At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero.
$IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations.
At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless.
Looking ahead:
- Sweetwater 100% contracted
- With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR
- ARR Multiple 4x (conservative)
- Implied Value $34B
- Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal)
So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.
@BitcoinAIGuy It’s starting to feel like it was when it was $16k at the last bottom. FUD about MSTR defaulting was strong back then also. Maybe we head lower but at some point the weak hands will be gone.
If it trades at $50 then the yield is essentially 11.5% x 2 or 23%. This also includes the potential that it will one day return to par. That becomes interesting. At some point buyers will step in between here and $50. Or sellers will dry up. Holders bought it for the dividend so as the dividend gets sweeter they will not sell.
Almost just got scammed
Got a call from my 'bank' telling me my account was compromised and someone was trying to zelle out of my account
2 transactions and they gave me name, do I recognize it, no, and then told me good thing we caught it. Gave me cancellation codes and told me to hold on for a fraud department, then transferred me over, which sounded like they simply handed the phone over, to another person who then told me to give them the codes.
Then they tell me go into zelle, put in this case number (which was a phone number)... some Chinese name appeared and that is what did it for me.
I said "How do I know YOU are the bank, I'm hanging up and calling the bank" which I did, and of course it was all a hoax
Crazy part is their phone came from the bank name, and they sent me bank texts to seem legit, probably using my real number on the site to trigger the text or something.
BE SAFE OUT THERE, TRUST NO ONE THAT CALLS YOU