MVI

#YYC

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

KUWAIT TO MULL INCREASED INTERNATIONAL OIL STORAGE AFTER WAR

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Iran's Fars News Agency reported on Thursday that the country allowed approximately 30 vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with "Iranian management protocols". The identity of all vessels has not been released, @Kpler identified transit of 11 vessels, including 5 LPG tankers and 2 VLCC crude tankers. #OOTT #Iran #Hormuz

[MVI @matt_v_i]

Feels like potential escalation before de-escalation. We are closer to end than the beginning and the market will react accordingly.

[MVI @matt_v_i]

Feels like potential escalation before de-escalation. We are closer to end than the beginning and the market will react accordingly.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

It looks like Iran is left with only two choices: sit back and watch the US Navy escort ships through the strait, losing all their leverage, or respond militarily to protect it.

The former would gut their bargaining power, while the latter gives the US and Israel the perfect excuse to restart hostile military operations.

We all know what Iran is going to choose. The moment their speedboats fire a shot, US and the IDF will drop the missiles.

Tbh i think Washington played this one pretty smart. They’ve set the bait perfectly.

#oott #iran

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

STATEMENT ISSUED BY 22 COUNTRIES, INCLUDING THE UAE AND BAHRAIN: WE EXPRESS OUR READINESS TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE APPROPRIATE EFFORTS TO ENSURE SAFE PASSAGE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The US gov seems to have changed its mind about the terms of the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:

Earlier this week, it announced a **SPR release** (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of 1991, 2005, 2011 and 2022)

But now, the DOE has published details for something different: a **SPR exchange** (effectively, an oil loan, with the barrels returned later with interest)

[Steve Guest @SteveGuest]

WATCH: Secretary of Energy Chris Wright calls out the International Energy Agency for focusing on Net Zero 2050:

"We need to have the IEA focused on energy data and bettering lives. Every report has a Net Zero 2050 case in it. There is a 0.0 chance of the world hitting Net Zero 2050, 0.0%.

Wright also says:

"This organization has been pushed off course, and for 5 years, published energy scenarios going forward, none of which had any relevance to reality. They were all just based on climate ambitions, politics, local domestic politics."

"If the European industrial powers want to continue to become forward industrial powers, that's your choice. I don't think it's a great choice, but that is your choice, but that is politics. If the European industrial powers want to continue to become forward industrial powers, that's your choice. I don't think it's a great choice, but that is your choice, but that is politics. That's not relevant to the global energy system, or to better people's lives. 
We need to have the IEA focused on energy data and bettering lives."

Wright: "We need to have the IEA focused on energy data and bettering lives. Every report has a Net Zero 2050 case in it. There is a 0.0 chance of the world hitting Net Zero 2050, 0.0%. .... 
The attempt to do it has only had one impact. 
It's we've spent over $10 trillion to add 2.6% of global energy from wind, solar batteries, and all the extra transmission infrastructure combined. And everywhere it's deployed, in reasonable penetration rates, it's developed higher electricity prices. We've seen in the U.S. Every state within a renewable portfolio standard, on average, 50% higher electricity prices then the other states that didn't adopt that. 
We don't want to move industries out of Europe. We don't want to make life more expensive and impoverish people. We don't want to have 2 million people still dying because they don't have clean cooking fuel. 
We want to better energize the world. That's what IEA was founded for. That's what we want the IEA to do going forward. 
And I want to get the other support of all the nations in this noble organization to work with us to push the IEA to drop the climate, hat's political stuff. Let that be done at the government level. This organization should be about energy, energy security, and improving lives."

Wright: "Together, we could move the organization and must move the organization back to what energy should always be about, which is humans and math. We only produce energy to better people's lives. The United States is all in on this trajectory."

[MVI @matt_v_i]

That didn’t take long

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP: IF CANADA MAKES A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT WILL IMMEDIATELY BE HIT WITH A 100% TARIFF AGAINST ALL CANADIAN GOODS AND PRODUCTS COMING INTO U.S.A

[MVI @matt_v_i]

@Oliver_Trpcic Looking at Cdn Heavy production throughout Covid, being landlocked with minimal egress for a decade prior and achieving -40diffs, all while growing production would suggest Cdn grade isn’t going anywhere. As mentioned Econs are better importing Cdn grade closer to home.

[MVI @matt_v_i]

Can someone explain why my x feed is full of doom over Canadian Oil Sector with the Venezuela takeover going on? I get it Canadian Oil Produces Heavy Sour, Venezuela also produces a similar grade…. But can you tell me how BP Whiting or any PADD II refinery can import that bbl?

[MVI @matt_v_i]

@Oliver_Trpcic “Used to” is the key here as it used to be a formidable option. The refining complex in PADD II has taken large steps and rerouted pipelines and increased capacities on Enbridge mainline to make Cdn Heavy the strong preference to refineries in the region.

[MVI @matt_v_i]

PADD III importing less than 200kbpd of Cdn Heavy for consumption, while westridge ramps, Asian destined Heavy econs seems to be the more relevant pricing mechanisms for Cdn heavy these days. Perhaps Cdn. Should focus on its diversification plan. #oott #energy #oilandgas

[MVI @matt_v_i]

I understand that the LT supply for Global Heavy could be on the rise & eventually that could be bearish heavy diffs at the margin but that’s seems a bit out the curve. What I will say is this should increase gulfcoast Naphtha demand &should support Cdn C5+ in the short run

[Criterion Research @PipelineFlows]

PJM gas burns continued to push higher on the thermal mix, with the coal drops outpacing gas declines amidst low load requirements this week.

For More Analysis - https://t.co/3qz4wvUoEr

#natgas #power #ongt

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

#China's new crude import quotas to boost seaborne inflows by year-end after destocking
#oott
https://t.co/tAgX8thSiL

[MVI @matt_v_i]

Canada best get their affairs in order get moving on incremental export capacity. It’s not a matter of if but when.

[Dan Tsubouchi @Energy_Tidbits]

Something to think about for those, like me, who see increasing probability Rubio/Trump will force Maduro out one way or another.

IF so and IF they allow oil capital to return to Venezuela, then there is material upside potential for increasing VEN oil production and therefore oil to US Gulf Coast refineries.

Mid-term risk to Cdn #Oil if VEN oil returns in size to Gulf Coast.

Cdn #Oil only really increased to Gulf Coast refineries in 2013 that coincided with reducing VEN and MEX oil into the Gulf Coast.

#oott

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

OIL MARKET: @EIAgov also revised June demand sharply higher, pegging it now at 21.007m b/d. That's 607k b/d higher than the initial 20.4m b/d (calculated using weekly data). Gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel all revised up.

It's the highest demand for any month of June since 2005.

[MVI @matt_v_i]

@Rory_Johnston Trickiest part is when the music stops in China 🇨🇳 what does Saudi & OPEC do….

[MVI @matt_v_i]

@hkuppy Refinery turnarounds coming, demand for products remain strong, low seasonal US inventories while crude overhang looms on paper balances. Crude 🔻products➡️ = crack ⬆️

[MVI @matt_v_i]

Something @usainbolt never said.. #GOAT 🐐

[Travis Miller @travismillerx13]

🇺🇸Noah Lyles continues to feel confident in his progression despite a bad start in the #LausanneDL 100m.