James Morley

Professor of Macroeconomics @Sydney_Uni

[Economic Record @EconomicRecord]

The June issue of the Economic Record (https://t.co/MV7CZp36HQ) is now out — research on civil conflict & trust, Australian nowcasting, retirement savings policy, occupational licensing, and Australian Public Service promotion equity. Plus book reviews. Highlights ↓

[ANU CAMA @CAMacroAnalysis]

Global forces drive r-star 📉
Morley @macromorley & Wong show global shocks drove most of the decline in r-star for 7 advanced open economies since the GFC, but local shocks still matter—leaving a role for tracking domestic r-stars.

🔗 https://t.co/Y807f4vUBm

@ANUCrawford

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

my work calendar completely packed this week

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

The cutest part of the DNC:

Kamala Harris’ nieces teach America how to pronounce her first name as Kerry Washington helps.

I’m sure Trump will continue to disrespect her and say it wrong but oh well. We won’t have to deal with him much longer if you vote!

[ANU CAMA @CAMacroAnalysis]

New CAMA working paper (Vol: 52/2024): ‘How Does Tax and Transfer Progressivity Affect Household Consumption Insurance?’, by Yunho Cho @jnu1906, @macromorley @Sydney_Uni and Aarti Singh @Sydney_Uni.

Read it at: https://t.co/iR7MQlgolm

@ANUCrawford

[Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn]

Sure 13 papers in 2.5 years are impressive, but have you ever had 13 appendices in 1 paper?

[James Morley @macromorley]

For everyone who was at the Dolomiti Macro Meetings, I’m sharing the results for the Norwegian output gap from the BN filter website
https://t.co/6XzWcO2p1A

[Bori Assad H. @AssadBori]

#ASSE2024: "Business cycle: sources of persistent changes in the output gap and unemployment rate", @macromorley of @Sydney_Uni presented the importance of good output gap estimations using trend-cycle decomposition from web-based user friendly tools.
@EnseaO
@BCEAO_Officiel

[ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel @EnseaO]

Le Directeur de l'@EnseaO 🇨🇮, Dr. #Hugues_KOUADIO, a procédé à l'ouverture de l'Université d'été (ASSE) 2024, ce vendredi 31 mai 2024. Il a souhaité à ses hôtes le traditionnel "AKWABA".
@MPD_CI , @econometricsoc ,@ird_fr , @oxmartinschool , @qe_editors,@BCEAO_Officiel

[ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel @EnseaO]

▶️Prof #JAMES_MOLRLEY de @Sydney_Uni a instruit les participants sur le cycle économique avec les sources des changements persistants dans l'écart de production et le taux de chômage.
@MPD_CI , @econometricsoc ,@the_ACEProject ,@oxmartinschool , @ird_fr , @AFD_France

[James Morley @macromorley]

Thank you to @EnseaO for giving me the opportunity to give lectures on trend-cycle decomposition at the Africa Summer School in Econometrics. The group of PhD students from many countries provided brilliant questions and we had fun trying out new series in https://t.co/EXhkUqt6Lr

[ENSEA d'Abidjan Officiel @EnseaO]

Merci au Professeur #JAMES_MORLEY, Expert en Macroéconomie à l'@Sydney_Uni en Australie, pour ce riche partage d'expérience 👍👍👍
@MPD_CI , @the_ACEProject , @ird_fr , @econometricsoc ,

[James Morley @macromorley]

@J_Meanwell The excellent study by Haug and Power on NZ fiscal multipliers with tight or loose monetary policy was also published (open access) in The @EconomicRecord https://t.co/hM1LFwtTy8

[James Morley @macromorley]

Sometimes trend-cycle decompositions are misspecified in the sense that assumed random walk trends display serial correlation in their estimates. In our new JBES article, Ben Wong, Brian TD Tran, and I propose a simple correction for this and estimate r* https://t.co/2M93dTg0Ir

[ANU CAMA @CAMacroAnalysis]

CAMA working paper (Vol: 24/2024): ‘Trend-Cycle Decomposition After COVID’, by Güneş Kamber @IMFNews, @macromorley and Benjamin Wong @MonashUni

Read it at: https://t.co/Yrlq71Nuke

@ANUCrawford

[James Morley @macromorley]

The https://t.co/EXhkUqt6Lr website allows application of the BN filter to any time series using a FRED mnemonic or directly entered into the website. Fully adaptable Matlab or R code also available at https://t.co/SH3y0ysYu3

[James Morley @macromorley]

If you want to conduct trend-cycle decomposition assuming a smooth trend and including Covid-era data, use the BN filter described in our new working paper https://t.co/SGZeG4Rt3q, with online tool available at https://t.co/EXhkUqt6Lr

[James Morley @macromorley]

In our working paper https://t.co/SGZeG4Rt3q, we introduce some refinements to the BN filter that produce a smoother trend, but retain the strong reliability of the original BN filter in our 2018 REStat paper https://t.co/cjWfQedfIX

[James Morley @macromorley]

Wait, aren’t Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen “super-nerds”? This is peak ozpol cultural-cringey anti-intellectualism

[Shane Wright @swrighteconomy]

Former RBA governor Bernie Fraser notes concerns about a special committee of "super-nerds" overseeing interest rate settings.