daily prophet

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

Satellite data shed light on Russia’s modern-day gulags for Ukrainian children https://t.co/1iisq0QJFX

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged in one of the most brutal battles of the war, heavy fighting is ongoing underground in the Shebelinka-Ostrogozhsk gas pipeline, where soldiers are fighting in close quarters combat living in the tunnel system.

Wow...

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

VIDEO: The Kremlin is conducting an escalating series of kinetic campaigns against Europe. In this video, ISW Director of the Defense of Europe Project @Mason_R_Clark explains the Kremlin's objectives behind its activity in Europe and why naming it "hybrid attacks" and "provocations" might undermine an effective response.

The Kremlin is highly unlikely to conduct a large-scale conventional attack of a NATO state in the near future. NATO and Europe still face three challenges that should be considered in the face of Russian escalation.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

MORE: The Kremlin is fundamentally interested only in buying time to resolve the war on the battlefield while Russia simultaneously reaps the benefits of economic cooperation with the United States. ⬇️

Various Russian officials tried to present the October 21 meeting between US Special Representative to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin as evidence that Russia is willing to engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war while simultaneously attempting to extract economic concessions from the United States so that Russia can continue funding the war.

Other Russian officials meanwhile demonstrated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful concessions toward ending the war in Ukraine.

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

https://t.co/RHFPQEIxwt

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

SPECIAL REPORT: Russian military victory over Ukraine is not inevitable. It is extraordinarily unlikely, in fact, unless Western support for Ukraine collapses.

There is simply no inevitable correlation between the relative size of combatants and the outcome of a war — particularly when the war is existential for the smaller state but not for the larger one, as is true today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is nevertheless trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender.

Ukraine, not Russia, has actually held the initiative in key sectors of the frontline for much of the year and has developed a number of ways of offsetting the overall Russian manpower advantage.

Russia’s population and relative (but diminishing) wealth will let Putin continue his war for a long time, to be sure. But Ukraine can also continue fighting for its existence as long as Western support continues.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

The speed limits on Starlink and Starshield are still there. The speed has not been restored. And the delivery of interceptors to protect us against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We’re waiting for interceptors that were already agreed on. But they are still not coming. This is a real problem, because the Russians attack us almost every single day.

All of this is happening while we continue our quite successful operations on the front. We keep defending positions. Things have become harder – partly because of the Starlink and Starshield policies and speed limits. But our frontline is still holding and I am proud of how strong our people are.

From an address at the Hudson Institute. (2/3)

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

https://t.co/xuLgSy1M6X

[jezz @JezziiB]

JD Vance just said that ''America isn't obligated to stand by Ukraine because they aren't in a formal alliance.''

Dear JD. Vance,
Look up ''Budapest Memorandum 1994.''

You are welcome.

[How To Prompt @HowToPrompt__]

Researchers mathematically proved that AI will cause something worse than mass unemployment.

They call it “The Tragedy of the Cognitive Commons.”

Every industry relies on a shared pool of deep professional expertise. This expertise doesn't just magically appear. It regenerates generation after generation.

How? Through struggle.

Junior employees do the hard, repetitive, frustrating work. In exchange, they slowly build what researchers call "Internalized Mastery."

But right now, AI is completely annihilating junior-level work.

Companies are celebrating massive productivity boosts by automating the entry-level grind. (Anthropic’s own data shows their technical junior hiring has plunged 33% as AI agents take over the pipeline).

It looks like efficiency. But it is actually a time bomb.

The researchers highlight a concept called the "Validation Tether."

Effective human oversight of AI depends entirely on deep domain expertise. When an AI hallucinates or makes a critical error, a human expert catches it.

The experts validating AI outputs today look competent because they spent a decade doing the grunt work before AI existed.

The terrifying question the paper asks is this:

Who comes after them?

When the current generation of experts retires, there will be no one left with the Internalized Mastery required to spot when the machine is wrong. We are completely severing the pipeline that creates human competence.

We are trading our long-term intellectual independence for short-term productivity boosts.

Every time you let AI bypass the struggle, you are borrowing expertise from the future.

And the interest rate is our ability to think for ourselves.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

The US capital needs are entirely funded by Europe and China.

As the US is becoming adversarial, those much needed capital flows will be stopped if not reversed.

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

@drandreasbeck Etc. etc. einfach mal mit beschäftigen

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

@drandreasbeck Deutschland bucht die Zahlungen der Krankenkassen an Ärzte und Kliniken (rund 8 % des BIP) weitgehend als Staatskonsum. In den USA laufen Medicare und Medicaid (rund 6 bis 7 % des BIP) als Sozialleistungen an Haushalte und tauchen im privaten Konsum auf.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

terrifying warning from Anthropic’s
Jason Clinton that i believe to be correct, along with (in the thread) an argument that maybe the current chaos will eventually subside.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. https://t.co/8AyV60gg1X

[Madison Mills @MadisonMills22]

SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.

The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.

Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.

Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.

Read my latest for Axios here: https://t.co/Q3bda5In8q

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Wake up.
Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

https://t.co/B2bmjaJrAY

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

@bundeskanzler Wann wird die Wohnungsknappheit wirksam adressiert????

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

@RayDalio https://t.co/7YvUDQkMGJ

[Marathon Fusion @MarathonFusion]

In 2025, we published a bold proposal to use fusion reactors for gold production.

And now we’ve done it: Mercury transmuted into stable gold, using fusion neutrons, at 10x the record set by CERN in 2025.

We’ve reduced alchemy to a series of difficult but tractable engineering problems.

[daily prophet @Michael03012649]

@RayDalio What about this:

[Marathon Fusion @MarathonFusion]

Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.

Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.

Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.