Kyle Lee

Current Holdings include: $BTC $IREN

Disclaimer: All opinions and thoughts are for entertainment, they are not financial advice.

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

ONE HUNDRED TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS FOR ONE MAGICAL LINE OF INTERNET CODE "MONEY" 🚀

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@amitisinvesting Neat. When's the next one in US or EU?

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@FransBakker9812 @danroberts0101 @kentpdraper What are the 3 locations in Spain?

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

(1) https://t.co/8HEHiSt5hg
(2) https://t.co/z6z99XLBej
(3) https://t.co/ySb2Jkca8y
(4) https://t.co/KdP1xRKDhd
(5) https://t.co/Nq6LtmcHRD
(6) https://t.co/x4La2WIDh2
(7) https://t.co/Au18wfD4no

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@ty_kimx @cjc Jagalchi in Busan or Daly City?

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

1. You need see all the NBIS and AI ads in the Bay Area. AI ads is a crowded place in SF.
2. GSW is good product placement as they still continue to be popular for a couple more years.
3. Sorry Jim, we investors dont care about devs (except for Jim ofc). We care about the execs for to make the deal.
4. NVDA needs IREN and NBIS and CRWV for sales and distribution. They only care about neoclouds so they can sell their product. How does any company do sales and distribution? Through marketing and word of mouth.

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 You had me at guac

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 NVDA - who dat?

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@BitcoinAIGuy @bitcoinbutcher1 8 months since the last deal. Whew.

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@DeepValueBagger Yikes

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@jiahanjimliu @BitcoinAIGuy It makes your 3am - 4am time block way more productive though 🤣

Congrats again. Parenthood is a fun ride.

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@jiahanjimliu @BitcoinAIGuy Congrats Jim!!! Just wait till sleep deprivation kicks in 😅😅😅

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@jratcliff @WhiteHouse Air Force

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@LynAldenContact Red Sea is best diving in the world. Im sure the Mediterranean over there is also nice. Will need to do some DD now!

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@chamath What data centers are you in Chamath?

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@FransBakker9812 Im a good soldier 😅

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

Appreciate the response.

The key question is this:

Where does the money for the yield come from?

Strategy has no meaningful source of revenue compared to their assets and obligations.

So the bill is stuck with MSTR holders, either in the form of dilution via issuing more shares or selling BTC... either of which effectively reduce BPS.

And I understand they have no near term maturities... but ~$6.7B of the convertible debt has put dates only 15-27 months out with strike prices well out of the money.

The put dates are what matter when the strike price is OTM.

Strategy has depended on this type of debt converting to common shares in the past, which means that ~$6.7B wouldn't be an issue.

But as the premium is compressed and common continues to get diluted via MSTR issuance / BTC sales, it makes it more and more difficult to see appreciation to those strikes.

So there is another ~$6.7B of cash on top of the $1.7B+ of annual dividends that needs to be accounted for.

So again - where does the money come from?

Technically they could suspend dividend payments (which means they still accrue, not that they disappear), but that destroys trust in the narrative for the largest vehicle they've used to raise capital for BTC purchases the last year.

STRC / STRF most likely would see a substantial selloff during any major suspension along with the bleeding we're already seeing in STRD / STRK.

And if you're unable to pay your dividends and have a large bill for the puts waiting for you, good luck raising via more convertibles.

So if they're not willing to sell Bitcoin, that $26B MSTR ATM program they approved in March is the best / only real vehicle they have left...

And raising cash that goes toward obligations rather than Bitcoin purchases is purely dilutive to MSTR holders.

Could Bitcoin go up from here and delay this type of unwind?

Definitely.

It could possibly even climb enough to see MSTR appreciate enough to reduce some of the cash burden for the convertible debt prior to the put dates.

But it just means the same structural weakness exists - in the prefs, and in whatever new convertibles they issue along the way - on a larger scale, at a later date.

It defers the risk. It doesn't delete it.

But that's also a huge if.

If we see another leg lower - the impact of sales to fund any of the obligations above has a much more severe dilutive impact on the BPS for MSTR holders.

I honestly don't know the perfect answer for what they should do to protect shareholder value.

My best guess is the most prudent thing to do would be to sell a large position of Bitcoin now, buy any discounted prefs that they can that may result from the panic of that sale, and reduce their debt and future obligations.

Don't think they're dead in the water - but the flywheel is showing real signs of weakness and they'll inevitably be forced to make some difficult choices moving forward.

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@TylerDurden December 2018

[Kyle Lee @masterkyle13]

@bitcoinbutcher1 @mikealfred They were selling Tomahawk cuts at Costco for MDW at $18/lb. I bought 5 at 2 pounds each, and they were sooooo delicious 🥩