I spent some time today digging into the voting-center level results recently posted by the Venezuelan opposition (https://t.co/xGv7PLghit)
1) Their dataset has ~81% coverage - doing some modeling to extrapolate the data they collected to the rest of the country, I'm estimating that the Opposition got 66% of the vote compared to 32% for Maduro.
2) Unsurprisingly, the ~20% of missing precincts are modeled to be substantially more supportive of Maduro (Opposition +19) than the precincts they did collect (Opposition + 37) and also are quite a bit smaller, lending some credence to the data generation process. Even if Maduro won all of the votes in these precincts the opposition still would win easily.
3) The opposition saw it's largest gains in lower-income precincts that went strongly for Maduro in 2013, winning ~2/3rds of precincts that Maduro won eleven years ago
4) It's hard to "prove" that a set of election results are real - but having spent a decent amount of time doing regressions on the results, they show the same kind of complex relationships with previous election results and demographics that I have seen in American elections, in a way that I think would be pretty difficult to replicate out of thin air.
For ~$5 million, we could have invested in the most significant new strategy to prevent and end homelessness for young adults in the Commonwealth. https://t.co/FEwIjnEMRW
I know its not that straightforward, but it really is that straightforward. Invest in our young people!
๐๏ธโจJoin NCH's Executive Director @DWhitehead2020 on The Jefferson Exchange as he sheds light on the underlying causes of homelessness. Tune in now, and let's work together toward meaningful change. ๐๐ https://t.co/dBf8xOpMbN
#EndHomelessness#Homeless#Homelessness
House Republicans are fighting - right now! - to further decimate affordable housing and homelessness programs! #CutsHurt. Take action TODAY: https://t.co/IQUMbns61m
@SteveKornacki@MSNBC Back of the envelope calculation is that @SenCortezMasto needs 55% of the remaining vote (136,594 votes to win by 1 vote) assuming that Lexalt gets the remainder (113997). 1) Does that sound right, and 2) is that possible given where the remaining votes are?
@LeGateauChoc@RakieAyola@SuellaBraverman Love this response. Frustrated by ignorant coopting and use of language that presents as serious but is anything but. Let's have the courage to say exactly what we mean and then engage in meaningful conversation.
@mbarrbosa@impactMarket_ Thanks! On their website right now. Let me know if it makes sense to chat, specifically about its application in the world of youth and young adult homelessness in the US.
Really important to understand about cash assistance. While the evidence is overwhelming that recipients spend the assistance on their most pressing needs (i.e., don't "waste" money in the frame presented by most critics), everyone is entitled to fun, irreverence, and joy.
An @OaklandFamilies participant describes experiences enabled by a #guaranteedincome. She rejects punitive narratives on cash assistance, โA tiny amount, 4% goes to fun. Thatโs OK, because people experiencing poverty are also entitled to joy in life.โ https://t.co/ZtKcVlXpDi
New research from @YourBuddyDan and @maggiesu0725 shows that laws to prevent voucher discrimination help families access higher opportunity neighborhoods.
But it takes 5 years after laws are passed for them to reverse patterns of discrimination.
https://t.co/JZ3BUmsFEq
@ProjectNEEDbh Thanks for the retweet! Let us know how we can help bring it to your next of the woods. It will take a movement, but the movement is growing!
@elonmusk Please fund our direct cash transfer projects to prevent and end youth homelessness in America. Promise less drama and better returns than Twitter. https://t.co/Ydx7KzTqjx
@mhmorton You are and have always been an amazing partner in this work. Thank you for your support throughout the readiness phase! We hope readers see you and your team well represented in the report!