For the last one year suddenly everyone has discovered “global diversification”.
Every second portfolio discussion now starts with US markets… AI… Nasdaq… Magnificent 7… semiconductor revolution… dollar hedge… and some random chart showing how India is apparently too “overvalued” for existence.
Not that international investing is wrong. In fact sensible international exposure absolutely makes sense. But what is happening now is not diversification. It is global FOMO packaged as sophisticated investing.
There’s a difference.
A lot of investors who until recently had never invested outside their own bank FD are now building portfolios with 70 to 80% allocation to international markets because AI has become the new religion and every US tech stock chart looks like a staircase to heaven.
Apparently if a company says “AI” enough times… valuation no longer matters… geography no longer matters… and risk management becomes old school thinking.
The funniest part is watching people lecture about “country diversification” while putting almost their entire net worth into one single theme driven by one single geography.
That is not diversification.
That is concentration with better English vocabulary.
Many are forgetting that international markets also go through brutal cycles. US markets are not some divine wealth creation machine that only moves upward. People are looking at the last few years of AI and tech momentum and extrapolating it like this is the permanent future of investing.
Every cycle creates a story powerful enough to make people forget risk.
Earlier it was China.
Then crypto.
Then EV.
Then metaverse.
Now AI has arrived wearing a suit and carrying quarterly earnings.
Again… AI will absolutely transform businesses. Great companies will emerge. Massive wealth will be created. But every powerful trend also creates excesses. And excesses are where retail investors quietly confuse momentum with permanent truth.
India suddenly looks “boring” to people sitting in one of the fastest growing economies in the world because Nasdaq had a stronger one year chart.!
Irony at its peak.
Most investors don’t realise that true diversification is boring by design. It is supposed to reduce risk… not maximise excitement.
But oh ya man excitement sells far better than asset allocation.
Our badminton team is great. But they still choke a lot. Stardom is not built when you are at the 3rd or 4th place. It’s tough to achieve but Gone are the days of celebrating 4th place of Milkha singh at the Olympics. Win an Olympics medal, see the adulation.
First Lata Mangeshkar. Now Asha Bhosle. Different styles, both touched by greatness. So many great songs, for me Umrao Jaan was the cherry on the top. The last survivor of the great era of Rafi, Kishore, Mukesh, Manna Dey, Talat, Geeta Dutt, Lata and Asha is gone and while we use the expression loosely, it is really the end of an era.
Is there "clarity" today?
Markets up 3.5%.
A few days ago the question was: "Why not wait for clarity?"
Is there clarity today? What changed? If POTUS becomes best friends with the Supreme Leader next week and markets are up another 10%, will you invest then? Post 14% rally? With clarity?
And if you do invest then and the conflict flares up again in two weeks?
There is no clarity. There never is.
If you are well diversified, running proper asset allocation or doing long term systematic investing, a 15% or even 30% move is not a crisis. It is the price of admission. You should expect it.
But many investors save 5% to 10% of their portfolio each year, or come into some money, or find their asset allocation has drifted for whatever reason. They face the question of when to deploy. For long term investments, good entry odds are all we can ensure. We shouldn't be too cute about it.
When odds are favorable, increase your bet. If they become more favorable, increase more. Don't think in binary terms. Don't ask "should I go from 60% to 80%?" Can you go to 62% then can you go to 68%? 75%? Gradually. Continuously. Without waiting for a clarity that will never arrive.
The only approach that reliably beats this is a systematic, rule based, pre committed allocation. And that works precisely because it removes you from the decision.
BREAKING: The US Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year.
The proposal is expected to be published as soon as next month.
BJP is in alliance with Shinde's Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP in assembly. But in Corporation elections Ajit Pawar's and Sharad Pawar's NCP are in alliance. BJP broke up their alliance with Shinde's Sena and both are going solo.
MNS who supported BJP+ during Lok Sabha is an alliance with Uddhav's Shiv sena in Mumbai. Congress is going solo in Mumbai but is in alliance with both Uddhav's Sena and MNS in Pune. Bapu Pathare was the only MLA who won in Pune from the opposition. But his son, daughter in law and nephew are contesting from BJP. Sitting Congress MLA who lost in Pune switched to Shinde's Sena and he is the main reason that is cited for the breaking of BJP - Shinde sena alliance.
BJP's Amol Balwadkar who helped Chandrakant Patil secure 1 L + lead in Pune during assembly switched to Ajit Pawar camp.
This is not politics anymore, it’s an absolute farce. What’s unfolding in Pune ahead of the 15th January elections is shameless, cynical, and exhausting. Parties are swapping loyalties like jerseys, alliances mean nothing, ideology is dead, and voters are expected to keep track of this circus without a single manifesto or vision in sight. It’s insulting, frankly. I have never missed voting in any election since 2014, but this time I genuinely don’t care
I like how so many people were pointing out about Perth pitch flatenning out on the basis of that one game last year only to see this test at the verge of completion at tea on Day 2 😂
19th October, 11:41 pm (Post India v England)
I receive a call from my dad.
"Kyun re, Teri team toh haar gayi!"
"Meri? Hamari team. Aur khel mein toh haar-jeet lagi rahti h."
I kept the phone down, standing outside the Holkar Stadium.
+
Thumb rule: The Indian women's cricket team is not beyond criticism, they deserve to be analysed and critiqued like any sports team / individual athlete in this country. But the choice of words and tone for the said criticism says a lot more about the critic than the team itself.
@AsliBCCIWomen Might be an unpopular opinion, but India has needed that batting depth in 3 of the 4 games so far. If the batters were doing their job well then it made sense. You have to compromise on something to get one thing right here
You could use this video to talk about our failure to invest in safe, affordable and well-connected public transport to serve everyone regardless of gender and social standing. Or you could be a misogynistic idiot. Your choice.
I love the confidence with which people say "I don't follow women's cricket much but xyz should be played.. ". You should have just stopped at the first 5 words
Early retirement is romanticized because most people want to escape work they don’t enjoy.
Being bombarded with ads from finfluencers, traders, random blokes, and even a reputed daily offering an 8-day masterclass on financial freedom, I have to say this.
Before anything, ask yourself: What will you do if you retire early? What will your day look like? Will your family, especially your kids, have time for you or are they busy with their own lives? What example are you setting for the young ones? How are you contributing to your country?
Instead of chasing financial freedom through investments or trading, upskill and find work you love. Balance it with family.
Many never retire, happily doing what they love until their last day. Keeps them sharp, purpose driven and even healthier than their peers.
Amitabh Bachchan
Pyarelal Sharma
Zakir Hussain
Lata Mangeshkar
Asha Bhosle
Satyajit Ray
Warren Buffett
Charlie Munger
Ratan Tata
JRD Tata
BK Birla
RK Narayan
Girish Karnad
M Damodaran
YH Malegam
David Attenborough
Manmohan Singh
Narendra Modi
And so many more…
Its easier said than done. I myself haven’t pursued what I truly want yet. But I will someday. And will do it till my last day.