I’m confused by those who say Iran will not engage in negotiations because they have leverage. What else is leverage for?
Right now, Trump will pay to get the strait reopened, hence the US putting sanctions relief right on the table.
But there is a limit to what he can pay. If Iran tries to extract a pound of flesh in the form of an over loss us credibility, then Trump will find accepting the deep economic costs of of an extended closure of the straight, likely blockaded to Iranian oil as well, as his least bad option.
Once that decision is made, Iran’s leverage dissipates, and they find themselves fighting the entire world, with no hope of ever exiting the status of a pariah regime.
Alternatively, a deal with Trump, even an imperfect one from Iran‘s perspective, provides the regime with an imprimatur of international respectability, not to mention access to desperately needed hard currency.
Inspired by the debate between @nfergus and @adam_tooze on the current state of globalisation, I devoted my lecture at Columbia this week to take the pulse on global value chains:
"Global value chains under the shadow of Covid"
https://t.co/Mc1KjWLKMQ
#AltData Weekly has been published
Theme: the more regulators learn about alt data, the better defined compliance needs will be, increasing the comfort level industry participants have w using new sources of information
https://t.co/KwwxGZBeUR
@markfw1@DollarEagle @sigtechltd
This is almost unbelievable…
The MSCI China Index total return (ignoring any fees, taxes, etc…) since its 12/31/92 inception is approaching a 0% nominal cumulative return
China is 30% of $EEM
PUTIN STEP BY STEP
I was sent this interesting paper that also argues that Putin is following a step-by-step plan to ratchet up pressure on west & Ukraine to get his security deal, which is what i think is going on.
https://t.co/YABFAdHtDm
a short thread....
.@ZelenskyyUa's tv address to the Russian (!) people might be the most moving speech that I've ever seen in my entire life. The whole world needs to see, understand and share this crucial Ukrainian message.
#StandWithUkraine#Ukraine#Україна#Russia#Россия
⭐️ ⭐️ INTERACT 2.0 Speaker Announcement ⭐️ ⭐️
We are delighted to announce “International Data Landscape: Understanding the Meaningful Trends of Non-U.S. Datasets" will be moderated by Mark Fleming-Williams of Exabel.
Register here: https://t.co/t8FNVEYucE
#AlternativeData
Drones raining from the sky in Zhengzhou 😬
Word on the street is that a rival drone company that lost the bid interfered to overwhelm the drones nav system!