Keith Finkelstein, CMT

Founder of MarketStrats, a fee-only financial planning and investment management firm.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Warsh warming up... rate hike fully priced in by next March

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 Reporting Highest Revenue Growth Since 2022 @factset

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US…
1970s: 8.9%
1980s: 12.7%
1990s: 8.1%
2000s: 6.3%
2010s: 4.1%
2020s: 5.3%
---
All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65%
2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79%
Today's Rate: 6.30%

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 is having a huge April, up more than 9% right now.

10 other times in history it gained >5%.

May was higher 9 of those times and both the Sell in May (May - Oct) period and the rest of the year were up substantially better than the average returns.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Wondering which month is the best time to start investing?
The right answer is any month. Just start!

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

It took 3.5 years for this bull market to double, a tad faster than normal.

Did you know after previous bull markets doubled they had another three years on average left?

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The 44% decline in the $VIX over the last 3 weeks was the 5th biggest volatility crash in history.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

S&P 500 has a real shot at closing up 3% for three consecutive weeks.

This has only happened twice in history. At the '82 lows and after COVID. Stocks were up 33.9% and 32.3% a year later after those signals.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 is up 9.83% the past 10 trading days, for the best 10 day gain since coming off the COVID lows in March 2020.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 moved to positive on the yr and is now only 1.32% away from a new all-time high.

After an incredible 9 month win streak, we saw a perfectly normal 9.1% mild correction. They happen most yrs.

We've said for yrs now we are in a bull market and this is still the case.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Extremely stable interest rates the last 3 years @yardeni

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it

But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy

A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and 30%:

https://t.co/iIhxLqzSjf

[Subu Trade @SubuTrade]

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday.

Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500.

Will this time be different?

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

The median midterm year drawdown is 15.6% .. S&P 500 1950-2022

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

Some definitions:

-5% = pullback
-10% = healthy correction
-15% = correction
-20% = bear market
-30% = collapse
-40% = crash
-50% = crisis

A short history of stock market pullbacks:

https://t.co/heElZy41sV

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

$QQQ -9.4% from its record close... not a big decline compared to history... @Koyfincharts

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

On 4/9 last year the S&P 500 was up 9.5% in a single day on the Liberation Day TACO

I'm convinced that one day is the only reason markets haven't gone down more on the war/oil crisis

Everyone who wants to be bearish is terrified of that scenario

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

The S&P 500 is 5.9% from its 52-week high.

The median S&P 500 stock drawdown is 16.6%.

And that's very normal. Don't let anyone tell you it's somehow bearish or indicative of extra risk in the market.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The clock for a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) started last week.

Only 2% of all these signals go from oversold (like now) to overbought within 10 days (triggering a signal). But those that do tend to suggest the bulls are back. April '25 last time we saw one.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 futures lowest since before Thanksgiving, unchanged back to mid-September... drawdown reaches 5%