M. Wein

National Security expert; Wein Strategy Lab consulting; Secure Stakes newsletter. Views expressed are my own. Go Gators.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

I broke down what this means for integrity professionals — and why the industry needs its own AI misuse benchmark — in Secure Stakes today.

https://t.co/qdwcgkOTTz

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

If AI can help terrorists plan attacks, can it help match-fixers plan a fix?

A new @techvsterrorism benchmark tested 27 AI models against ~2,500 misuse prompts. About 1/3 of responses gave operational help despite safety guardrails.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

That's the same playbook a market manipulator could use on a prediction market or sportsbook. Sports betting and prediction market operators should assume this capability already exists in the wild.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

When fans lose faith that teams, leagues, sportsbooks and others are keeping pace to keep games fair there are many downstream impacts.

https://t.co/qTcSM3K06A

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

USA TODAY took a closer look at the ongoing Brendan Sorsby saga, and I was happy to add my expertise.

The Sorsby case was a fast moving story that seemed to change week to week if not day to day. And governance structures have not been keeping up.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

@DustinGouker The timing is odd too-- mid tournament.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

@DavidPurdum I think this is a great first step but the better option is to start sharing this information across sports books, teams, leagues, and others. I'm actually talking about this exact topic @NCS4usm annual conference this morning!

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

Well that is interesting...

[Siqi Chen @blader]

something happened an hour ago that made fable 5's chances of coming back next week go from 15% to 60%

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

@RossDellenger @YahooSports Is Sorsby a member of the NFLPA?

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

Nice catch by @SeamusHughes in today's CourtWatch.

The @CMEGroup sued the @CFTC for allowing perpetual markets specifically calling out @Kalshi bitcoin perps. I'm not a lawyer but this seems to open perhaps another legal front against prediction markets?

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

The prediction market platforms themselves push how their product should be used by policy makers to inform decision making. As we get closer to election day, I can see news sites with agreements with Polymarket using their data keying in on this market to use in their reporting

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

Every once in a while I take a spin around the prediction market platforms to see if I happen upon something interesting-- a market, a price trend, a new feature.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

I can think of several scenarios in which an adversary, or someone else with malicious aims, might want to drive the price up and make it seem as if the public thinks the President might take this step.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

So why do teams and leagues resist information sharing?It's not enough to share after something bad happens. Entities across the sports ecosystem need to learn from the mistakes that government made and work together to secure their sites, fans, athletes, officials, and more.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

Over the course of the day since Director Patel announced the arrests more details have come out about the alleged plot targeted the UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House. One particular detail stood out to me.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

In the Fox News report they not only mention that 23 individuals were in a chat group planning the attack, but that the investigation included efforts from 12 FBI offices, the U.S. Secret Service, and State and Local law enforcement. No one entity could do it alone.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

In Secure Stakes today, I dive into the @Kalshi Independent Market Integrity Committee's first ever quarterly report. The good, the bad, and what might come next. You can read it and subscribe here:

https://t.co/CRhq16qP1O

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

If you care about the governance layer of “betting on information” — from insider trading controls to cross‑sport surveillance — this one is for you.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

It certainly is well timed to coincide with the start of the match. We'll see if more details come out in the days ahead. And it is exactly why events like this need to take the new risks associated with security, gambling, and information operations seriously.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

I shared several integrity-related warnings ahead of the UFC 250 fight in my Secure Stakes newsletter and on my account here. And now one angle seems to be playing out.

[M. Wein @mattjwein]

Former UFC fighter Daniel Cormier tweeted screen shots of alleged DMs he received from Eric Trump looking for inside information. The tweets have now been deleted and it isn't clear whether Cormier actually tweeted them or if the images were fabricated and his account hacked.