M44

[Steve Place @stevenplace]

When 0DTE volume hits a new record high

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

I think about this probably way too often…

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Jeff Bezos: "We don't have a revenue problem in this country. We already have the most progressive tax system in the world.”

“The Top 1% of taxpayers pay 40% of all taxes.”

“The bottom 50% pay just 3%. We have a spending problem."

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

“Let me get this straight, you’re lending billions with cheese as collateral?”

“Not cheese. Parmesan. Parmigiano-Reggiano to be precise.“

“So, you finance this by packaging the Parmesan loans into Parmesan CDO A, which has part of Parmesan CDO B and both get put into Parmesan CDO C?”

“Yeah. The original loans are backed by wheels of Parmesan. Minimum age of 12 months. Some are 24 months. 36 months. 48 month. Hell, up to 120 months. Delicious. Millions of wheels. But Parmesan CDO C is a synthetic Parmesan CDO. A CDO of Parmesan CDOs. Parmesan Squared if you will.”

“What if it gets too hot in the summer and the wheels of Parmesan melt?”

“We’ll sell Parmesan credit default swaps.”

“C’mon! How much bigger is the market for Parmesan-backed sythentic loan and CDS products than actual edible real-life Parmesan that I can grate on top of my homemade spaghetti bolognese tonight?”

“At least 10,000x.”

“Ok, let’s say we have an underlying pool of $10 million in Parmesan wheels. How much money could be out there betting on your synthetic Parmesan financial products?”

“Probably $100 billion.”

“That is fucking crazy.”

“No, it’s awesome.”

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$NVDA - NVIDIA IS DEVELOPING A NEW NEMOTRON 4 OPEN-SOURCE AI MODEL - THE INFORMATION

MULTIPLE NVIDIA EMPLOYEES WORKING ON NEMOTRON SAID THEY EXPECT THE BIGGEST NEMOTRON 4 MODEL TO HAVE AT LEAST A TRILLION PARAMETERS - THE INFORMATION

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. AIR TRAVEL COULD DOUBLE IN 20 YEARS

The FAA expects annual U.S. air passenger traffic to double from 1 billion to 2 billion over the next 20 years.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said officials are working to fix telecom issues identified after the recent Marine One incident.

Meanwhile, the Transportation Department still plans to release a show covering Duffy’s American road trip despite complaints from Democratic senators.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Claude will now invisibly watermark AI-generated text so it can be detected after being copied & pasted.

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

In American history, there have been only 4 market sells offs of 50% or more .

1929– 89% drawdown. Which took 25 years to recover .

2007- 50% sell off. 6 years to recover .

2000– 54% sell off. Which took 13 years to recover.

1974– 52%. 7 years to recover,

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Cheat code:

Buy when the VIX is above 30.
Trim when it’s below 15.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Berkshire Hathaway was a buyer of stocks last quarter for first time in 3 years

[Pavel | Robuxio @PKycek]

Simple but robust:

Buy: C > 200-day H
Cover: C < 100-day L

10% base position. Volatility targeting.

[Tigerflow @tigerfl0w]

A hedge fund returned 50% a year for ten years straight. In 2005 the man who ran it sat on a desk at Columbia and taught the entire method to 30 students for free. No bank, no fund, no business school has ever promoted the recording.

His name is Joel Greenblatt. He ran Gotham Capital from 1985 to 1994. Almost nobody sustains 50% annually for a single year. He did it for ten. Then in 1995 he returned all outside capital, kept running his own money, and walked into a classroom.

The first lecture is about corners of the market where the usual buyers are structurally forced to sell regardless of price. Spinoffs, restructurings, situations where an index fund must dump a stock the day it leaves the index. He does not teach a screener or a formula. He teaches why these corners exist at all, and why they keep existing after everybody knows about them.

The uncomfortable part is what he says about diversification. He held very few positions. It runs directly against everything the business school teaches two floors down. Columbia charges $80K a year in tuition. The man upstairs gave away the method for free.

Every screener is free now. Every filing is searchable. The constraint was never information. It was knowing which information to ignore.

Filmed from the back row, audio uneven, students blocking the frame. He gave away 50% a year to a room of 30 people. Almost nobody traded on it.

One classroom. One camera. The full lecture is free. It is in the video.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: $SPCX is down -10% today despite beating on its first ever earnings report.

Revenue came in at $7.8 billion against $6.81 billion expected, up 92% year over year, with Starlink at 12 million subscribers.

The problem was capex.

Spending jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion in one quarter, mostly on AI infrastructure.

The market wants proof this spending turns into profit.

Elon Musk responded by pulling his target forward, saying SpaceX hits $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 instead of 2031.

The stock now trades around $111, below its $135 IPO price. The lockup expires tomorrow, freeing up to 20% of shares.

$AMD fell today for the same reason. The market has stopped paying for AI spending.

[Peter - Cracking Markets @SystematicPeter]

A bearish options system does not have to buy puts.

I am testing a less obvious defined-risk approach using calls:

Selling SPX call verticals when the index is moving lower.

The 2018–2026 backtest path is far better than I expected.

The test uses consolidated SPX BBO mid prices and includes costs.

The biggest unanswered question is execution.

The bot is already built. Next step: paper trading to validate the order logic.

[Oracle @OracleNYSE]

$MSOS

The move benefits hemp-derived THC product makers and could derail the spending agreement

White House lobbying Congress to delay intoxicating hemp ban, provision tucked into spending bill

NYT

[OptionsFlowBoss @OptionsFlowBoss]

$DFTX $2M NOW!

[Oracle @OracleNYSE]

$YSS $SPCX takeover note

Altucher: I believe Elon's preparing to announce a buyout of $YSS alongside today's earnings report

Altucher called the IRDM buyout to the day

[SangLucci™ @sanglucci]

Aaaand who you think this is?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US stocks are cheap despite trading at all time highs.

The S&P 500's forward P/E premium relative to global equities is down to ~22%, the lowest since 2020.

This marks a significant decline from ~50% seen in Q2 2024.

This is also in-line with the levels seen in 2018-2019 and below the 10-year average of 31%.

This comes as US earnings are proving exceptionally strong, with S&P 500 profits currently tracking +28.7% YoY growth.

By comparison, European companies' earnings growth is tracking at +14.4% YoY, or HALF of US levels.

Many US stocks are getting cheaper as they go up.