In the past three years, I made several successful investment decisions:
1. I sold my $TSLA shares at $270 and $310 at a loss of US$4 million in 2022 after conducting technical analysis and predicting a decline.
2. I sold all my $BABA shares at a small loss, when they were trading between $220 and $250.
3. I sold all my China and Hong Kong stocks, including $JD, $FUTU, and $BYD, HKEX, TENCENT, METUAN when the Hang Seng Index(HSI) was between 22000 and 25000.
4. I started investing in $NVDA at $15.2 in January 2023 and continued adding until it reached $50.4, in spite of market noises telling me that the AI cycle was over.
5. I began investing in $PLTR at $8.8 and completed my accumulation at $21.9, immune to all market noises from the so-called analysts.
6. I started investing in Bitcoin-related stocks like $MSTR at $280, $COIN at $130, and $HOOD below $10.
However, I made some mistakes in the past year:
1. I did not trade or sell my miners, $MARA and $CLSK, when they were at high levels earlier this year, despite having purchased them at single-digit prices.
2. I started accumulating small-cap stocks in February 2024 instead of last year when they were much cheaper. I was a bit late to the small cap party (held last year)
3. I thought that China stocks might be bottoming out in March but in fact they take longer than we expected
From these experiences, I learned several important lessons:
1. It's crucial not to go all-in on one or two stocks. The winner takes it all but of course can lose it all.
2. Always maintain a diversified portfolio, including small-cap and big-tech stocks, with appropriate allocation percentages.
3. Cut losses when you feel the risks are overwhelming, as capital preservation is essential for future opportunities.
4. Sharing losses is not shameful; it can be a blessing to others, helping them avoid the same mistakes and learn from your experiences.
5. Avoid selling stocks cheaply at the start of a bullish cycle and buying in bulk during the last phase of the cycle.
6. Ignore market noise on social media, as it's often driven by non-experts who repeat the same themes, such as recession and inverted yield curves. Bearish markets tend to set in when these themes are no longer harped upon.
7. Always set realistic targets. Setting unrealistic targets, like $500 for $NVDA $28,000 for $TSLA or a million for Bitcoin, does not help with your own trading and investment strategies. Between now and 2030-2032, there will likely be at least 1-2 bearish markets. The market always provides opportunities to buy. A step-by-step review is what we need.
8. Keep your ego in check. Trading and investing should be emotion-free. Focus on the accumulation patterns of large investors (whales) rather than relying on your own convictions because they don't care how we think.
9. To ask people to wait patiently till 2030-2032 doesn't make sense at all. Not all of us are investors, and I realize that many do not even like to hold stocks for 3 months, let alone 6-8 years.
As I've been warning, we are still early in the biggest #bond market crash in U.S. history. Every government, corporation, landlord, and family that has been relying on cheap debt to survive will die. When the #Fed tries to save their lives, it will kill them with #inflation.