🟥 #Analysis | Lebanon, Syria, the Mediterranean: Erdogan’s new red lines vis-à-vis Israel
Turkey does not want to be excluded from the new regional balance that will emerge after the war between the United States and Iran.
Read @macaronjoe's analysis below
https://t.co/cXjA5dnS7k
الكاتب والباحث السياسي جو معكرون: استهداف الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت محاولة إسرائيلية لاختبار رد طهران وتحديد مدى عمق وجدية دعمها لحزب الله في هذه المرحلة الدقيقة
#الأخبار
This will not be the first time that Trump announces decisions that might not happen. The ceasefire in #Lebanon remains fragile and there is no US policy in Lebanon beyond making sure it does not disrupt negotiations with Iran.
Read our latest Analysis by @macaronjoe on "A Contest Between Negotiation and the Battlefield: Redefining Lebanon’s Rules of Engagement with Israel," where he examines how the post-April 16 ceasefire has reshaped the rules of engagement between Lebanon and Israel.
Focusing on Israel’s emerging “Yellow Line” doctrine and Hezbollah’s evolving military tactics, the author explores the growing overlap between battlefield dynamics and diplomacy, arguing that technical deconfliction, not normalization, has become the immediate priority for preventing wider escalation in South Lebanon.
🔗https://t.co/zRDpT7dLqz
Insightful analysis by @macaronjoe: “#Hezbollah remains the central factor shaping relations between Syria and Lebanon.”
Parallel Talks with #Israel are Reshaping #Syria-#Lebanon Relations https://t.co/Dnkpg8iHod
Lebanon and Israel are holding their first direct talks in decades.
But as Israel considers Hezbollah a threat, is a lasting peace agreement possible?
🎧 #InsideStory spoke with @macaronjoe, @YMekelberg and @RamiKhouri: https://t.co/nrLLiztdEq
"Even if Israel were to establish control south of the Litani River, the strategic impact would be limited. Such a zone could reduce short-range threats – particularly anti-tank missiles and infiltration risks – but would not eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to launch medium- and long-range rockets from north of the river and the Bekaa Valley. Israel can reduce the threat at a high cost, particularly against border towns, but it does not fully eliminate it."
In case you missed it, read the latest on our Policy Blog by @macaronjoe on whether Israel can impose a security zone up to the Litani River, via the link below:
https://t.co/4u0bko98EX
"Israel remains tactically superior, with air and intelligence dominance. Hezbollah, however, continues to operate through resilience, decentralization, and sustained fire. As long as it does not collapse and maintains operational continuity, it can complicate any attempt to impose a stable security zone. The conflict is therefore less about territorial control than about the capacity to endure prolonged pressure."
Read the latest on our Policy Blog by @macaronjoe, on whether Israel can impose a security zone up to the Litani River, via the link below: https://t.co/4u0bko98EX
Trump has threatened to destroy a range of Iranian civilian infrastructure and Kharg Island, its key oil export hub, if a deal is not reached ‘shortly’.
Geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron shares his perspective on the latest developments.
Watch more:
https://t.co/H1HrUPS52s
Very helpful @macaronjoe article (in French) on Saudi Arabia’s delicate regional balancing act, between the UAE’s expansionist strategy in Yemen and Sudan and a Saudi desire to limit the kingdom’s involvement in Lebanon, Syria, and containment of Iran. https://t.co/fR3x3kgIlr
“We are witnessing the US is no longer restraining Israel we thought the Gaza ceasefire would restrain Israel in Lebanon but now we see a shift they are reinforcing their role in Syria Gaza and Lebanon … we are seeing a trend,” @macaronjoe#Hezbollah