memp∆w🐾

〰️随机漫步的Coder｜⛓On-chain Analysis｜🧗DYOR｜Cook Crypto👉

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

3/ 具体来看，BTC 4 年周期（即：前周期高⇒新周期高），拆解来看（周线图，天数也按 7D统计）：

前高⇒周期底：17/21/24 周期分别经历413/364/364 天

周期底⇒突破前高：17/21 周期分别经历749/728 天，本轮对应 24 年11 月

突破前高⇒周期高点：17/21 周期分别经历315/336 天，本轮对应 25 年底

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

思考行业性资金流向

Hyperscaler、A社O社都要融资，需要持续抽几千亿血来刷“卡”充值AI信仰。半导体老登反崩世界几千亿

如模型命门不破。市场应该在“杀估值”与“估值修复”间横跳

在半导体行业内会觉得的钱从天降、定价便宜。碰上一波修复就猛涨

别执念过去估值逻辑，年年回购和持续融资表现能一样吗

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

觉得永不能忘：财富≠钱

1. Capex vs 模型盈利的gap拉开而不是收窄

2. Hyperscaler只有两条路

a减少投入半导体崩掉，模型被举国的追赶

b加大投入，融资

现在显然是b，那么半导体盈利继续几何数增加。只会杀估值、难杀盈利！低PE泡沫

但投入需要融资，就兑现“财富”，兑现“信用”

市场整体估值高，有财富要做capex的，都将去融资，去借钱。他们估值必然承压，CDS必然要拉开

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

破 60k，继续持有空仓

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

“历史不会重复，但会押韵”

降息+FASB 生效+美国大选+BTC 4y cycle + BTC 减半周期 = 11/12 月

1/ 观察本轮周期(21-24)到目前为止和过去(13-17, 17-21)并没有实质性差异。
13 年之前由于基建匮乏（无 CEX + 门头沟时期），流动性低，参与者小众，周期特征与后续不同。

https://t.co/Y3Nkhmhgd8

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

空单止盈一次后，继续持有 ing

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

wtf

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

CLAUDE OPUS 4.8 JUST BROKE A $9 BILLION PRIVACY COIN. 🚨

A security researcher used Anthropic's new model to find a 4-year-old soundness bug in Zcash's Orchard pool.

The flaw could create unlimited, undetectable counterfeit $ZEC.

Discovered May 29. Patched June 3.

Could have been exploited for over 4 years. The team has no answer.

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

@IamRamenPanda 13.

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

@jason_chen998 时间拉长，剑哥搞不好在捡便宜🫡

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

@Murphychen888 M 大知行合一！我也是拿着空单的同时，计划定投，不全仓止盈等着哪天自然扫掉移动止损

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

https://t.co/tH7g0mvl4g

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

继续🈳

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

@Akkkizhang 我可能会结合 LTF 找机会空，哈哈哈抱歉，沉迷 AI 无法自拔

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

https://t.co/1hTnpVFeqV

[Solid Intel 📡 @solidintel_x]

INTEL: OVER $350M IN CRYPTO LONGS LIQUIDATED IN THE PAST HOUR

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

很多人不理解我为什么当时预言今年1Q后有个超级泡沫

翻出大半年前一个帖子解释下

2008-2014断断续续QE扩表对冲的实际上是持续金融去杠杆、加监管；

但现在去监管搞定时开闸，且没及时QT来对冲。这就好像逐步垒坝、蓄水，然后一下子放水

[DeepSeek @deepseek_ai]

🚀 DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced! Welcome to the era of cost-effective 1M context length.

🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Pro: 1.6T total / 49B active params. Performance rivaling the world's top closed-source models.
🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Flash: 284B total / 13B active params. Your fast, efficient, and economical choice.

Try it now at https://t.co/GCdiMzk1Dl via Expert Mode / Instant Mode. API is updated & available today!

📄 Tech Report: https://t.co/drlDrxkYtp
🤗 Open Weights: https://t.co/T13Y8i7SDM

1/n

[Kye Gomez (swarms) @KyeGomezB]

Introducing OpenMythos

An open-source, first-principles theoretical reconstruction of Claude Mythos, implemented in PyTorch.

The architecture instantiates a looped transformer with a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) routing mechanism, enabling iterative depth via weight sharing and conditional computation across experts.

My implementation explores the hypothesis that recursive application of a fixed parameterized block, coupled with sparse expert activation, can yield improved efficiency–performance tradeoffs and emergent multi-step reasoning.

Learn more ⬇️🧵

[Viktor Oddy @viktoroddy]

Claude Design is insane.

❤️‍🔥Just recorded a 18-min tutorial on how to build animated, award-winning websites with Claude Design + Opus 4.7!

[memp∆w🐾 @mempAw_LONG]

@Akkkizhang 我可能会结合 LTF 找机会空，哈哈哈抱歉，沉迷 AI 无法自拔

[Ruben Kostandyan @ruben_kostard]

Asked Opus 4.7 to make a Robot Finger for a future Robot Arm in ForgeCAD:

[spark @sparkjsdev]

Spark 2.0 is here! 🚀

We’re redefining what’s possible on the web with a streamable LoD system for 3D Gaussian Splatting.

Built on Three.js, you can now stream massive 100M+ splat worlds to any device from mobile to VR using WebGL2. All open-source.

Dive into the tech 👇

[shirish @shiri_shh]

someone built an OpenClaw agent that SELLS pool installations on autopilot.

finds $500k–$1.2M homes without pools

renders a pool in their backyard
and mails a before/after postcard.