MarketFodder

10+ years on the buyside. Industrials/Energy/Consumer. Not investment advice.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

The four most dangerous words in investing: this time it’s different.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@awealthofcs The same reason religion or socialism become popular as inequality expands: hope.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Suspect majority of workers could use productivity gains to work less vs grow output.

[John Huber @JohnHuber72]

Torsten Slok had a good post this morning on why labor productivity is an incomplete picture.
We can get more work done if we're given AI tools, but how much capital was invested into the tool?
If 100 workers produce 10,000 widgets and they receive a machine that allows them to produce 15,000 widgets, labor productivity rose 50%.
The question is what does the machine cost?

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Move over UBXXZERO and $ARKK, there's a new profitless tech proxy in town ($QQQ)

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING NEWS: $NBIS, $RKLB, $CRWV and $ALAB are joining the Nasdaq 100.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@compound248 Anything quality housing tricky. A lot of businesses benefitted from 60 year bull market in rates. Think a lot of mults bleed lower as that reverses for next 30 years.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@compound248 $VLTO - 60% gross margins, 6% unlevered fcf yield growing eps ldd

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Feels like a lot of crude levered equities ($XLE, $XLB) underestimating the convexity in commodity prices here. People afraid to step in front of a Trump tweet but every day this drags on probably 2-3x multiplier on time to return to a "balanced" market.

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

August Brent quietly about to make new highs...

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@breadcrumbsre Depends on business cyclicality but in commodities the correct answer is hoard cash to buy capacity in the next down cycle from companies that overextend themselves.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Time to fade the LTLs again. Market back to pricing in a COVID stimulus + yellow bk up cycle, for what feels like the tenth time in the last 4 years.

$ODFL, $XPO, $SAIA

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Crazy move in transports. $ODFL, $SAIA both need to double EPS in the next 3 years to justify the re-rating over the past month. Only two periods in the last 20 years where rev growth and margin improvement were that material over a 3 year period: post '08 crisis and post COVID stimulus. Good luck.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@insane_analyst $BE probably a lot like the neoclouds. When we go long power, goes to 0.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@matthew_sigel

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@John_Hempton https://t.co/JShm5PVBWG

This is pretty good breakdown

Customer acquisition cost a big issue in US vs RoW

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@ValueStockGeek Household income looks way too high

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@fundiescapital Tell that to $GEV and $ENR.GY

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@RealJimChanos +1.7bn in tax equity. IRR is infinite when the denominator is 0.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@mastersinvest @TheEconomist Bad example. Lithium demand is growing double digits…

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@JerryCap HVAC inventories pretty concerning especially in softening housing macro.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Is the tide turning?

https://t.co/UbL8CA0S24

[FT Energy @ftenergy]

How AI might save more energy than it soaks up https://t.co/aSFuzJrSeN

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Once upon a time, IPP terminal value was 0 bc of renewables/ESS, now they are secular growth stories bc of the insatiable power demand for AI. Wild how far the pendulum has swung. Going to be epic shorts when generalists realize that nat gas drives power prices. $NRG, $VST, $CEG

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

Also pretty high cognitive dissonance here imo. Power demand hasn’t grown in 20 years. But demand for this powerful productivity technology is going to change that. But don’t worry, it won’t lower costs / create efficiency in the power markets. Just everywhere else.

[MarketFodder @MarketFodder]

@Lars57360069 @rev_cap @WarrenPies Agree. 2-3 election cycles away barring some material change in longevity science.