Joe Macaron

Geopolitical analyst | Middle East & US Affairs | Levant & Eastern Mediterranean. PhD @UniofBath

[Joe Macaron @macaronjoe]

My latest on the high stake talks in Islamabad today #US #Iran
https://t.co/T0Mry17bzC

[L'Orient Today @lorienttoday]

🟥 #Analysis | Lebanon, Syria, the Mediterranean: Erdogan’s new red lines vis-à-vis Israel

Turkey does not want to be excluded from the new regional balance that will emerge after the war between the United States and Iran.

Read @macaronjoe's analysis below
https://t.co/cXjA5dnS7k

[قناة الجزيرة @AJArabic]

الكاتب والباحث السياسي جو معكرون: استهداف الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت محاولة إسرائيلية لاختبار رد طهران وتحديد مدى عمق وجدية دعمها لحزب الله في هذه المرحلة الدقيقة
#الأخبار

[Joe Macaron @macaronjoe]

This will not be the first time that Trump announces decisions that might not happen. The ceasefire in #Lebanon remains fragile and there is no US policy in Lebanon beyond making sure it does not disrupt negotiations with Iran.

[IFI at AUB @ifi_aub]

Read our latest Analysis by @macaronjoe on "A Contest Between Negotiation and the Battlefield: Redefining Lebanon’s Rules of Engagement with Israel," where he examines how the post-April 16 ceasefire has reshaped the rules of engagement between Lebanon and Israel.

Focusing on Israel’s emerging “Yellow Line” doctrine and Hezbollah’s evolving military tactics, the author explores the growing overlap between battlefield dynamics and diplomacy, arguing that technical deconfliction, not normalization, has become the immediate priority for preventing wider escalation in South Lebanon.
🔗https://t.co/zRDpT7dLqz

[Randa Slim @rmslim]

Insightful analysis by @macaronjoe: “#Hezbollah remains the central factor shaping relations between Syria and Lebanon.”
Parallel Talks with #Israel are Reshaping #Syria-#Lebanon Relations https://t.co/Dnkpg8iHod

[L'Orient-Le Jour @LOrientLeJour]

🔎 #Analyse | Accord potentiel entre Washington et Téhéran : un air de déjà-vu sous une nouvelle formule

Par @macaronjoe
https://t.co/9pYU4jE03U

[L'Orient-Le Jour @LOrientLeJour]

🇺🇸 Trump en mode étranglement, l’Iran tient le coup : le blocus maritime est-il efficace ?

@macaronjoe vous explique
https://t.co/nTWasN56KL

[L'Orient-Le Jour @LOrientLeJour]

🔎 #Analyse | Le modèle du Golfe peut-il survivre à la guerre en Iran ?

@macaronjoe fait le point ⤵️
https://t.co/GBicga4MWY

[Al Jazeera English Podcasts @AJEPodcasts]

Lebanon and Israel are holding their first direct talks in decades. 

But as Israel considers Hezbollah a threat, is a lasting peace agreement possible?

🎧 #InsideStory spoke with @macaronjoe, @YMekelberg and @RamiKhouri: https://t.co/nrLLiztdEq

[IFI at AUB @ifi_aub]

"Even if Israel were to establish control south of the Litani River, the strategic impact would be limited. Such a zone could reduce short-range threats – particularly anti-tank missiles and infiltration risks – but would not eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to launch medium- and long-range rockets from north of the river and the Bekaa Valley. Israel can reduce the threat at a high cost, particularly against border towns, but it does not fully eliminate it."

In case you missed it, read the latest on our Policy Blog by @macaronjoe on whether Israel can impose a security zone up to the Litani River, via the link below:
https://t.co/4u0bko98EX

[Al Jadeed News @ALJADEEDNEWS]

جو معكرون: #نتنياهو يستعمل ورقة #لبنان كـ "فيتو" للتفاوض بين أميركا وإيران
@josephinedeeb

[IFI at AUB @ifi_aub]

"Israel remains tactically superior, with air and intelligence dominance. Hezbollah, however, continues to operate through resilience, decentralization, and sustained fire. As long as it does not collapse and maintains operational continuity, it can complicate any attempt to impose a stable security zone. The conflict is therefore less about territorial control than about the capacity to endure prolonged pressure."

Read the latest on our Policy Blog by @macaronjoe, on whether Israel can impose a security zone up to the Litani River, via the link below: https://t.co/4u0bko98EX

[The Newsmakers @The_Newsmakers]

Trump has threatened to destroy a range of Iranian civilian infrastructure and Kharg Island, its key oil export hub, if a deal is not reached ‘shortly’.

Geopolitical analyst Joe Macaron shares his perspective on the latest developments.

Watch more:
https://t.co/H1HrUPS52s

[Al Jadeed News @ALJADEEDNEWS]

#جو_معكرون: حصر السلاح جنوب الليطاني لم يتم بشكل كامل

@rifakil
@macaronjoe

[maya ghandour hert @mayahert]

In Lebanon, the failing cultural state tries to find its way (1/2) https://t.co/T6GSVS7DJ0 via @LOrientToday a must read by @macaronjoe

[تلفزيون عراق 24 HD @IRAQ24HD]

معكرون : على العراق ان يستعد لاي سيناريو في ظل تصاعد الاحداث داخل إيران

جو معكرون - كاتب وباحث سياسي / بيروت

#عراق_24

@macaronjoe

[Zeina Khodr @ZeinakhodrAljaz]

#Lebanon https://t.co/YYmk7gUNrb @macaronjoe “Israel has already shifted focus to phase two “

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

Very helpful @macaronjoe article (in French) on Saudi Arabia’s delicate regional balancing act, between the UAE’s expansionist strategy in Yemen and Sudan and a Saudi desire to limit the kingdom’s involvement in Lebanon, Syria, and containment of Iran. https://t.co/fR3x3kgIlr

[Zeina Khodr @ZeinakhodrAljaz]

“We are witnessing the US is no longer restraining Israel we thought the Gaza ceasefire would restrain Israel in Lebanon but now we see a shift they are reinforcing their role in Syria Gaza and Lebanon … we are seeing a trend,” @macaronjoe #Hezbollah