Mike McLaren

Building @releaffinance 🚀 MGI Group; @cryptowyze; ex-GC @stitchmoneyhq; Angel Squad @hustlefundvc; ex-CEO @gloverapp; founder @allunstitched! DM’s welcome!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@elonmusk Hemingway said it best: gradually then suddenly…

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@mdudas This 👆

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@amasad You can say that again!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@amasad Brilliant @amasad

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@NikMilanovic @FNN_HQ This is cool! And a huge announcement. Congrats @NikMilanovic

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@VinnyLingham 👏

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@garrytan @ycombinator Yup, the incremental value of adding each additional agent yields compounded returns on our total output!!!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@patrickc Yes!!!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@alliekmiller Yet nobody has yet solved World Peace 😋

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@NWischoff A huge amount to day on this, but they’re all still pretty rudimentary in reality and it’s telling that in 80%+ of cases they’re used exclusively as online shopping companions. But there is a lot of opportunity building this application layer.

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@bindureddy 💯

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@paulg You can say that again!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@Jason Ooof, don’t tell Saylor 😂

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@amasad Love that description @amasad

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@HarryStebbings 💯 open models. I agree that there will always be a case for frontier, but those will be more niche and more exclusive over time. So on balance - and to answer your specific question - the majority of tokens will flow through open models.

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

Love this by @sweatystartup - always good for a laugh, but there is always a lot of thought and truth behind his posts 👏

[Nick Huber @sweatystartup]

My predictions over the following months:

1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips.

Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble.

The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive.

2. Power is the bottleneck.

AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water.

The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months.

3. Subsidies are skewing the market.

AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain.

You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale.

When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag.

3. A big security breach is coming.

A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world.

People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming.

4. Grokbot is exceptional.

Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant.

5. AI is insanely high maintenance

Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips.

The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months.

Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess.

6. The power companies will renege on their deals.

Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated.

Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice:

Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins.

7. Credit will be the first domino to fall.

Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money.

The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over.

8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets.

The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win.

The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win.

The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth.

--

Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@HarryStebbings Because your agent has now become the default to write the story for you… sad!!! But true.

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@theallinpod @DavidSacks Sacks is the best version of himself when he’s silent.

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

@sytaylor It’s a 5-year-old. You can’t in good conscience swear at a 5-year-old…

[Mike McLaren @mb_mclaren]

So true!!!

[Amjad Masad @amasad]

What’s happening in the AI-powered reverse engineering and decompilation is absolutely insane. Pretty soon all software will be de facto open-source.

AI is coming for everything and everyone.