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[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Bull flag on the weekly that’s about to breakout and an inverse head and shoulders on the daily.

Summer rally incoming🚀 This isn’t the time to short.

Have a good weekend my friends!✌️

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

It looks like $AAPL completed a double top today.
I opened up some 7/24 300P with my target being 295.50.

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

$MSFT Textbook 5-wave up, 3-wave down model.

Daily FVG support tap.

H1 iFVG entry trigger.

Expecting a strong resolution higher to the 402 swing high, which aligns with the measured targets.

This play is a GIFT.

Enjoy.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Sorry for the late post market update, I was out.
Anyway lets jump into $SPY. Decent performance today, though the close raises some questions. Volume was lower again today and we closed above the moving averages as well as a key darkpool zone. However right after the close a few massive darkpool prints came over at the MOC price and at the same time there was all bearish massive options orders on SPY and SPX with the smallest being a put spread for 8/21 targeting 712 on SPY. The hourly oscillators look like they are starting to roll over too. The 20/50DMA spread was unch today.

Another red flag is the $SMH rejected the 20DMA and closed under the 10DMA and EMA21, and it is sitting on the EMA 8. It also kicked out a solid green exhaustion candle. Looks like it is setting up for a gap fill tomorrow or Monday.

In terms of gamma, we are once again positive on net gex. It seems like every day we bounce from negative one day, to positive the next, and then negative again. It would really be interesting if net gex went negative again tomorrow. Right now we are just under the 752 call wall, and the 740 put wall is still -1BLN.

Overall I think tomorrow we are going to get some mean reversion tomorrow with volatility ticking up ahead of the weekend with Iran hedging. My base case is a retest of 745, but it would be on brand for this scammy market to drop us to 742 again tomorrow. I still see us chopping sideways between 752 and 740 until OpEx or a 20/50DMA death cross, whichever comes first. There is too much resistance up here so I don't see more upside until earnings season starts.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Early morning trade has $SPY rejecting the 748 resistance level we lost support of on Tuesday. A clear breakout at open means we hit 750 tomorrow. However if this rejection holds I’ll expect another retest during the cash session and that failure will send us back under 746.77, which has been the line in the sand.

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

$SPX had a perfect reaction off Daily FVG support.

Today's low officially COMPLETES the E-wave of the W4 triangle.

That builds into a multi-week rally starting tomorrow under W5 — if today's reversal holds.

Dips bought against today's low.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Based on the $SPY pre market low and the 0dte put wall at 740, there is a good chance we revisit 739 during the session. 746.77 remains the key level that needs to be reclaimed if bulls want to have a chance at 750.

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

$SPX remains set up for the W5 rally.

W4 likely terminated last week.

The primary lean is unchanged — dips get BOUGHT.

A deeper dip should find support at the Daily FVG.

Close below SPX 7393 and the bullish triangle begins to fail.

[Memento Vitam @mementovitam]

$SPX $SPY | Gamma, GEX & Flow Analysis

Dealers flipped LONG GAMMA overnight. Net GEX positive and Raw GEX elevated (~7B+), shifting from recent fragility to structural support.

Spot trading above the gamma flip zone.

Gamma Flip: ~7520-7522

Spot above flip = dealers positioned to absorb moves rather than amplify them.

Call Side (Upside Walls & Resistance)
•7550 — Critical pivot + Abs GEX peak. Main decision zone. Reclaim + hold above opens 7575 → 7600 (major call wall).
•Heavy call OI building into higher strikes, but 7550-7600 cluster acts as resistance magnet until proven otherwise.
•1SD Expected Move top: ~7566
Put Side (Downside Support & Flows)
•7500-7522 — Put wall + gamma flip zone. First meaningful support.
•7475 — Max Pain area + strong negative GEX cluster. High-probability pin/magnet if 7500 breaks.
•Notable put flow stacked at 760/770 strikes (Vol/OI significantly elevated) — suggests hedging of upside risk or bearish bets further out.
•1SD Expected Move bottom: ~7509
Regime & Flows Positive gamma backdrop is constructive, but VIX 15.6-16 and rising keeps the tape reactive. Expect shakeouts, failed breaks, and quick reversals even with better dealer support. Overall P/C ratios neutral with improving upside participation.

Max Pain ~749 remains a center-of-gravity pull.

Actionable Levels (Zero Bias)

Bullish continuation trigger: Break & acceptance above 7550 (SPY ~752).
Targets: 7575 → 7600
Options: SPX 7550c | SPY 752c on strength

Bearish fade trigger: Lose 7522 / 7500.
Targets: 7475 (Max Pain) → 7425
Options: SPX 7510p | SPY 748p on weakness

Range / Pin scenario: High probability chop between 7500-7550 while gamma supports. 10m compression + trendline break at SPY 750 will provide the decisive trigger. VIX 16 remains key level to watch.
Structure is more supportive than recent sessions, but buyers must prove acceptance above 7550. Until then, two-way action and discipline on risk remain essential.
Price action confirms. Facts over noise.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Let's take a look at how $SPY closed today. We didn't get the rebalancing sell that I was expecting ahead of tomorrow's $SPCX inclusion, so maybe I will happen day of. We closed out the day right on trend resistance from the prior two highs. The spread between the 20dma and 50dma has narrowed again today, now only 2.53 apart. Again, a death cross of those two will trigger an immediate selloff. Options flow was thin today and really there was only standout with the 8/21 710P.

Gamma is back to positive, we've really just been ping ponging back and forth from positive to negative. 750 has to hold tomorrow in order to put 760 on the table. Though when we look at the gex for tomorrow's expiration it is lopsidedly skewed toward the put wall at 745 despite the overall positive gamma.

The VIX continues to look cheap, too cheap even. I did see some large bullish orders come over today, but unclear if it is signalling an imminent move as it makes sense to hedge with VIX calls here given how cheap it is.

Overall, I expect a pullback to 745 tomorrow, that would touch the 7/7 put wall AND close the gap on the lower timeframes from today's open. A confluence that can't be ignored. How it behaves there will tell the next step. I see two possibilities here, the first is a pullback to 745 that finds support and we break out of 750 by the close setting up a run to 760 by July OpEx. Then after OpEx things get spicy to the downside.
The second is that we get a deeper pullback to 711.40 by July OpEx which puts a big bull flag into play that could take us to 780 post OpEx.
So if you're a bull you actually want to see significant weakness NOW rather than later, as counterintuitive as that sounds. The risk however of a deeper pullback now is that it will give a death cross of the 20/50DMA, which could put the bull case on hold for a while.

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY we closed above 750 today so this inverse head and shoulders should blast off soon. 754 will be the first resistance then 757-760-763. Supports are 749-743-739. Below 739 bulls are in shambles and I’ll flip my bias.

Goodnight everyone!

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

And there goes the KOSPI, dragging Nasdaq futures with it like I said earlier.

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY $SMH I’ve already stated that I’m bullish on spy for July. The only thing that can make me change my mind is this chart.

The semiconductor etf closed below it’s 20 dma last week, but it’s holding above the 50, so far.

If it continues to hold above the 50 dma new all time highs will come. If it loses it i think it’ll trigger a correction and I’ll flip my bias.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Let's jump into $SPY now that we closed out the week. Today we ended up closing flat to slightly down, but most importantly we closed under the 746.77 level forming a rejection confirmation. It tested the 10DMA to the penny today, but it needs to hold it Monday for confirmation of support. What I think a lot of people are missing is that the 20DMA is racing down toward the 50DMA and the spread is only $3.65 wide now. A 20/50 Death Cross would be extremely bearish and likely lead to a steep drop. Though there was a 1.08BLN buyside MOC imbalance I don't see it as helpful for the bull case as it got eaten away from the 7.107BLN buyside MOC imbalance at the 10 minute first call.
The options landscape isn't too rosy either, the flow was very put heavy today with whales continuously whacking in the 7/31 725P for the second day in a row. Gamma is back to squarely negative and we are below the put wall at 745.

Also of consequence for stocks today we see that the 10 Year is breaking out of its bull pennant. The VIX is starting to look very cheap. And most importantly the $SMH took out its Monday low and the weekly chart looks like it's about to drill as it is precariously sitting on the EMA 8.

Keep in mind that next week on Wednesday we have a 10 Year auction and then after we get the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Overall my view here is my bull case is dead. The tap of 750 today may have been it. With put gex building up at the expense of call gex, and put flow actively targeting 725 for 2 days now, I think we are looking at a pullback next week at least to 725 which would back test the downtrend resistance line we broke out of on Monday. At that point I think we bounce, but how far depends on how things look at the time. I am particularly concerned with the larger interventions the Japanese MoF is taking on the Yen, and I think they only have one left before they get in trouble with the IMF which means they are going to have to throw the kitchen sink at the Yen. I think we are setting up for a repeat of July/August 2024. I took some puts today and will add on Monday if we reject 746.77 again.

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

A. B. C. D. E.

$SPX just printed all five waves of the triangle.

W4 done. W5 LIVE.

Clear this week's high, the breakout runs to 7700–8000.

Close below 7392 and it's a bearish triangle instead.

W5 starts now.

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

Mark my words.

Bitcoin will close the FVG at $67K.

Then the real move begins.

Here is how Bitcoin plays out from here:

- Rally to $67K
- 10–14 days of distribution
- Dump below $58K
- Flush to $47K
- Final bottom test in the $37K–$45K zone

Most people think the bear market is over.

The final capitulation phase has not even started.

Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.

The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Support held. Not bearish yet and all time highs shall come. If it holds again on Monday then it’s rocket mode. A close below 739 on Monday will bring 720s again.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Welp, got that call wrong this morning. Worst part is at open my gut told me to buy some 750C but my eyes told me wait for confirmation because of the put gex.
Anyway net gamma is now solidly positive so I wouldn't expect the pullback from overbought here to be any deeper than 748-749. We do that and then get back above 750 then 755 is now on the table.

Keep in mind, a close below 746.77 today is very bearish for next week. Otherwise we are back to my original case where we make a new ath before July OpEx.

[Michael Bento @MichaelPBento]

Today's close on $SPY has shaken my bullish to July OpEx thesis. The daily kicked out an inside day with a long wick doji, also giving us a possible evening star setup. It also looks like there was a clean rejection of 746.77 which was a must hold level. The hourly looks like it wants to give some relief with the stochastic nearing the bottom of its range, however it's not there yet. MOC was very negative today with a sell side of -2.118BLN.
Gamma on the other hand continues to see 750 as the big level with call gex. Net gamma for tomorrow's expiration remains positive, but barely. However, all expiries gamma is now squarely negative despite starting the day firmly positive. The put wall at 745 must hold tomorrow or we could see selling pressure increase.

Overall my take here is the bull case tomorrow is a gap down open that takes the hourly stochastic into oversold and gives enough energy for SPY to rally through the day. If 746.77 is reclaimed I can see a run at 750 on low volume.
The bear case comes into focus if 746.77 can't be reclaimed. Then I see a strong probability of a pullback next week. If that pullback takes out the 6/26 low then the market may be in trouble as it will have made a 3rd consecutive lower low after making a 3rd consecutive lower high. That's a confirmed downtrend. On the other hand if it only makes it back to 725.50 then a potential inverse head and shoulders is in play.

Keep in mind NFP is tomorrow morning, and it could be a tricky print to play because good numbers mean higher rates, which can cause additional selling.

[Bassem @Basssem666]

$SPY Still expecting a bullish July and new all time highs as long as price keeps closing above 738. We may get another dip but it’ll be bought like the one in the morning.