מסכים עם כל מילה. רק הייתי מוסיף שגם עם כל היוזמה והחוצפה הישראלית, לא כל אחד הוא יזם פוטנציאלי ולחץ שלילי על מקצועות טכניים או צווארון לבן אחרות שיעלמו מחברות גדולות - סביר שיצור גריעה בסופו של דבר בכמות המועסקים ולכן גם הכנסות המס של המדינה ויותר מזה עלול ליצור מיתון רחב בשוק הממוצע בזמן שחברות רבות בשיא הרווחיות שלהם.
7. How can you structure this as explicitly not a “one way door” so that as new data comes out you can course correct or even reverse the plan?
8. What support you need from community/family/professionals ?
Life design 🧵:
(Bookmark this and work with your favorite AI to explore this and turn into an action plan:
1. What contributes to good balanced nervous system (eg for me exercise, living in nature, family time etc)
2. How can you redesign your life to maximize these conditions by default (not on vacation)
1/n
How to prepare for the Singularity
1) Find a reasonable belief why superintelligent AI won't exterminate us (If you can't become a doomer).
2) Position yourself in a safe environment for the chaotic transition period.
3) Live a healthy life. Healthy body, healthy mind.
4) Build trusted network of people you can rely on and vice versa.
5) Stockpile necessary goods for extended period of time (3 months to a year). Peace of mind.
6) Write prayers (blueprint) for your ideal future online for the superintelligent AI to read.
The goal is to fight anxiety. Think clearly. Avoid people who can't as they will be your main threat. Advocate for the future you can believe in. Take care of your loved ones and don't be consumed by fear.
5. What are the admin, financial, logistical, social, professional plans you need to start working on to enable this?
6. Do the key people in your life understand and support this? How can this life redesign come as a positive and agreed upon change rather than a scary or abrupt thing?
3/n
This is very big deal imho. Karpathy has no reason to take a job anywhere unless he truly believes this is THE place to unlock ASI. Major win for anthropic.
Most companies are trying to replace workers with AI. Data says real leverage is replacing tasks. If you're not auditing workflows to identify that specific 40% of repetitive work, you're just adding cost, not capability. https://t.co/w6dVGt1UwQ
🚨 Do you understand what happened in the last 12 hours?
> A CEO of a $200 billion company said on camera that 35% of new grads won't find jobs. He didn't even flinch saying it.
> Meta made $165 billion last year and is still firing 15,000 people because apparently record profit isn't profitable enough.
> Some random guy in Florida sold his entire house in 5 days using ChatGPT. No real estate agent, no commission, no experience. Just vibes and a $20 subscription.
> A man in Australia cured his dying dog's cancer with AI after every single vet told him there was nothing left to do. Built a custom vaccine from his couch.
> The guy who created Uber and left 300,000 taxi drivers broke is back. Building robots now because apparently ruining one industry wasn't enough.
> Tinder wants access to your camera roll. Your drunk photos, your 3am notes app meltdowns, your deleted selfies. They're calling it a "vibe check."
> Naval, the man who made hundreds of millions investing in software, just said software is dead. Four words and the entire industry felt it.
> And Anthropic removed the limit on how long their AI can think and then doubled everyone's usage for free. Because when the product is addictive enough you give the first taste away.
All of that happened today. Not this week, not this quarter. Today. A random Saturday in March.
This is worse than you being on meth.
The token cost to build a production feature is now lower than the meeting cost to discuss building that feature.
Let me rephrase.
It is literally cheaper to build the thing and see if it works than to have a 30 minute planning meeting about whether you should build it.
It’s wild when you think about it.
This completely inverts how you should run a software organization. The planning layer becomes the bottleneck because the building layer is essentially free. The cost of code has dropped to essentially 0.
The rational response is to eliminate planning for anything that can be tested empirically. Don’t debate whether a feature will work.
Just build it in 2 hours, measure it with a group of customers, and then decide to kill or keep it.
I saw a startup operating this way and their build velocity is up 20x. Decision quality is up because every decision is informed by a real prototype, not a slide deck and an expensive meeting.
We went from “move fast and break things” to “move fast and build everything.”
The planning industrial complex is dead.
Thank god.
Holy sh*t: The TIMES article about Anthropic contains more serious information between the lines than many realize. Read this article:
tl;dr
- Model releases are now separated by weeks, not months. Some 70% to 90% of the code used in developing future models is now written by Claude.
- Anthropic ended up holding up the release of the new model, known as Claude 3.7 Sonnet, for 10 days until they were certain.
- Staff believe the next few years will be a pivotal test, for the company and the world. “We should operate as if 2026 to 2030 is where all the most important things happen—models becoming faster, better, possibly faster than humans can handle them,” says Graham.
- Dario Amodei has warned that AI could displace half of entry-level white collar jobs in one to five years, and urged the government and other AI companies to stop “sugar-coating” it. (...) “It is not clear where these people will go or what they will do,” he wrote, “and I am concerned that they could form an unemployed or very-low-wage ‘underclass.
- Internally, employees began to question if Anthropic had crept to the cusp of the moment they had anticipated with fear and wonder: the arrival of a process known in AI circles as recursive self-improvement.
- Some external experts, believes fully automated AI research could be as little as a year away.