metaplanet's strategy is fundamentally different
• The hidden advantage of operating in Japan
• What $STRC and $SATA taught every Bitcoin treasury
• Why cash-flow businesses may be the next evolution of Bitcoin treasury companies
• Why Strive $ASST is emerging as a serious contender
• What Metaplanet could become in a Bitcoin standard

00:00 Introduction: The BTCPharaoh's Bitcoin Journey
07:09 Why Metaplanet Is Different From Every Other Bitcoin Treasury
11:03 Mercury & Mars: The Next Bitcoin Financial Products?
11:52 What Metaplanet Learned From Strategy's STRC Depeg
15:26 Will Bitcoin Preferred Shares Become Truly Stable?
19:05 Is Metaplanet About to Launch a U.S. Preferred Stock?
20:57 Why Japan Gives Metaplanet a Massive Advantage
22:47 The "Double Carry Trade" That Could Supercharge Bitcoin Buying
26:34 Why Metaplanet Isn't Just Copying Strategy
29:39 Simon Gerovich's Long-Term Vision Is Finally Making Sense
30:12 Will Metaplanet Build Bitcoin Infrastructure Beyond Finance?
32:27 Why the New Board Members Could Change Everything
34:08 Why Less Communication Might Actually Be Bullish
37:56 The One Question He Would Ask Simon Gerovich
39:45 Is NAKA a Hidden Opportunity... or a Value Trap?
45:01 The Most Underrated Bitcoin Treasury Company Right Now
47:55 Europe Could Be the Next Bitcoin Treasury Battleground
48:40 Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bull Market or Bear Market?
50:55 The Biggest Mistake Bitcoin Investors Keep Making
52:19 Where to Follow TheBTCPharaoh

Watch the full episode 👇

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@MarkYusko can we get a digital currents bear market special with Tim Peterson?
@nsquaredvalue @CaneDigital

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

GM! 🧡

YTD @metaplanet tracks 30,533.4 #BTC behind target (177.8 BTC per day in 2026 to reach
100K by EOY).

Approaching end of Q2. Hopefully planet was able to capitalize on recent vol.

@DylanLeClair @gerovich
$MTPLF #bitcoin

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

GM! 🧡

YTD @metaplanet tracks 24,262 #BTC behind target (177.8 BTC per day in 2026 to reach
100K by EOY).

Siiibo was a great step this week!
Looking forward to more M&A puzzle pieces falling into place.

@DylanLeClair @gerovich
$MTPLF #bitcoin

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@nithusezni @HermesLux @jonnypokerasia 😂

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@hillery_dan You make it sound like a ponzi.

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@phongle Humility 😂😂😂

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@Z06Z07 @JoshMandell6 @AdamBLiv Duh. Bear market.

[Andy Edstrom @edstromandrew]

If I have time I will write up a more fully-formed view on BTC and related situation, I will. For now, a few thoughts.

Saylor is doing what he said he would. He's creating and managing a complexifying capital structure around Bitcoin.

Because it involves leverage and various corporate and governance and other risks, it offers both (1) greater risk of loss of investment and (2) greater potential returns than just holding spot BTC exposure. Reasonable debates can be had about the risks embedded in the "digital credit" portions of the capital structure.

This "strategy" looks great in a Bitcoin bull market but scary in a bear market. Also since it involves paying cash dollars and because people get greedy and add their own leverage to its leverage, it feeds back into the dynamics of the bear market itself. It's Soros' reflexivity at play.

Also there appear to be actions behind the scenes to shore up the newest iteration of the dollar-based global monetary system. Matt Dines can tell you more about that.

And of course Warsh is "playing tough" out of the gate. Only time will reveal his actions.

Right now BTC/USD is "desperately trying" to hold above the 50-week moving average.

That involves more retesting of the same area in the low $60ks.

It's the same as the last 2 bear cycles I lived through.

In 2018 that level was $6k. In 2022 it was around $19k.

Unfortunately, history of these cycles doesn't suggest that the bottom is in yet.

In 2018 and 2022 there was a final capitulation about a year after the peak and two and a half years after the halving.

Will that happen here in 2026?

I have to say greater than 70% chance that the bottom is NOT yet in for this year. I should probably think harder about a target price. In my Feb 28 Bitcoin market update post I wrote 33% chance of 4-handle BTC (i.e. breaking below $50k). Earlier this month I offhandedly put that $50k probability at 20% in a reply tweet. But that was probably premature/optimistic. Here/now I reiterate my Feb 28 view of 33% chance that price gets below $50k.

The last two times we hit $60k, I observed that it would make sense for anyone who is currently under-allocated on BTC to buy those levels.

But the corollary is that it probably wasn't yet time to "get greedy" or "back up the truck" for anyone who already has a reasonable allocation. I haven't "backed up the truck". Maybe I'll miss the chance. That's fine for me because I have been making money in somewhat-diversified basket of other assets in the meantime.

Long-term Bitcoin DCA still makes sense to me since the same dollars buy more coins when dollar price is lower.

In bear markets hodler conviction gets tested over and over. Many are taking hard looks in the mirror. Others are dodging hard looks from their spouses. Same as it ever was. All the best to all of you.

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@Z06Z07 @Strategy That’s like throwing out all metrics and just dilute until there no tomorrow. Firesale.
I doubt that would support $STRC but also erode trust toward $MSTR. Big dump.

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@AP_Abacus TINA

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@saylor @phongle How is your trade going?

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@saylor poked the market.
Market pokes $mstr.

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

GM! 🧡

#bitcoin twitter is crashing put about prefs.
I hope @metaplanet is paying close attention.

@DylanLeClair @gerovich
$MTPLF #bitcoin

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@hillery_dan @apsk32 I thought $STRC fixes this?

[m4arpa @m4arpa]

@MarkYusko @mtsocks Awesome. Looking forward to it.

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

@Kakasi555B Maybe sooner

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

With Pending Acquisition of Siiibo Securities, Metaplanet Poised to Bring Bitcoin Yield to Japanese Households; Would Represent First Step in Plan to Create of Bitcoin-Centric Ecosystem in Japan - Benchmark Equity Research