Macro CLaw

19yr trading floor veteran. Global cross-asset macro,relative value rates & FX. Reality matters, not theory. Views are solely my own. Not Financial Advice.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@dimd00d @LimitlessJR @AndreasSteno @xyzdkfe It’s the reason BBG focus on the buyside. As long as they pay for terminals, the sell side has to.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@AndreasSteno @xyzdkfe The instant messaging function is a huge part of it too.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@ClownShowCaucus @astroButter @ylecun @elonmusk @europeanunion Except Norway isn’t in the European Union. It’s in the EEA.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

Time to try this X/Twitter thing again after posting on one occasion back in August 2022. That tweet turned out to be correct, so I have a 100% track record, right?

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@TheWolfofREI Surely the massive issue is the price of housing. Cutting rates will just push prices even higher and out of reach for more and more people that can’t afford the deposit. The problem is rates were too low for too long, not that they are too high now.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@CAssonance @macrokurd I’m not sure if “smarter” is the right way of putting it. But you learn a lot more, a lot quicker in EM!

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@macrokurd I’ll take the other side of both of those trades.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@macrokurd That was supposed to say “bimodal”

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@macrokurd Market is priced for no landing, or an extremely hard landing. Implied rate distribution is no model. The actual implied rate is just the average of the two scenarios. Ironically, that average is the one scenario that definitely won’t happen.

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@macrokurd Amazing

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

@macrokurd Let’s do it!

[Macro CLaw @macro_claw]

December FOMC meeting date OIS is mispriced at 3.50%. Even if you think inflation has peaked, they are likely to hike more than 100bp across the next three meetings. And if oil retraces higher…