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For those that fear the rise of AI, (& particularly those who don’t!), Ferguson gives a first hand view of its wavering evolution of history that will send shivers up & down your spines!
https://t.co/x3jiQCQRxk
Exactly one week ago, Team USA stunned the favored Canadians in thrilling fashion to capture its 1st gold medal since 1980! The boys ignited a patriotic fire across the nation as we march toward America’s 250th birthday. Consider it your civic duty to keep the celebration going - today & all summer long! 🇺🇸 🥇 🍻
V Last but certainly not least is the impending change in Fed Chairman commonly associated with another increased risk to markets.
Volcker in ‘79
Greenspan in ‘87
Bernake in ‘06
in particular but ‘14 & ‘18
Too!
IV: Add that China’s demographic trend is worse than in ‘49 whilst generals fall from the committee’s highest ranks. Russia’s shadow fleets contract & Iran threatens live-fire exercises in the Strait, the whole world’s financially & geopolitically in play more since Reagan years
III: ‘80’s Hunt Brothers debacle was a ~50% drop & margin changes appear to be the cause now too. Must say I’m surprised we don’t see more margin changes as more & more speculation seeps into the markets. Between Dalio & N Howe, this could be much more torturous.
II: average peak to trough decline during this cycle is 18%. And that sometimes the short term becomes the long term trend . . . en garde for the social unrest & organized theft belies a rot that potentially may eventually stink up your portfolios!
So we’ve seen that good and even great news isn’t enough to support stocks recently followed by huge gyrational drop (largest ever maybe) in silver. This is your reminder that this is a midterm election cycle year ( the bumpiest of the four! ) that since ‘22’s low has risen 100%
On the eve of NYC elections during national government shutdown one can’t help but feel “So this is how the premise for the Escape from New York movie evolved!”
If Milton Friedman was alive today and part of @DOGE...
-Department of Agriculture: Abolish
-Department of Commerce: Abolish
-Department of Education: Abolish
-Department of Housing & Urban Development: Abolish
-Department of the Interior: Abolish
-Department of Labor: Abolish
-Department of Transportation: Abolish
-Department of Veteran Affairs: Abolish (pay lump sum awards to Vets)
-Department of Energy: Abolish (except nuclear -> tied to the military -> move to Defense)
-Department of Homeland Security (wasn't around back then but assume he would abolish and move to Defense)
-Department of Health & Human Services: Abolish Half
-Department of State: Keep
-Department of Defense: Keep
-Department of Justice: Keep
-Department of Treasury: Keep
15 Executive Departments cut down to 4 and a half.
Been awhile: REAL roadsign maybe! Deep in text - “The revision is mainly due to the highest-paying sectors: i.e., professional services -358k, leisure -150k, and manufacturing -115k. Not at all surprising: government was revised +1,000.” Canary for sure!! https://t.co/qNQpSOC5HT
Glimmer of the light desperately needed on “the news” - lifts my heart to think what may be part of a huge groundswell may be occurring in America today
Senior @NPR editor @uberliner has been suspended from the public radio network he's served for 25 years after sharing concerns about bias in The Free Press: https://t.co/EclQJO838a
It's also worth noting we are building on YEARS of elevated inflation.
The purchasing power of a Dollar is down over 20% since 2020.
Affordability is unlikely to improve anytime in the near future.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
The share of US small-business owners who plan to raise worker compensation fell in February to the lowest in nearly three years and fewer expect to boost headcount, suggesting a softening in labor demand https://t.co/wk8FVn5Emf
I’m going to guess not one person reading this #tweet knew the current economic expansion is as strong as the much-noted #Reagan expansion. (Chart: @BankofAmerica Global Investment Strategy)