Timo

[Kenjatina @Kenjatina_og]

Everyone heard what happened to Leopold Aschenbrenner.

Situational Awareness rode the AI and semiconductor boom, gained 439% through June, then lost 67% in July. The fund was forced to sell most of its public-equity book, with Citadel buying a large portion.

But Leopold’s story is not unique.

Almost every cycle produces a market star who rides the dominant trend, mistakes bull-market beta for genius, adds leverage—and becomes the sacrifice when volatility returns.

And here are the historical examples:

> 2000: Dot-coms

Hundreds of internet companies exploded because the internet really was changing the world. The thesis was right. The valuations were not. The Nasdaq eventually lost roughly 78% from its peak.

> 2008: Lehman Brothers

Lehman became a Wall Street giant through housing, subprime mortgages and structured credit. When the trade reversed, leverage turned losses into bankruptcy and helped push the entire financial system into crisis.

> 2021: Melvin Capital

Gabe Plotkin built one of Wall Street’s most respected hedge funds through short selling. Then GameStop squeezed Melvin into a 53% monthly loss, forcing Citadel and Point72 to inject $2.75 billion.

> 2022: Three Arrows Capital

Su Zhu and Kyle Davies became crypto legends by riding the bull market with borrowed money. When Luna collapsed and margin calls arrived, 3AC entered liquidation with billions in creditor claims.

> 2022: FTX & Alameda Research

Sam Bankman-Fried built a $32 billion empire and became the face of institutional crypto. Then the bull market ended, Alameda’s losses were exposed, customer money was missing and FTX collapsed within days.

The pattern is still familiar:

rising market > huge returns > excessive confidence > leverage > one correction > forced liquidation.

During a bull market, almost everyone makes money.

The danger begins when they forget that part of the performance came from the market itself.

You can have the correct thesis and you can own the correct stocks.

But at 2x leverage, a 50% decline mathematically erases your equity. At 3x, it takes roughly 33% and in reality, margin calls usually arrive much earlier.

Once the largest forced seller is removed and the positions move into stronger hands, that is often how a local bottom begins.

Simple advice: Stay rational and manage your risks.

[Timo @maimeri17]

@0xvietnguyen Crypto technologies - results

[Timo @maimeri17]

Interesting situation yesterday. $THE was getting heavily pumped on a DEX while at the same time you could still buy it on Binance spot, send it to the DEX and dump it there for a few X.

In setups like this the smart move is to hedge with futures if they’re available. Those who opened hedges on Binance ended up making extra on top of the arb, because the token’s price dropped not long after.

Some people managed to run several arbitrage cycles. Judging by the chats, the profits were pretty solid.

[Timo @maimeri17]

@MannElsie4651 fuck off

[Timo @maimeri17]

Nado — the next Lighter?
Right now competition is still super low, farming points is way easier, and rewards for activity are noticeably higher. I’m running several wallets with medium volumes and consistently hitting top 500–700 in points every week.
Hard to say exact point price at TGE — too many variables. But a lot of people I follow and talk to are throwing around ~$3/point, and it feels realistic. Let’s compare to Lighter’s December launch:
Lighter weekly points: ~250,000 @nadoHQ weekly points: 950,000
Lighter 1 point price at TGE: ~$65
950,000 / 250,000 = 3.8× $65 / 3.8 ≈ $17.10 per point
This is obviously the most bullish napkin math (ignoring alpha bonus). But if other DEXs start launching at strong valuations like they did in the fall, FOMO kicks in again, people start spinning volume hard — and point price can moon very quickly just like Lighter did back then.
Realistic range right now: $3–4/point Dream scenario with FOMO: $6–8–10+
Bottom line: just start doing it and trade volume already. Later you’ll regret the FOMO. Market is quiet right now, no big activities — perfect window.

Get in early: https://t.co/9CDxaqt3FF

[Timo @maimeri17]

@tobific Polymarket ofc

[Timo @maimeri17]

@nansen_ai This is certainly cool, but maybe you should release your own token?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@chip1cr get well, buddy

[Timo @maimeri17]

@KookCapitalLLC Who the hell needs yet another crappy L1?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@Ferrari4u2 Don’t forget that Avantis is a protocol on Base. Most likely, direct involvement and support from Coinbase is part of the story - they even invested in them. And those betting on Lighter coming out with under a 2B FDV probably just don’t believe the TGE will happen this year

[Timo @maimeri17]

@vladechad Believing him is basically disrespecting yourself

[Timo @maimeri17]

@HollanderAdam If it is summed up, it will mean that those who have been trading in different networks for a long time, did different actions to guess and get their lucky box will look like a loser compared to those who were led by the hand and given a guide on what to do to get HP. Right?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@HollanderAdam What will happen to those who were closed beta testers in os2. To those who received XP in boxes, and not for tasks. Are XP in boxes more valuable or will it all be added up?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@buidlpad @Zh_Crypto517 At the last Sahara sale, you didn't have a description that RU was banned and accordingly I was eligible, but at the moment the sale started, you banned this geo. Should we expect the same here?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@ASvanevik @OnchainLens @0xsammy @Bike4Sail @CryptoGideon_ @ChrisPark_IC @GH2012Telefe @fackblock @cryppinfluence @Subli_Defi @NotAMickey @Kenjat1na - is a good analyst

[Timo @maimeri17]

@onchaincrawler @opensea Truth

[Timo @maimeri17]

@opensea @apecoin previous activities before this post will be taken into account in apechain?

[Timo @maimeri17]

@unohooooo @Alain_Ncls @monadolorian @LineaBuild @nansen_ai @AdsPowerBrowser Bro, forget it. Consensus is made up of Jews only, what can you expect from them)

[Timo @maimeri17]

@letmecooketh @Alain_Ncls @monadolorian @LineaBuild the sibyl who was not caught and wishes evil rejoices