@WeiJieFung1@michaelxpettis I suppose by deflation, pre-1914, you mean what's called in the US the Long Depression.
https://t.co/hQYyVHhFGI
I'm referring to China's problems with (a lack of) silver 500, or for that matter, 1000 years ago.
@WeiJieFung1@michaelxpettis There's nowhere near enough gold in the world to accommodate the current level of economic activity. A major historical problem for China was the lack of metallic (in their case silver) specie. Which, at the time, greatly distorted world economic activity.
@Bencera The truth is no one knows. I'm a mostly retired software developer and our son is a machine-learning engineer in SF.
Predictions are hard - especially about the future.
@marcosagusstinn China was the first country to ever (and by a very wide margin) produce > 1000 Mt/a but has now slipped just slightly back below that. Current #2 India produces 164.9 Mt/a.
@GrandpaRoy2 The Russians are maybe the world's great conspiracy theorists. That might work within their own history but is less true of the world at large.