Manso

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[Manso @manso_dr]

@hlibtrazanov Playbook

[Lucas Sacerdote🔋 @LucasSacerdote_]

Canadian Solar [Full Investment Thesis]: Everything You Need to Know About $CSIQ

“THE GREAT SOLAR RECKONING”

☀️ 🔋$CSIQ became my largest position earlier this year, after I had been studying the company since 2023.

Here is my 250-page, ~three-hour presentation on Canadian Solar. I made this video to compress the 1,000+ hours of work already done here, hopefully helping speed up the learning curve for anyone interested.☀️🔋

This is not meant to be flawless. It is meant to be done.

I believe $CSIQ is entering one of the most promising periods in its history. With $15B+ in total assets, three multi-billion-dollar businesses spanning solar manufacturing, storage manufacturing, and project development across six continents, and a mere ~$1B market capitalization, Canadian Solar is poised to be one of the top energy performers in 2026.

The market has left this company for dead. But underneath the surface, the foundations of the business have been getting stronger:

- While the solar industry wrongly spent on building overcapacity, Canadian Solar was one of the few companies slowing down and investing upstream into its project development arm.

- While everyone looked to globalize supply chains, Canadian Solar has been building its manufacturing presence in the U.S. since 2023.

- While much of the industry was still debating battery storage, Canadian Solar was already building gigawatt-scale projects in 2021. Today, it is reaping the benefits of having been a first mover.

This is the story of a company that, despite operating in a ruthless and complicated industry, has consistently been deliberate and rational in its capital allocation decisions.

It remains founder-led, with the founder still owning ~20% of the company. Shareholder value creation will always be top of mind, regardless of the market’s current irrationality.

The solar industry, like every commodity industry, is deeply cyclical. I am convinced we have already seen the worst of it, and that better profitability is ahead for equipment manufacturers. This is already starting to show in CSI Solar’s Q1 2026 results, with $100M+ in operating profit for the quarter.

The supply-demand imbalance for electricity should result in excess profitability.

$CSIQ is about to make the undeniable obvious: Canadian Solar is a Western (actually, global) leader in renewable energy. Not middle of the pack. At the very top.

They produce ~25 GW of solar modules per year and ~15 GWh of storage per year. For reference, the entire U.S. added roughly 60 GW of total generation capacity in 2025.

And they do not only manufacture. They also develop, engineer, construct, and operate billions of dollars of energy assets. That creates a powerful learning and feedback loop between manufacturing and operations, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve. Their BESS experience is the clearest example.

At first glance, my estimates and projections may look overly optimistic. But I would ask you to take the time to analyze each one individually. I think you will see that even my bull case uses assumptions that many people already treat as base case assumptions for comparable companies such as $FLNC, $TE, $FSLR, $AMRC, $NXT, and others.

My base case assumes roughly half the profitability the industry expects from peers, and still results in an ~10x investment opportunity.

Not growing into it. Worth that today.

Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, questions, and pushback!! ☀️☀️🔋🔋

Timeline CSIQ:
0:00 Introduction
1:38 Executive Summary
11:35 Macro
18:15 Corporate History
21:00 Management & Team
25:10 Solar Industry & Market
42:47 CSI Solar - the $7B solar behemoth $CSIQ owns
57:00 Project Demand - CSI Solar
1:00:05 BESS Subsidiary with Multi-GWh Firm Orders
1:05:35 Project Demand for e-Storage/BESS
1:11:44 Recurrent Energy - The Multi-Billion Renewable Project Developer
1:34:36 US Manufacturing - 10GWs of Capacity and First Ever to Produce Solar Cells Domestically
1:56:15 Competitors
2:19:29 Litigation
2:28:32 Quality
2:30:52 Valuation & Financial Analysis
2:40:40 Conclusion
2:43:15 Miscellaneous

Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell $CSIQ or any other security mentioned here. I am not a registered investment advisor (RIA). Always do your own research (DYOR). I and/or accounts under my management or discretion, may currently hold positions in $CSIQ and may purchase or sell shares at any time without further notice. My opinions, price targets, and allocation suggestions are my personal views and can change without prior notice. Investing in stocks involves a significant risk of loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

If you found this useful, follow me for more deep dives like this. I spend a ridiculous amount of time studying this whole ecosystem.

Please like and share this post if you think more people should be aware of how attractive Canadian Solar could be as an investment opportunity.

[Lucas Sacerdote🔋 @LucasSacerdote_]

https://t.co/cjnnGZOWmk

[HeyGen @HeyGen]

We built our launch video in Claude Code using HyperFrames.

Now it's yours.

Open source, agent-native framework. HTML to MP4.

$ npx skills add heygen-com/hyperframes

RT + Comment "HyperFrames" to get the full source code of this launch video (must follow)

[Manso @manso_dr]

@HeyGen Hyperframes

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Incredible that it was only 66 years from the first controlled, powered flight to landing on the Moon!

[axe @axepreneur]

Reminder: this is still the greatest ad ever made.

[George Ferman @Helios_Movement]

Miss him.

[Lucas Sacerdote🔋 @LucasSacerdote_]

https://t.co/EbCd4IvK2v

[Manso @manso_dr]

@LucasSacerdote_ 🇦🇷🔝

[Lucas Sacerdote🔋 @LucasSacerdote_]

https://t.co/XwIm6LXeF7

[Alec Oxenford @alejandrito]

The moment has arrived. Argentina Week begins in just a few minutes.

One year ago, with old friends and trusted partners Facundo Gómez Minujín (JPM), Sebastián Loketek (BofA) and Hernán Kazah (Kaszek), we imagined how to show a new Argentina to the world.

Today that vision is a reality — and it exceeded our expectations.

The Argentina we want to show is the one moving forward under the leadership of Javier Milei: a country committed to openness, confidence and the promotion of investments that have the power to transform our future.

Thank you all for being part of it.

#ArgentinaWeekNYC @JPMorgan @BankofAmerica @KaszekVentures

[NYSE 🏛 @NYSE]

Celebrating Argentina Week at the NYSE!

Congratulations to President @JMilei and our 18 NYSE-listed Argentine companies for continuing to drive innovation, growth, and opportunity across our markets.

[Manso @manso_dr]

@CarlosMaslaton @casarena15 Nuevo método desbloqueado.

[Fede Sturzenegger @fedesturze]

¿CÓMO EXPLICAR LAS GANANCIAS DEL COMERCIO? Todo el tema de las vacaciones en el exterior, Shein, los autos BYD y ahora el acuerdo con la UE son buenas excusas para pensar nuevamente sobre los beneficios del comercio. Debería ser obvio. Desde siempre las sociedades crecieron y se enriquecieron comerciando. Es que comerciar es acceder a bienes más baratos y eso nunca puede ser malo.

Sin embargo, siempre se arma debate porque hay alguien afectado por esa competencia externa que protesta. Sabemos que en equilibrio (si se me permite el tecnicismo) el empleo no se modifica porque todo dólar que se importa requiere un dólar que se exporte, entonces los empleos desplazados por las nuevas importaciones se reemplazan con nuevos empleos en sectores de exportación.

El problema es que es difícil ver esos nuevos trabajos, porque se distribuyen en toda la economía. El que sea visible lo que se pierde sin que sea igualmente visible lo que se gana es lo que le da alguna pátina de verosimilitud a la crítica al comercio. Entonces expliquémoslo al revés ¡veamos si podemos hacer que se vea mejor lo que se gana que lo que se pierde!

Para ello imaginemos que en nuestro mundo el oxígeno que respiramos en vez de ser abundante y gratis como es ahora sea escaso y habría que producirlo. Andaríamos como Matthew McConaughey y Matt Damon en la imagen de Interstellar que adjunto.

LA INDUSTRIA en ese mundo sería la producción de oxígeno, así como la producción escafandras y accesorios. Un mundo de mierda, bah. Porque poco podríamos hacer y la billetera se nos vaciaría en ese insumo tan esencial.

Ahora cae alguien (una civilización de otro planeta) y nos ofrece un comercio: inundar el planeta de oxígeno, tanto que pasaría a ser gratis, a cambio de cierta cantidad de rocas (parece que en ese otro planeta no tienen).

Obvio que hay que aceptar, ¿no? Pero no me cuesta imaginar en ese mundo a algunos diciendo: ¡no hay que aceptar el oxígeno gratis! ¡podría dañar la industria del oxígeno! ¡y la de escafandras! ¡Se perderán empleos en esas industrias! Vendrían a ser los @MiguelPichetto de ese mundo. Excepto que ahora el absurdo queda a la vista. Porque nos resulta fácil ver todo lo que ganaríamos de tener oxigeno gratis: tendríamos un planeta como el que tenemos ahora, con todo el empleo, riqueza y bienestar del que gozaríamos ya que no deberíamos usar los recursos para producir oxígeno sino que podríamos hacer mil otras cosas, todas muchas más copadas (¡y nos costaría solo unas piedras!).

Ahora reemplazá oxígeno, por autos BYD, por nuevas importaciones de Europa, o por vacaciones en Aruba y quizás sea más fácil ver que esas importaciones van a generar un montón de empleo: en los servicios que se desarrollan porque la gente gastaría menos en lo que antes le salía más caro, y en las industrias de exportación que van a tener que generar los dólares que se necesitan para pagar esas importaciones (en nuestro ejemplo sería en la industria de las rocas).

Espero esta pequeña metáfora sirva para dimensionar por qué la apertura es una bonanza. Los BYD, el acuerdo con la UE, Shein, los celulares más baratos. Solo la imaginación es el techo. Todo será más bienestar y más empleo. Por eso ayer el Presidente @JMilei explicaba que el acuerdo con la UE debiera ser el punto de partida de una apertura más agresiva.

No puedo terminar sin una nota de color sobre los autos BYD. Si pudiéramos ir a China veríamos que los autos en China son todos eléctricos y con dispositivos de seguridad que hacen a los nuestros lucir como los de Pedro Picapiedras. Si nos interesa la seguridad vial, si nos interesa la vida de los miles de argentinos que mueren en las rutas todos los años, deberíamos celebrar la llegada de estos autos. De hecho, pedir más. Sin hablar de los beneficios ambientales y sonoros (¡no hacen ruido!) Y por no mencionar que cargar el tanque sale sólo 7000 pesitos. Por eso el cupo fue sobre-demandado en 3 veces. Los que critican el comercio quizás debieran empezar por respetar y querer un poco más a los argentinos. Aunque sea un poquito. VLLC!

[🍓🍓🍓 @iruletheworldmo]

i never want to read any other way again.

[Manuel Aráoz @maraoz]

Argentines are world-class problem solvers in broken environments.

[@amuse @amuse]

https://t.co/SSrQnjSF57

[Facu 🇦🇷 @facugramaj0]

The most productive marketing tool ever made 😎

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