Marc Z

[Fenng @Fenng]

湖南邵阳这个地方真是人杰地灵。历史上有名的「邵氏孤儿」的故事就来自邵阳。

https://t.co/QegUcbVQE7

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@Meowooomeowooo 有湖北匪吗

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@harvey Is Harvey named after the tv show Suits?

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@infoxiao lol they’d be waiting in line to write the check

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@macrotradecn 不光是叙事，人业绩也是实打实的好啊，a股那动辄p/e 50-100x，peg几十倍，人家只有你1/10

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

每当我limit要用完的时候

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

To celebrate a week of efficiency and let you run 100'000 Luna threads this weekend... that's right... wait for it... I have reset usage limits for Codex and ChatGPT Work.

Enjoy.

[Tibo @thsottiaux]

To celebrate a week of efficiency and let you run 100'000 Luna threads this weekend... that's right... wait for it... I have reset usage limits for Codex and ChatGPT Work.

Enjoy.

[Citrini @citrini]

Imagine, for a moment, you are an LP in Situational Awareness. The fund that launched on a pitch that was essentially “AI is the only thing that matters and if you recognize that and wish to be invested in a vehicle that will express that view by getting massively nips to nuts long the most beta to our informed AI views this fine stock market can offer us, then you invest”. And you invested. Not just because you’re bullish on AI, thousands of hedge funds are “bullish on AI”, but because you think Leopold is uniquely situated as being one of/knowing “the few hundred people” who will bring about Machine God before 2030.

Then over the next two years, the fund did exactly what it said it would. And it went up. By, like, twenty something times if I’m remembering properly.

Again, in this scenario you are the person who read Situational Awareness (the paper) and said “Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than the nuclear bomb and will render the world unrecognizable before the decade is out. And I want my investments into the hedge fund version of that view”.

Now those stocks go down, so the fund goes down.

Let me ask you - do these LPs seem like the type of people that are going to become bearish on AI because SK Hynix got cut in half in six weeks? The people who likely regard “I’m going long TQQQ” levels of tech bullishness the same way normal people view investing into a muni bond fund?

Yeah...I would not expect many of them are calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don’t realize how insane being up 2200% since inception (in 2024) is. To put that into perspective, if you invested $100M with SALP at inception and wiped out ninety percent in July, your investment would be worth $230M.

I think it’s probable the LPs will BTFD. Situational Awareness is going to get the money they’re asking for. And, once it’s in, they’ll take off their (likely short dated) hedges because they’re not at risk of getting liquidated by their prime, meaning the market makers that sold them the hedges will cover their delta hedge on what’s probably quite a lot of notional exposure. And at the same time, they will be deploying that capital into what they think is “the best buying opportunity since April 2025”.

I don’t think @leopoldasch is in trouble so much as he’s likely to raise the capital he’s asking for, which would mean it’s more likely now that Leopold causes the bottom than causes AI to continue going down.

If there’s something I’m missing that would cause this cohort of LPs who are AI-super-believers that are likely still up significantly on their SALP investment to decide that they would rather not buy the dip, then, sure, every stock even vaguely AI-smelling is probably going to Hades. But…

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@ChinaMacroFacts 我之前听说的是今年1500-2000。公司质地肯定强过大部分百倍pe的标的，但个人认为如果从基本面没什么好分析/与韩国标的对比的，capex投入也主要在dram扩产上，和韩国那两家不太像一类animal

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@ChinaMacroFacts 我倾向于该新闻是配合某位副总理的需要。

[Denny’s @DennysDiner]

@JensenHuang @nvidia

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

Nobody should be chained to the cubic box. NOBODY!
Thank you OAI

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@suanguaa ���有意思的观点

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@yifaer_chen 买点brk感觉比做空靠谱

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@ChinaMacroFacts lp是地方国资，而愿意出资的地方往往产业弱、本就财政不充裕，地方主官这种豪赌确实是有违反统一大市场的嫌疑，即为了出政绩搞出一地鸡毛拍屁股走人。当然，单从程序正义上来说，确实应该事前而非事后监管

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@ChinaMacroFacts 人形机器人是个正确的方向，但是这个公司大概率不是一家好的公司。

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@catmangox 所以 从哪里入金到美资券商很重要，如果是从合规的银行账户入金到美资券商，obligation在上一手（银行）。那么问题就变成要怎么找合规比较松的海外银行了。

[Marc Z @marcuszzz93]

@ChinaMacroFacts @lilaoshizuikeai 万一这一代又吃不饱了😂

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

This is the the quote I've been citing a lot recently.