Ashwin Parameswaran

Writing at

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

@Scholars_Stage pretty good list. Blitzstein and Hwang is good but good alternatives are Bertsekas & Tsitsiklis or Grimmett and Stirzaker.

[Emanuel Derman @emanuelderman.bsky @EmanuelDerman]

I’m re-quoting this because I think anybody in the world who wants to understand anything by asking the question ״why?״ should be forced to watch this first.

[Philippe Lemoine @phl43]

This reminds me of how, in the Soviet Union, managers would try to game planning targets, which resulted in pervasive inefficiencies.

For instance, if you were the manager of a tractor factory and your planning target was expressed in tons, you had an incentive to make your tractors as heavy as possible to achieve it, thereby wasting a lot of steel and other inputs.

It would be funny if AI ended up creating similar problems and people had to learn the lesson about Goodhart's law the hard way again.

[Rajiv Sethi @rajivatbarnard]

Some Recollections of Perry Mehrling

https://t.co/M6yVREd6Xl

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

100%. Real yields and risk-free bond yields are going up because of the expected capital requirements of the AI investment boom. The government is being "crowded out".

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

They said a US bond market crisis was coming. So why is the USD index moving higher and US stocks hitting new highs?

The move in yields is almost all real yields, not inflation expectations. 5 and 10 year breakevens (shown below) are still around 2.4% and haven't moved much at all. So this looks like a repricing of real growth expectations, not an inflation or default scare. If this were an inflation spiral like 2022 you'd see breakevens spiking and equities moving lower, and we're not seeing either.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

[Mike Bird @Birdyword]

"Yep and I was wondering if you could make the new building a sort of very unsubtle commentary on the UK's diminished status in the world?"

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

"Britain has private ownership while making the state responsible for planning via subsidies. The result is a zombie system, a muddled and dysfunctional hybrid of state and market, with the benefits of neither and the costs of both. The regulatory architecture behind this is the most complex in the world."

True of almost every major sector of the UK economy.

https://t.co/Q5SfVF9Kij

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

"The central planners of today are unlike their predecessors in one crucial respect: they do not build, own or operate infrastructure. They carry out PowerPoint planning" https://t.co/VqciJ3IxOA

[katie @catherine_zq]

i love this account. petty criminals not realizing the city of london has actual policing still

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

agreed on everything but the cybersecurity risk. You are way too optimistic on how secure our critical systems are, e.g. all it takes to take down UK aviation is some malformed flight data being entered into the system. And they most certainly do not use frontier models to make them airtight. So far, we haven't had that many breaks because it is still easy enough to catch the perpetrators, or some such hacks would be tantamount to an act of war, or some wannabe hackers don't possess the competence to execute it. None of these will hold in a world of semi-autonomous agents.

[Henry Shevlin @dioscuri]

As recently as April this year, prediction markets gave AI less than a 40% chance of solving any Millennium Prize Problem before **2030**

[•Freyja• @utotranslucence]

Does anyone ever pass bills that are like 'actually ,can we just tidy all this legal code up a bit?' like, a bill that just refactors and cleans up legislation?

[Timothy B. Lee @binarybits]

At this point it seems inevitable that in the future there will be autonomous self-replicating AI agents roaming around the Internet causing mischief, and we won't be able to shut them down.

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

This is an actual broadcast from Pol Pot’s Cambodia, live from Phnom Penh. After his tearful mea culpa, extracted along with his fingernails, he was sentenced to 10 years hard labour in the paddy fields — and never heard of again. As is only right for all counter-revolutionaries of the bourgeois intelligentsia.

[Ritwik Priya @ritwik_priya]

If there's anything that exemplifies the constant failure of UK's policy in basic vitus/ will to live terms, it's the hosepipe ban. You get drip drip rainfall 9 months in a year, your excruciating hot and dry spells last barely 6 weeks, and you have to resort to unenforceable feel good bunkum because you haven't built a reservoir in the last 30 years.

Just totally lemon behaviour.

[Wolfgang Munchau @EuroBriefing]

The fall and decline of VW is an extraordinary story. It’s about arrogance, complacency, internal power battles, and uncritical fanboy media reporting, as we write in our of stories today. VW, and other European companies, are struggling to come to terms with technologies that were not invented at home. It’s not just cars. European consumers are queuing for Chinese-made solar panels and air conditioners. Don’t think for a second that you are going to fix this problem through tariffs and quotas.
https://t.co/xhrTyJS1Hq

[Tejus Sawjiani @tejus_sawjiani]

no good outcomes for the valuations of these cos either. they have to release it soon...it's like the pharmaceutical industry where u have a limited window to cash out before the generics start snipping at your heels...and here the chinese generics are just 6-8 months away.

[Dan Neidle @DanNeidle]

UK tax has gone up significantly over the last 25 years

But the tax paid by the average UK worker has not

This apparent miracle was achieved by taxing “other people”: higher earners, capital, property, banks, etc

The strategy has run out of road

A 🧵 on what happens next.

[Ritwik Priya @ritwik_priya]

The fiscal situation of the UK may improve overnight.

[Ashwin Parameswaran @macroresilience]

"Even a deceitful imitation of wisdom will place you among the wise." Kenko