Introducing NEO’s 25 Degrees of Freedom, tendon-driven hands — nearing or surpassing human-level dexterity, strength, speed, and reliability.
For seventy years, robotics worked around the hand problem. The humanoid bet is the reverse: it lives or dies at the fingertips.
$NBIS Co-Founder Roman Chernin just spoke.
- On AI growth: We think the most growth is still ahead of us. The reason: AI adoption is still just taking off. Most cases still need to be solved. From technology perspective we only just now seeing the model being capable to solve enterprise problems. We only see now the what it can do in the business.
- On demand: The huge part part is coming from a limited number of the players (read Hyperscalers). Between 50/70% of the total demand. He calls $META and $GOOGL by name. The other 30% are smaller labs who build specialised models but we also see product companies (enterprises). They start from the application and are now starting to build their own models.
- On enterprise demand: Not much enterprise demand with 2 exceptions: -1 Revolut for example: they are digital by native and very technical, they invest very much in AI and grow very hard, others in this category Booking and Shopify. -2. fintec companies like janestreet also do a lot in AI. But if we put these 2 aside, the real enterprise adoption has not really started yet.
- On the layers: First layer is physical infrastructure, bare metal, we have a few customers who only want this layer. Second layer is cloud. This is the layer where most of the current demand is sitting. Any lab or team that does some training, they want to have reliable infrastructure but want the development to do themselves. Third layer that Nebius build is the infrastructure. Most enterprises just want to build applications on top of this layer. Revolut for example, most enterprises want to outsource this layer. They don’t need to own the infrastructure, they just want to build their apps on top.
- On paying for valuation: Nebius builds a product integrated downstack and upstack. They control the hardware and control the software. New consumption will come on the new layer. Enterprises don’t want to be an expert. They just want to use the tokens without locked by choosing which models. A platform that will choose which model is good for that outcome. Enterprises don’t want to pay for tokens or hardware but for the outcome. Users don’t care about how many hours of gpu they used or how many tokens.
- On deepseek: it creates a lot of panic in public markets but it’s really creating the next wave of development.
- On open source models: The open source models are catching up to some level and can already solve a lot of problems. Think about enterprise, you have very specific tasks in a specific environment. It’s an unlocking factor, how trainable are this models. The industry is figuring out how to tune the models, if they can, the adoption will start. Open source is the start but in the end you have post trained models that bring the value of the very specific knowledge of this specific enterprise. You get similar results somilar cheaper but often you have better results bacause you can inject your info safely.
Current hyperscaler 2026 capex: ~$725B
They all report earnings at the end of July, where they'll update 2026 capex forecasts.
Current 2026 capex:
$AMZN: ~$200B
$MSFT: ~$190B
$GOOGL: ~$190B
$META: ~$145B
With soaring memory costs as a key driver, surely all have to revise up capex for the rest of this year.
Happy Fourth, everyone. ⚡️
Hope you're all off the screens and enjoying the long weekend. Markets are closed, so this is the perfect time to catch up on some reading and give everyone a good read.
While I was building the humanoid supply-chain piece, I kept running into one subsystem that was so dense, so expensive, and so misunderstood that it needed its own article: the hand. It's up to $20,000 per unit, over 30% of a humanoid's entire bill of materials, and it turns out the money isn't where the diagrams tell you it is. The gearbox everyone points to is only 12% of the cost. Half the value lives in twenty pea-sized motors, and a third lives in a fingertip that has to feel five million times without dying.
Some names that show up in the piece: Harmonic Drive (6324.T), Nabtesco $6268.T, Novanta $NOVT, Renishaw RSW.L and STMicroelectronics $STM, plus a stack of Chinese A-share challengers undercutting the incumbents on price.
Go check it out in my substack for free:
https://t.co/wZz4xVLipy
Always amazing looking at $MU earnings:
Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est.
EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est.
Forecasts:
Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est
EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31.
“Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements”
"When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these"
Looks like memory demand has become structural…
But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.